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There is a permit application to locate the rig for Lincoln appraisal well entry in 25Oct with SAT Start date of 1Dec
Paul B Loyd Jnr rig
Someone will need to confirm the well drill date...
This could possibly be the first of three wells to be drilled in GWA next
Biffa
Agree with your 12.21 post re GLA drills. While PBLJ likely for GWA, until we get a bit closer, let's not rule out an accelerated GLA schedule too.
As ever, wait and see.
Hi treaty,
I agree that at the moment the opportunity for large scale trading is very limited. The main reason is that there is a big unknown on the immediate horizon. That's why the SP is in the doldrums.
What I was alluding to are the extreme swings in the SP over a period of time. Big positions are built at the bottom, the SP is tickled up and then they all bail and short it back down again.
For example, the quick build up to FOIL and the sell off immediately thereafter.
GLA.
Biff
"HUR are being played by the big institutional traders, that's the fact of the matter."
I don't see how anyone at the moment is making much capital from this seemingly level share price. Can you explain
how the large institutional share holders are making more than a minimum amount here and with shorts being low
they don't seem to be playing this tight share price range. It would hardly be worth their while.
I agree with others that HUR management are orchestrating the news flow to keep a lid on the SP.
The rig is on hire for 255 days. Could there be time to squeeze in an extra drill if say 60 - 65 days per drill? It would presumably require agreement with Spirit and no doubt some financial adjustment .
Hi Alexious,
That's what it says in the corporate presentations and I think most on here are aware of that, however AS alluded to bringing the drilling forward on GLA to 2020 at the CMD in July 2019.
Whilst the PBLJ has been booked for 2020, it has yet to be announced where it will be drilling, although GWA is the most likely area.
GLA.
3×Appraisal/Production wells to be drilled in GWA from Q2 next year
Additional Rona Ridge weels drilled from Q2 2021 in GLA
Hi MCB55,
Good point regarding the lead time on rig hire.
That would mean HUR would have to refinance the CBs (as opposed to just buying them back from the cash pile) if they also want to drill GLA in 2020.
Speaking of rig hire. It would be nice to know where the PBLJ will be drilling in 2020. GLA or GWA ?
HUR have been unusually quiet about this. Maybe all will become clear after the WW result.
On a separate note, the CBHs are not controlling the SP. Once they have taken out their initial short position as part of a CB arbitrage strategy, they tend to only make fairly minor adjustments to the short position going forward. The aim is to achieve a delta neutral strategy and receive the 7.5% coupon on a relatively risk free basis. One only needs to look at Polygon's short position to see that the changes over time are not substantial.
HUR are being played by the big institutional traders, that's the fact of the matter.
GLA.
petethestreet,
"WW it has taken a painfully long time for me to realise CB arbitrage is holding this SP"
Well I'm not buying that story. Not 100%, at least. Otherwise, how to explain the peaks in October of last year, and May this year? The CB's were issued in the 2017 fundraise, and I don't think any more have been issued since. There are other forces at play as well.
Biffa,
"I would love HUR to be shot of the CBHs and the golden ticket would be to take out another loan to do this and drill GLA in 2020."
I totally agree with you.
However given the lead time to book a rig for drilling GLA, then this decision has to be made early 2020. I cannot quite see all the stars aligning for that right now though.
The alternative is a farm in for 50% into GLA to get a free carry on the new GLA drill programme, AND then they can also buy back the CB's in 2020!?
"I think AS intends to and it is probably why nothing has been said about further drilling next year."
I though we had a drilling rig booked next year already?
That's a key point.
It could well boil down to a choice of drilling GLA in Q2/Q3 2020 or buying out the CBs.
However, it's important to remember that once we have past the 14th August 2020, the SP must be over 78 cents for this to happen.
Only then can HUR buy back the CBs at par plus accrued interest. That's when things might get a little interesting.
I would love HUR to be shot of the CBHs and the golden ticket would be to take out another loan to do this and drill GLA in 2020.
It's important to understand that HUR had to go the CB route to get the 2017 $530M deal off the ground. The CBs sweetened the purchase of the straight equity and I doubt the deal would have got off the ground otherwise. CBs do tend to have lower interest rates attached but this comes with considerable downside. IMHO.
GLA.
wellwell
"The CO should deal with these CB’s at the earliest opportunity"
I think AS intends to and it is probably why nothing has been said about further drilling next year.
As seen last Friday, if WW comes up with the goods CB’s shorts will be blown out of the water.
WW it has taken a painfully long time for me to realise CB arbitrage is holding this SP. and I realise it has been discussed over and over here. but I’m a bit slow.
Thanks DC . Appreciated.
The CO should deal with these CB’s at the earliest opportunity; by borrowing if necessary. I’m hoping that’s in the summer. Whilst taking on debt may not sound palatable, in this case it’s just replacing one type of debt with another but is preferable to the CB’s.
petethestreet
The convertible bond offering was part of the fund raising, together with the issue of equity in 2017 to pay for the Lancaster EPS
The offer:
http://ir1.q4europe.com/IR/Files/RNSNews/18985376/Hurricane2018tf_13636271.pdf
Results of offer:
http://ir1.q4europe.com/IR/Files/RNSNews/18985376/Hurricane2018tf_13636627.pdf
The number of potential Ordinary Shares that could be issued if all the Convertible Bonds were converted is 442,307,692 (assuming conversion at the initial conversion price of $0.52).
see
http://ir1.q4europe.com/IR/Files/RNSNews/18985376/Hurricane2018tf_14451277.pdf
page 19
"If you have ever attended an AGM you will be aware that the company are keen to monetise the assets as soon as possible. However to do so and get a fair price is has to be shown that they have the capability of going it alone."
This is it in a nutshell. HUR absolutely will be taken over at some point in the next 2 years. If this well comes through then it is even more likely as more and more capital is required. As potential buyers will be getting production analysis data well ahead of the general market I wouldn't be surprised if it is within the next few months.
But there is some canny negotiation to be done to get the most from whichever big buyer comes along. They MUST push and push the line that they can go it alone. It's basic deal brokering.
The fact that as time goes on they DO actually seem competent enough to go it alone can only drive up the takeover price.
When did the CB deal appear? I thought it was on the £52 mill fund raise but looking at the RNS - no.
Can anyone point me to the RNS date.
Albi/BB,
Look at Biffadogs posts on Oct 2nd, Re Bonds, think you will both find what you are looking for.
Thanks Beerbelly, all good pointers. Will revisit past research and see what I can piece together. Lemon fool may have some useful info on this too.
Hi Albi, something may occur on or around the 24 July 2020....but it depends on various factors. I think I may have seen some different threads on the subject but it it is very hard to find them on lse. There are some real experts on this board and I am not one of them.
So Beerbelly / Malchaufa - what brings a stop to this 'scalping'? When do we orbit out of the range of these delightful folk?
Thanks malchaufa, that's what I was after...
" This constant hedging by buying and selling ensures the holder is always market neutral. Profit is derived from “scalping”, ie constant trading back and forth. It is common to see smaller stocks “range bound” as these players dominate trading in the market"