Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
SPG2
Appreciate your observations, all sound stuff. I see a rise in SP regardless at some point in the not so distant future - certainly by January if not on the footsteps of blindingly excellent WW results - but the rest, at the moment is a mystery unsolved - at least to me!
Divecentre
Hoped to attend the AGM this year, but failing that read around various reports. Yes, that is also a valid argument - that Hur have to prove the concept to a certain point before bidders jump in. It's a point I've kept in mind and has kept me invested to date. But, to clarify my own thinking, interested in hearing views of others on the questions I've had in mind but didn't, until today, want to ask.
A while ago a very helpful poster posted some excellent links on the subject of convertible bond arbitrage. Unfortunately I can't find the posts on LSE. However I read some of the links and one quote went something along the lines of:
"Some investors are often puzzled about why the share price seems anchored around the conversion price...it is a result of the arbitrage strategies" HTH ...roll on next summer.
Hi again Albi; yes, sometimes AK also hints at this, i think. But if there is a 'secret deal' (that may be dependant on the current 6-12m proving-up of Lancaster), cui bono? And if said 'deal' is giving rise to the bod's apparent disinterest in the sp, how does that not invite a hostile bid at a price that does not realise maximal value to the shareholders?? OK, WD and K's 105m sale shot Hur's market confidence (and sp!) with a barrel in each foot, but jeez, the sp was higher when the AM left Dubai than since. And wouldn't the sale of a significant asset need to be approved by the s'holders? Why is/are shareholders selling? I stick to my guns: the sp is whre it is because of the double whammy allied to lack of Rightfork; having played a blinder raising the initial funds to develop, we are now at the mercy of the market, and that is a strategic blunder. imo.
gla
p.s. at least more fpso's have appeared on the plan! But they need to be serious!! Anyway, i like the sound of Liza Lancaster.
Albi1
If you have ever attended an AGM you will be aware that the company are keen to monetise the assets as soon as possible. However to do so and get a fair price is has to be shown that they have the capability of going it alone.
EV,
Think you've had a hard time of it on here lately. Your posts were always objective reading them through. I can sympathise with not wanting to lose hard earned money.
Overall - I feel most of us are in the dark on a higher level as to what is really happening here, but nonetheless I feel safer here, given the fundamental business case, than in most stocks on AIM or the FTSE for that matter, given the 'B' situation. My personal 'punt' is Hur know what they're doing. Me, the little guy, might benefit by a 20%, 50% , 100%, 200% or more increase in my personal investment - I'll take that, having rebalanced my risk many months ago and I am in love with the story.
Just to be clear, I'm playing Devil's Advocate here ... doesn't hurt to examine all the angles - and the more minds the merrier!
Divecentre
Yes and mutually beneficial to boot ....
SPG2,
Some time ago I asked myself the question - mmm, what if Hurricane actually want to run the show long term? It's in a post a good year or so back and I'll dig it up if I have to but not immediately as have a job to do and money to earn. If it weren't for the current political climate I'd say - yay! Go for it. But given the current political climate it kind of puts an edge on things - in terms of investor sentiment, pension funds and all that and attracting big IIs. I don't see dividends featuring in an exploration / producer for a long time to be fair.
What I am beginning to ask is - what if there was some kind of gentlemen's agreement struck way back - if we can do this much - will you do that much? That none of us are remotely privy to but that would be in the interests of the BoD?
re previous: apologies for dp (decimal-point, dudes!) typo; 5 x 3.3 x 10^7 = 16.5 x 10^8 $/yr; should of course read 5 x 3.3 x 10^7 = 1.65 x 10^8 $/yr....oops.
gla
ALbi; agree with you re reasons for being 'in'. I posted over the weekend relating to the possibility of divi's in future, and, as AK correctly pointed-out, the co'y have stated in the past that such a thing won't be happening: the co'ys #1 strategy is that a Lancaster 6-to-12 month asessment should provide convincing evidence of the reservoir volume and thus attract an acquirer, the cash value somehow then being returned to shareholders. Following the same strategy, quite how the value of LinWick might be realised I don't know: If Spirit wish to keep the asset as a cas cow (assuming it is good), how easy will it be for Hur to sell their half? So my 'divi's' comment was framed by a supposition: the majors/supermajors all get investment cold-feet which turn gangrenous green - a 'buyer's strike', or bow-out. Where/what is the Plan B? The co'y finds itself with a monster asset (let's say, just for supposition and hubris' sake, 1bn recoverable bbl at each of the two paired areas, or 1.5 bn bbl of Hur's own. No buyer emerges at a shareholder-acceptable price: ??? FPSO. Big. 100k bbl/d x $30 x 330 d/yr = $1bn/yr. Allocate 5/bbl to pay for fpso(s)= 5 x 3.3 x 10^7 = 16.5 x 10^8 $/yr; 10 yrs gives $1.65bn., a 100% return over the cost of a new 220k bbl/d fpso. [ i also note the recent article relating cost of fpso build funding for a Liza-class being made at Libor + 1.5% - and the Euro Libor is currently -0.565% (!)......even the maxed (likely to decrease imo) US rate is only iro 1.76%, making the loan rate ~ 3.25%...] So I do not see any serious difficulty creating HurProCo, shipping 220bbl/d or even 440k bbl/d or more, hence my divi numbers. Sorry AK, we must agree to disagree here; i think it might be a go-er, and if Lanfax still is owned by Hur next August, it might be the that Plan B needs to be well and truly launched. Like Brex**** however, imo a bad hand is held without the full intention to pursue Plan B: In fact, it would be better to call them Plan LeftFork, and Plan RightFork, with no priority. Otherwise we might get to 2021 and be completely forked. imo.
gla
“how is it in Hurricane's interests to keep the SP down?”
HUR have no interest in suppressing the sp.
Is it conceivable that there may be other interested parties who are?
In truth I am beginning to ask myself a bigger question and this, I fully acknowledge, may be a bit out there, but nonetheless - how is it in Hurricane's interests to keep the SP down? Question 1: Could it be? Have we missed something in our eagerness to make a profit?
Divecentre
OK, so to drill down into the various arguments: we need IIs onboard. What prevents them? AIM listing and proven data. Right that's that then. Then we have the growing political momentum of Climate Change activists and pressure on our political parties to act plus a growing sentiment: oil is bad: green is good. As far as PIs are concerned, it seems we are a mixed bunch: some trading, some holding long term, some clueless but taking a punt, some not so clueless but taking a punt regardless, some in love with the story and holding. I'm probably a mix of all of the above at any given point in time depending on my personal financial needs - not being in the happy position of having an abundance of cash to invest.
Albi1
“What I'm not clear on is how the SP is where it is today. “
It is were it is because there are still too many investors who lack confidence in the expectation that HUR succeed and the question to ask is why is that so.
My initial reason for investing back in January 2018 still stands. What I'm not clear on is how the SP is where it is today. I have read the many different reasons put forward over the last two years and frankly am none the wiser for it. In my mind it is very clear, resources are continuously being proved up, data will emerge and at some point something else will happen. What is the likelihood of the SP remaining at this level? Unlikely in my opinion. What is the likelihood of a SP changing event? Likely to very likely. When will that be? God alone knows! Till then I'm holding.