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Anyone of our ship-watching friends have any clues about an offload? If we are 20k bopd for the last 19 days then it would seem we are due one
I think this is an 'elephant in the room' at the moment (hate that expression!), its on everyones mind but we aren't talking about it. I asked a similar thing about a week ago, and didn't get a reply! If the production is as expected then the AM must be starting to bulge at the sides. The weather is probably the main factor at present, its one thing sailing a big boat in this weather but another to bob up and down transferring oil. Lets hope production doesn't have to be suspended while waiting for the weather.
In fact news may provide a SP impetus as it shows more pennies in the coffers and that the promised production seems to be on course.
I believe the Aoka Mizu can hold approx 600,000 barrels, the last offload was on the 21st January when we were running at 12,900 barrels approx... So at 12,900 barrels until the 31st Of January = 129,000 barrels approx and then if we assume that both wells started running concurrently at 20,000 barrels for the 19 days of February to date = 380,000 so all in all approx 500,000/510,000 barrels give or take meaning we only have approx 4/5 days of capacity left on the Aoka Mizu so we should be expecting an offload very soon!
"the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."
Early next week, (Tuesday), and the largest offload so far. Just my opinion/possibly a wild guess !!! WTFWIK anyway.
thanks Densh. I guess if she is full to capacity then the actual offload may be restricted by the taker that turns up.
So we shouldn't necessarily read anything into an offload less than we expect (given the offload date)?
Not much blood in the streets where I am SonsofGwalia, it looks more like the River Severn to me
thanks all. hard to believe that another offload won't move the SP at these levels. If we can understand the volume as well then it will give us clues on the production but I still contend that the 29/1 RNS was quite clear - 20k bopd (or thereabouts) from end Jan unless they tell us otherwise.
Densh,
Think we might need two tankers - average offload has been around 400,000, x 2 - that's a tanker and a half. Rough approximation but two tankers would certainly be a welcome sight!
HUR have said that the 20k bopd is subject to facilities availability which is over 90%. I would imagine that is some where between 90% and 95% so if you take the mean, 92.5% you get average bopd of 18.5k. AM probably has about 450k onboard now.
Information suggests that Petroatlantic will do the next offload but she is currently carrying a load from Kraken. The fact that she is still at Scapa and has not offloaded at Ftotta suggests she may be waiting arrival of a tanker for a ship to ship transfer. SCF Provider has just arrived at Scapa and may be a candidate.
Albi, since when did the tankers only hold 400k. Pretty sure the ones they use WoS can hold 600k+.
If I remember correctly Dr T said that the well performance was such that they could make up for most of the loss due to downtime!? So maybe 100% then, as only limited by flare consent.
come on shes moving!!
16p+ close please. do it now!!
oil price gonna soar this evening.
Previous production targets have been massively overachieved, A case of under promise & over deliver. I wonder if the current 20k bopd target will be exceeded?
Cebo,
As I said rough calculation. Let's say tanker's capacity is 600,000.
We have produced on average around 400,000 barrels per month. We're proposing to double output? If that's the case then = 800,000 barrels. You will need 1 tanker at 600,000 + a second tanker at 200,000? I'm not sure tankers run on fully capacity so I imagine it'll be more like two tankers with around 400,000 each?
Sorry 'full' capacity - as weather conditions are a little rough at the moment I wonder if they avoid loading to full capacity for safety reasons?
FWIW I don't think they will bother over achieving on the 20kbopd with the current weather situation, no point . They certainly won't want to shutdown the process facilities on the AM because she's brimmed out, so it's a timing issue between the weather suitable for offloading and tanker availability. My bet is she's reduced production atm and probably for the last week or so until they know when the next offload will be.
oil heading higher to maybe $60 WTI. so by time tanker is off-loaded HUR gets more ££££? or is price already set?
Fandg2,
I would expect them to put safety first so that would seem reasonable to me. We'll find out soon enough.
maybe tomorrow then we get a rise. flat finish today.
oil price breakout! game on!!
some late buys there!! bodes well for tomorrow if oil price plays kindly.
Well, you didn't beat around the bush!