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There's something I can't help wondering about, for a while now. And assorted media articles reinforce my wondering.
Despite living in France, I subscribe to the 'Times' online, just to vaguely keep track with UK things. And yet again today, there was an article in the business section about that AIM-listed disaster - area Sirius, aka SXX.
Now as anyone whose brain contains more thinking-matter than a BigMac, comparing HUR to SXX is like making a comparison between a Lockheed F115 and a wasp. Sure they both fly, in the same way that both HUR and SXX are both involved with getting something out of the ground, but there the comparison ends.
What interested me in today's 'Times' article was a figure they gave about the number of SXX 'retail investors' there are supposed to be who are going to either have to take a hefty loss, or maybe lose everything. They quote 85,000. This surprised me, and no doubt that large number no doubt no longer includes spread-bettors who can't be properly called 'retail investors', and have already been wiped-out.
I suspect there must be qute a number of domestic arguments going on amongst those 85,000, along the lines of where hubby has put the household money into, how is the mortgage now going to be paid, especially now the house has also suffered flood-damage?
Because there's just one common factor. The sort of people who might have invested in SXX as 'PI's' are very likely to be the same sort of people who may have invested in HUR, and are now feeling the pinch.
SXX is now effectively 'in collapse', one way or another. People have lost money.
HUR is not, however 'in collapse'. In fact, quite the opposite. But yet there are a slew of people trying to try to convince the HUR PI community via BB's and websites which bona-fide institutions don't waste their time watching that that is the case.
I'm not saying that this is 'the bottom' in SP terms, but the wavering around of the SP at current levels makes me thing of 'bottom-feeders' really scraping the barrel, and desperate.
I've only started this thread because it's an instinctive thing which has been bugging me, and it'd be interesting to see some other peoples' views. It's almost a 'socialogical' thing rather than 'financial'. Because I'm sure that the number of people prepared to put their money into tech AIM shares is finite and limited, and I think that we're seeing a knockon effect from another company which if not gone bust (and their investors likewise) is grabbing at a straw.
Badmouthing HUR being one of those straws.
'the wavering around of the SP at current levels makes me thing of 'bottom-feeders' really scraping the barrel, and desperate.'
Can you please elaborate, Double?
awk - interesting post.
I do think hur has suffered fallout from other AIM shares collasping. last year I had made great gains on HUR /ECO/I3E.....and then all of a sudden probably in the space of a month they all collasped. i made i3e losses back by trading the bounce. ECO i have just left as most of the loss was profit and i still have hope it will come good. Hur was always my darling - i have always really liked the concept and trice in a funny sort of way.
a lot of other investors probably lost a lot on ECO/I3E and as you say SXX. As you rightly say hur would have probably attracted a lot of the same investors. so maybe it had a knock on effect in terms of sentiment - and when the sp was diving they panicked and thought something is better than nothing. it has been a rolling snowball in a way.
in my mind the drills of last year were only a small part of the total value and so the poor result should have lost max 15% in my opinion. the increase to 20k could've/should've got it back.
@AD
Unfortunately money and greed brings out the very worst in people and these boards are a perfect way to try to sow seeds of doubt as often as they see fit without having to back up any negative statements. Robone, TSD and the bartle character are three I have seen on this board. Their MO always seems to be the same, one or two lines of negative sentiment, that garners generally polite responses, but they tend not to respond to the replies and certainly do not engage in any technical discussions. A perfect example was someone earlier stating that no news was bad news regardless of the statement made by the BOD relating to notifying the market if operations were to stray from the guidance they gave. They ignored this and posted the same message again a few hours later.
My take is there are a few reasons for these type of posters:
1. Schadenfreude-they really enjoy seeing people lose money and rubbing peoples noses in it and have no financial interest in the company. Maybe because they have previously done their nuts on AIM (maybe even the company they are posting about) and look for companies where the SP has dropped dramatically and want to gloat.
2. They have an open short-fair enough but why not declare it? They very rarely do.
3. They believe their comments may be able to convince enough people to sell and therefore drop the price further. If so they are misguided at best.
I know there is lots of talk on these BB’s about posters being paid to knock companies and there may be a small grain of truth (I have no info to support or refute this) in that but hell what a way to make a living.
I have no problem with people posting alternative views if it is backed up and certainly over the years i have saved a few quid by listening to them. However the lickspittles that have been rampant on here do not fall into this category.
dryland - i always assume its number 3. i think one would only stay on a board if you were interested or got burnt. HUR hasn't done anything to burn people (lies etc) and so i just assume that they want the lowest entry point possible. they will trade the bounce knowing that actually the company is sound and will go up with time
CS this is from 2016 but still worth a read
https://www.stockopedia.com/blog/can-you-beat-the-market-reading-stock-market-bulletin-boards-144414/
haha - thanks for the link......food for thought indeed!
dryland,
"I have no problem with people posting alternative views if it is backed up and certainly over the years i have saved a few quid by listening to them. However the lickspittles that have been rampant on here do not fall into this category."
YES. Big 10-4.
Myself, I initially invested in HUR based purely on technical basis, and it remains that way. And along the road, I've seen things come to fruition, technically. The success of the '7-well' campaign and others, the FPSO installation (that was a long story), a so-far successful EPS result 'exceeding expectations' per the company, and so on.
So just because I'm showing a 'paper loss' so far, why on earth should I sell? I've still 'got a chip and a chair', so have no reason to believe I'll end up (when?) a loser.
None of the 'negatives' are supported by any tangible facts. Simply innuendo.
AD
I first invested in HUR back in the day prior to the Lancaster drill...havent been invested here for a few years until recently and currently sitting with what i guess is a better average than most at a tad over 18p.
As for a chip and a chair i am with you on that...that's my mantra too...played a few games over the years but few and far between now and only online.
The common theme was that they were both retail investors favourites, recommended to mates and work colleagues, all attracted by those sky high potential, no certain, returns to be had because the knowledgeable ramped them up on websites and they were daring to do something different, that no one else had picked up on, made them more attractive. That was why they offered this certainty to virgin (or naive) investors.
[Had to smile at the Lady Day comment earlier, and wondered then where the similarity should be drawn: on the f***ing of a virgin or what DrT would annunciate.]
And it came to pass, that SXX could not get the finance together, and is to be sold at a knock-down price.
Whereas HUR could not get the farm-in/buy-out anticipated; and the mega return became diluted by the fund raising.
Then the billions of barrels started to reduce. Tempest/Typhoon were trimmed and pruned, then ceded.
Then Strathmore was written down and surrendered.
Then Whirlwind.
All while GLA was not living up to its much anticipated success, for the retained 50%.
But fear not Lancaster is delivering ahead of plan [one of the BOD bonus measures, jfyi].
There is both unexpected water and natural flow.
People become unduly attached to their shares and cling on to them waiting for the huge return, without realising they are going down and unlikely to get back to that level, but they might and FOMO rules. Not that they have an exit plan, it's probably 'spare' cash anyway. Hard earned, but just the kids inheritance...and hopefully not destined for the care home.
But HUR SP collapse is 'unexplained'.
The expectations delivered at the last CMD have come to the greater part of SFA.
The relationship with the OGA is either dire, or being misrepresented.
The Lincoln well is on P1368 South.
The rest of the GWA licence, p2294, expires in October. What will they (that's HUR and/or the JV) agree? 50% areal surrender to continue is the starting fee, obligations extra.
And Halifax comes up at the end of the year, obligations extra.
So the potential Resources to HUR are much diminished, and the road to Reserves is slow, with both dangerous bends and dense fog.
Let the love-in continue.
joe - i would agree with you that the assets have been trimmed. however there is still plenty enough and they are streamlining the best bits. halifax has always been the big one - and thats sitting there nicely in the background
however you are wrong - GLA is more than living up to its anticipated success as the company keeps stating. the water is still considered perched and has not affected flow rates (touch wood)
the thing is that if the CMD works out well it would be stupid to sell. At this price the amount of oil produced is covering its market cap. so it looks decent bet at worst.
JoeSoap,
Your message is disingenuous and misleading.
"Whereas HUR could not get the farm-in/buy-out anticipated; and the mega return became diluted by the fund raising."
It has already obtained a farm-in, with Spirit on GWA. The fundraising was utterly necessary to finance the FPSO and subsequent EPS (currently going great guns, so we're led to believe), and without which nothing would be 'marketable' to a bigger partner.
"Then the billions of barrels started to reduce. Tempest/Typhoon were trimmed and pruned, then ceded.
Then Strathmore was written down and surrendered."
The 'billions of barrels' subsist. The 'fields you quote were peanuts.
"Then Whirlwind."
Recently. But Whirlwind has always been something of a 'weirdo'. "Gassy', oil quality unresolved, deeper water. Personally I'm happy it's been relinquished, 'cos it doesn't quite fit the core strategy.
" HUR SP collapse is 'unexplained'."
Or rather, as per RNS, there are no material 'commercial, production, or subsurface' explanations.
"So the potential Resources to HUR are much diminished, and the road to Reserves is slow, with both dangerous bends and dense fog."
I would like to know how you reach such a conclusion, given the upcoming drilling campaign, the company's stated committment to 'debottlenecking' the FPSO including tie-in to WOSP, and so on. Regarding the letter, tie-in will be simple. Unlike making a completely new tunnel under the Yorkshire moors...
"Let the love-in continue."
Doubt if anyone's on Exstasy here! But respect, an occasional glass of whisky and a zen attitude to things certainly help.
Heck, I'm more or less getting on my last legs financially, but hope that the realisation of an asset will bring me some cash money within the week, and when it does I'm certainly going to 'top-up' here again.
Cap't Swag,
"the thing is that if the CMD works out well it would be stupid to sell. "
As I've said in earlier posts, I don't believe there are many 'genuine' PI's now involved in the buying and selling. Unless they're desperate. What we're seeing now is just 'the market' j*cking itself off.
(Good evidence for this being the number of newbies infesting this once interesting BB.)
I'm very interested by the quietness of CA. Also Kerogen. Together, they could move in suddenly and skyrocket this once more back to where it should be, and wipe out the bottom-feeders. If not them, someone else.
dryland,
"As for a chip and a chair i am with you on that...that's my mantra too...played a few games over the years but few and far between now and only online."
Ah, someone who understands! And you wouldn't believe who else who posts on this BB also does, but I'm mentioning no names!
I agree with everything you write, Double.
JoeSoap's article reminds me of Jamie Ashcroft's and James Hosie's - it's just amazing how well they are crafted to make it look as though things have gone so badly for HUR.
E.g., 'Then Whirlwind.'
Yes, Joe, Whirlwind was too much - the final straw, after the ever-growing 'water cuts', the huge 'debt', the 'falling' production, the 'unstable' production, the 'dependence' on financiers and corporate rainmakers.
I could just about carry on, in spite of those, and even after the 'failure' of the GWA drilling campaign, but after Whirlwind ...
Longwait,
"'the wavering around of the SP at current levels makes me thing of 'bottom-feeders' really scraping the barrel, and desperate.'
Can you please elaborate, Double?"
OK, why not? But please accept that these are just late-night rambling musings, and shouldn't be taken as anything more than that.
I feel a tipping point for this SP decline was the Kerogen sell. And 'the market' (or rather, their media) leaped on that as a negative sign, end henceforth have exploited it to the utmost extent. Myself , though, I saw it as an obvious move by Kerogen to get almost into a 'freeride' position.
However, it released a significant wodge of shares into a part of the aquarium inhabited by sharks and other nasties. Who have gone into a feeding-frenzy, with PI's as the easiest prey. Circumstances (SXX being just one of them, Greta, and now the Chinese 'flu being the latest one) helping things for them.
In another of your earlier posts, LW, you flattered my by saying I knew more about 'shorting' than yourself. And I don't think that's the case. But I do know that 'shorting' (in whatever form) is essentially share-trading 'on tick'. There are one or two or three ways of doing that, but either way it means that one can 'walk' the share-price whichever way one wants, using the shares one has as 'security', or even shares borrowed from someone else. Just so long as one's credit remains good with the broker, the scam works.
To the detriment of the actual PI of course, who was 'banking' on the investment in a viable company, but sees his money going south.
Now on AIM, how many of us haven't bought into something we thought was the best thing since sliced bread and has turned out otherwise? But the hype has continued, the BoD have continued high on the hog, and we've lost money? Hands up!
I have, in the past, don't mind admitting it. Hence my agreement with that 'robone' character about never walking into a casino with more money than you can afford to lose.
But things are a little bit queer here, with this HUR thing. In a casino, if you play the slot-machines, in the longterm you'll lose 14% guaranteed, or maybe everything. But won't mind if you've had 'fun'. But HUR is no game of chance. Yet there are some people trying to tell us it is. And that instead of wasting our money on that, we'd be better off in their massage-parlour.
This share is no longer 'volatile'. Just bumping along the bottom. 15p? 16p? 20p? Big deal. It'll go back up 50p+ sometime soon, no sweat.
Longwait,
"I agree with everything you write, Double. "
In that case I advise you to call 999 and get yourself booked into a mental home straight away.
You misunderstood me, Double!
I don't agree with EVERYTHING you write; I meant I agree with everything you wrote in that post of yours.
But I am in a mental institution of a sort - the one known as AIM, with (some) delusional posters and attending scribblers and crazy prices.
PS
Longwait,
We were obviously writing at the same time! I wonder wherJiffyBag (usually on the 'nightshift' has gone to?
JS,
Re: 'The relationship with the OGA is either dire, or being misrepresented.'
Please elaborate/expand.
LW,
Writing at the same time again!
"I don't agree with EVERYTHING you write; I meant I agree with everything you wrote in that post of yours."
(Assuming the one to To JoeSoap. Yeah. Understood.)
"But I am in a mental institution of a sort - the one known as AIM, with (some) delusional posters and attending scribblers and crazy prices."
Hence my trip to Marrakesh in three weeks' time and playing poker 14 hours a day. Hope to make some money to bide me through these misinformational times on AIM and regarding HUR! At least there and in that context I can become misinformational and profit from it with a clear conscience, because that's how the thing works. But it's shameful that a London-based stockmarket allows such behaviour.
:-))
Adouk,
Re HUR V SXX etc.
There is absolutely no similarity at all imo.
I invested in SXX and have lost a small wedge, BUT, one has to look into the reasons as to why SXX failed to come up with the finance, and when you look into the SXX situation in depth, you will find imho, it is because the BOD's were not only incompetent, but also had prior connections with AAL, that is a fact, and on the surface looks like this was done deal always in the making, at the same time as raising a placing for finance whilst also discussing a relationship with AA,L unbeknown at the time to SXX SH's.
SXX have already garnered some agreed 13.5 Million tonnes of orders, known as TORPS, to secure future revenues.
There is now a concerted campaign and opinion / belief amongst remaining PI's, that should a 'No Vote' to the takeover win, and many are of that opinion it may succeed, then bond holders, ie Qatari's and others may assist in raising alternative finance in order to secure their Bond investment, as administration would wipe the bonds out. (The Qatari's had already offered a bridging option but backed down after the AAL offer, assuming that their bonds would be safe on takeover. That position is still at Risk imo.
Basically, investors in SXX have suffered imo, because of the companies reliance on JPM as advisors.
JiffyBag,
"Re: 'The relationship with the OGA is either dire, or being misrepresented.'
Please elaborate/expand."
I believe it to be entirely misrepresented, and used us a 'weapon' by the cabal trying to 'bring down' Hurricane Energy. (Because really, without wishing to sound conspiracy-theorist, that's what I see. A deliberate attempt to disenfranchise the company of which I'm a shareholder.)
OGA and HUR have obviously so far had a very close relationship. And it is part of OGA's mandate to be proactive in encouraging UK oil-related projects.
The cast-iron proof of this is the surprise, 'out-of-round' allowance of acquisition to Hurricane of all the NE sector all the way up to Halifax, a couple of years ago.
We have absolutely no reason to believe that such a situation has changed. People (negative) have jumped on the fact that the company has stated that Lincoln Crestal may have to be P&A unless OGA allows an 'extension' to the well remaining suspended as is. However, nothing has indicated that such an extension won't be granted. In fact, a few nights ago in another post on roughly the same subject, I wrote that I thought it would be 'criminal' for that not to be done.
Afterwards, on re-reading my post, I thought I'd overstepped the mark. But now, maybe not.
If LC gets P&A'd, yes, it will mean that there's been something 'dire' that's happened in the HUR / OGA relationship, possibly relating to Spirit, but also political, but equally maybe relating to Shell and BP who've 'coralled' all the licences around Rona Ridge that don't belong to Hurricane.
If that happens, there may be some money in it for me! By putting my 'investigative journalism' hat back on.
But no, I reckon all's OK.
AK,
Re: 'However, nothing has indicated that such an extension won't be granted. In fact, a few nights ago in another post on roughly the same subject, I wrote that I thought it would be 'criminal' for that not to be done.'
I would very much like that to be the case as you say, but what about the Energy Voice article?
'The Paul B Loyd is booked up to work for the operator up until October, with work coming up to plug and abandon the Lincoln Crestal well in March.'?
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/224584/hurricane-energy-books-transocean-rig-for-october-drilling/
I think at the very least, HUR should update us all on such a decision via RNS.
JiffyBag,
Wrt Your SXX investment.
My Commiserations.
You give a reasonable explanation for the traincrash the whole thing's become.
But your post just illustrates the point I was trying to make in my own earlier one.
I have a real suspicion that the SXX debacle has been deliberately manipulated as a way to discredit HUR.