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jointhedots - No I wasn't trying to 'pull rank' or sound belittling towards yourself. The points I made yesterday were simply to further discussion around the lower grades and provide some context behind my own reasoning which goes against the mainstream right now.
The last RNS does not mention resource modelling that is correct. The interview with Betts did. He went on to state the variance between the model and actual production had been minimal up to Q4 but this is all changed during the last quarter. I thought you had watched it already, but if not I recommend watching it through.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBhqLjWQz7g
Hi Juxtapose!
Remember that AISC does not include exploration drilling, Kouroussa costs, Dugbe costs (if any), and most of Hummingbird's sizeable head office costs.
So, if you take seriously Dan Betts' warning that production will be higher in the second half of the year than the first, and you plug in a gold price of $1750/oz, well, then, HUM will be lucky to break even over the next six months.
And that's if they hit their production and AISC targets, which is hardly a given.
I'll get trolled for this, but the last RNS was truly terrible as it exposed the fictions that the company has been peddling. Now the market has no trust left in management, and it's high time for a change at the top.
Hope for good news? Maybe the Life of Mine update. Maybe Kouroussa (though I'm not sure how the market will take that). Maybe the Fed introducing Yield Curve Control and the gold price reversing.
Anyway, I'll sign off now. Good luck all, whether you hold or sell.
Hopefully I don't get trolled
@CHRI55 I had my buy-back-in price set at 19.5p just above Mar-20 low of 19.3p when POG was around $1,470 or $300 less than today. However we also know HUMs forecast AISC has gone from $950 to $1,250/1,350 as rise of $300/400 more than cancelling out the current positive POG differential since Mar-2020 lows. As per RNS 4-Feb-2021, " 2021 production guidance of 100,000 - 110,000oz of gold, with AISC of US$1,250 - 1,350/oz on gold sold"
We also know that the macro environment is currently rising bond yields so interest rates are currently rising & not good for POG hence current weakness. However we also know that central banks won't allow this so yields will be repressed decreasing real interest rates which is good for POG. So IMHO likely more POG weakness before it goes ballistic as higher inflation expectations take off !
Like it or not this implies that a retest of 19.3p low is a possibility unless POG firms up, HUM look to cut costs or if it wishes to continue its investment in exploration et al to increase production and/or grades. My chart shows major support at 19.3p and below that at 12.5p which seems absurd to be even mentioning given the very strong growth outlook over the next 18-24 months for HUM unless exploration investment is cut which I cannot imagine they will want to do unless their hand is forced if POG drops significantly.
ATB APR
Cheers Tiger, I have always found your posts useful and informed on a host of shares SLP,TSG,CEY,HUM of the top of my head.
Its only natural that decay fesses will attract the bugs and worms.
None of us is happy with the current situation, but to say that this is going to be loss making over the next 6 months is probably an exaggeration, unless the POG absolutely craters.
It also needs to be remembered, that even at breakeven, it is still throwing off cash as depreciation/amortisation are a book charge only.
Obviously it would not be good long term, but the sustaining capital/development capex is partly discretionary and could be reined in.
I am firmly in the camp that management has to change, both for their incompetence and concealment of the true state of affairs in 2020.
Tiger, if there is one thing these chat boards have taught me, it's that nobody likes receive advice. They do seem to like dispensing it though. Hummingbird to the moon! I've got an alert set at 12p.
Hi BushyTailed!
You flatter me - it's a long time since I've been called an "unhinged individual". Thank you for the compliment.
You don't seem very familiar with Hummingbird, though, even though you evidently consider yourself an "educated" person. (I can imagine opinions vary on this subject). You do realise that the stock market is forward-looking, don't you? And that Hummingbird is on target to make a loss over the next six months?
Darton's advice is good - better to buy a quality company for good money, than a poor one at a rock bottom price.
TR1 reporting within 2 days = FCA rulebook. All fund managers acting in UK, (inc foriegn ones) regulated by FCA are bound to their rules. Break them and fund can be fined/supervising FM sanctioned.
How do you filter people, TBTT is clearly an unhinged individual with absolutely zero clue or class?
If you really think a PE of less than x2.5 and a PB value of 0.65 is to expensive for a profitable debt free gold miner then sell it and jog on.. You're clearly wasting your time trying to convince educated people, you're unhappy and losing money. You need to sell and move on tiger, draw a line under it and go and be happy.
I sold out today. Its not a bargain, due to the incompetents running it. No real experience in operating mines, now the new guy who is head of strategy...has no real experience of operating mines. The only argument I can see for buying in now - not holding - is that you might make 10 or 15% on some bounce if gold rallies again, then get out quick before everybody else does! Me, I used the opportunity to cut my losses and buy a quality outfit elsewhere that was a little cheaper today due to the volatility, my 10% bounce is more or less guaranteed. Better to buy a good company at a fair price than a fair company at a good price. Although I would not even rank this company as fair, I would say poor at best.
Betts and the company are on borrowed time I feel. Lets see how low gold goes and how this fares with no expected news until about April. Expect some desperate RNS soon, from the company that wont tell you anything. They cant work on the new mine due to travel restrictions, so not much to look forward to here is there. Once they pay the debt off, they will probably need to borrow again? (not my problem any more).
I hope this collapses in to the mid to low teens and Dan gets booted out. I hope he also reads this, the moron has cost me money.
@shareminator Thanks for the link
APR
Not really - just saying it as I see it.
And HUM isn't a bargain even at, say, 18p as things are now. This company badly needs a change at the top.
BTW, do you seriously think a post on a bulletin board can move the share price of a $100m company?!? Because I don't.
TBTT - So you're basically trolling the BB with negative sentiment so that you can pick up a bargain, thanks for sharing your agenda, amazing no one guessed.
.
HI BushyTailed!
Thanks for your concern. As I've explained before on this board, I'm not currently a shareholder.
I keep an eye on HUM (and lots of other stocks), in the hope of finding a true bargain.
True bargains are rare things. HUM isn't one yet - but could become one with the right change in management.
FWIW, the last true bargain I found was SLP, and currently I'd suggest taking a look at fellow PGM/chrome miner Tharisa (THS).
the_shareminator - are you pulling rank? lol
I'm sure there are loads of posters with valuable experience and can work things out better than me, perhaps you should offer your services to the BoD. but irrespective, your assertion that things are being ignored is not true, the RNS's do not cite resource modelling as the cause, it is potentially part of the picture.
It's essentially down to poor management mate which ever way you cut it, I don't blame you for not wanting to waste time defending Mr Betts.
Lets just agree to disagree as I know I'm right and you are wrong, lol
Bushy, excellent - that's the spirit we need
aprogerson - yes we still have a 6% holding in Bunker Hill (page 4)
https://www.bunkerhillmining.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf?v=0.698
"TR1 report on threshold being crossed should be filed within 2 days of event."
Who says?
I noted the presentation which was useful but more importantly what will halt the plunge in the SP and what price will cheap be cheap enough to tempt buyers once more given HUM seems to be serially "unlucky" and gold has gone soft?
To be clear I exited to pickup some AAZ and have since freed up some other funds to buy back in here, but sorry reading what has gone on I'm not (yet) tempted as I'm not seeing what has been done to resolve the management failures and restore confidence.
Am I missing something?
Do HUM still hold 10% of Bunker Hill shares?
ATB APR
TR1 report on threshold being crossed should be filed within 2 days of event. Sustainable have been filing. Last time they filed = end of Jan. 1% is circa 3m shares. Ergo if they had sold down and are the main seller recently they would be filing and within 24 hours / 1 day. Personally i dont think they are selling as they would have reported already since end of Jan, the volume is big enough to have done so.
What I think is *******s is your call that Sustainable have been the sellers - the numbers simply dont support it - without a TR1 within the next 24 hrs. Your welcome.
"If they dont report in next 24 hrs, then it aint them."
Sorry but that's b*ll*cks
Sustainable have reported inline their TR1 announcements. The next one would be when it drops below 4%, and then that perhaps only one more when it falls below 3%. If they dont report in next 24 hrs, then it aint them.
TBTT - great explanation - 100% captures the situation at HUM.
Still kicking myself for not fully exiting, now were back to too cheap to sell the stub. We're back in the hope land for a white knight to make an offer at a low valuation, even for shares......get rid of DB and his crony Board, and ride valuation. But then again, it was cheap before and DB likely not been open with investors about the truth thats discovered in any propert DD. Horrible - but then again not much can change.