London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Sorry to hear about you taking a punchy hit here f15jcm... I didn't listen to AGM as I intend sticking with my plan here whatever..
I've added small again into this mornings fall and will add incrementally small into any further weakness to 1.5p.. if it goes that low, it may not of course......under 1.5 p I'd add bigger size again to get my average down under 2p.. and stop then and take deep breath / hope hard for the best..
Generally, I'd guess this company is still a long way from going under.. not to mind raise card not even played yet, it could still trade around b/e this year, hopefully .... and pick up a bit next year, hopefully... so the raise card may not even have to be played, hopefully.... - and if it were played, there'd still be the possibility of an emergency raise or two after that too, I'd guess
A more consuming thought in my mind is that there might be a decent chance of the company being sold on the very cheap in 2024..... if next year is looking like it will play out worse than this year for eg .... but that would be a few million sale value still, I'd guess .. and the Market Cap is already under 5m now and would be decently less again at 1.5 p ..etc..
Won't you miss out on the dividends? I thought the company was supposed to be 'throwing out' dividends at some point? Something I recall hearing a few years ago in an interview somewhere? Anyone remember that or am I imagining it?
Thankfully I never believed it and sold out back then (though far too early) as I never fully understood the accounts either.
Having been invested since 2017, I've regrettably made the decision to exit for a loss approaching 70%. I was surprised by how easy I found it to offload my 1.3m shares. The Brazil agricultural sector is clearly in a terrible state and the country's base rate is over 13%. The company can't sell the product and I'm not convinced most of the customers are in a position to pay for it. It was clear from Brian's attitude this morning that he's all but thrown in the towel. Him not taking salary suggests cash is becoming an issue. I'm afraid I don't think the company is going to make it. I hope those brave enough to hold on are rewarded.
I'm pretty sure you can vote for yourself. Have you never heard of a controlling stake?
No, I'm not Cayton. I'm disappointed that the reply to the question about breakeven was a complete cop out.
I think the votes for his re-election were only in the region of 5m? This would mean he didn't vote for himself.
Not sure the Gerald Ratner language will improve the share price Brian, quite the opposite. Sounds more like a resignation speech. Can't see this recovering above 3p this year.
Brian's (non) answer to this question was terrible
Investor meet will see a big rise in the share price. Always does.
Perhaps a 25% discount for bulk buying kp or
Bogof type offer would reflect the presant mood in the farming world , also this type of offer has been known to incresse sales and sales gain company recognition. If the farmers go out of bussiness and have to keep selling there land to make ends meet there wont be any food for the city folk. Also have to take in to cosideration you have to apply more kp than other products that means higher fuel and running costs .
I agree, sold remaining shares today and will wait and watch for a better entry point.
Once the truth is revealed about the true state of the company it might be worth another punt.
B McMaster holds approx 4% of the shares here, which gives me some solace.
Also the accountant in him looks for the company to live within its own means eg strives to maintain a decent cash buffer to avoid raises and have a little in reserve to get through tough times like we're experiencing now.
On the flip side, that same accountant in him is aware of accounting tricks towards working smoke and mirrors across the financials here .... but, generally, open to minorish liberty taking more than outright fraudulence, I'd guess.
AIM shares are often hard core gambling and this fits that mould well now.. A year ago I'd have guessed it would be a cut above that, but not now.
I'm a hard core gambler and so see appeal in this share.... especially in the 1's pence..
No directors buying,for several years, even when it was below 2p a couple of years back..No takeover offers either at that price.This tells you a lot that the company is basically worthless.
Formerleyeasyp.....totally agree. Uninvestable at present. Many better opportunities.I feel this is going right down,as you say....I will keep an eye on it in the future ,but,doubt this management doing much.
"Doubling down for an SP recovery is tempting but I'm starting to feel there are other companies with more convincing CEOs and management teams that stand a better chance of growing capital."
Well said malcylon, I also fear there are some off balance sheet shenanigans waiting in the wings to deliver that final 50% drop after which someone will buy the whole thing for literally tuppence.
Re Verde I was wondering the same. However, keep in mind Verde's SP is still -61% on a 1 year trailing basis after the recent rises. What frustrates me about Harvest I think their communication of underlying factors could be better. I remain open-minded about the revision of sales forecasts in a market that is clearly under stress and suffering from significant short-term movements.
Verde's press release this morning had this statement from their CEO:
“We are reassured by Verde’s renewed net profit despite the most challenging fertilizer market conditions in recent years. Brazilian farmers have grappled with the convergence of the highest interest rates since 2006 and their dependence on credit. This peaked in Q2 2023, period when farmers must acquire inputs for the upcoming planting season, a challenge compounded by the dip in agricultural commodity prices exactly when their crops should be marketed. In this extraordinary context, foreign fertilizer companies with lower capital cost can offer better terms to Brazilian farmers, who have a difficult choice between the products they want to buy and the ones they can afford to finance,” commented Cristiano Veloso, Founder, President & CEO of Verde.
This aligns with Harvest's statement but provides a bit more critical colour in terms of interest rates in Brazil and joining-the-dots on crop prices falling at exactly the point they market their product.
The gap between foreign markets interest rates and interest rates in Brazil should continue to converge from here. I'm just generally concerned about how long it will take to recover the SP from here and continue to doubt BM as CEO, particularly as his mining company SP has also fallen so much, he's split between two major projects. Doubling down for an SP recovery is tempting but I'm starting to feel there are other companies with more convincing CEOs and management teams that stand a better chance of growing capital. I might go down the ETF route actually. Diversification plus potential to broaden out the scope beyond fertiliser.
Mr Burton is paid by the company to publicise the company... asking him to comment on latest RNS or generally made me laugh whl2 .. why bother asking ... (he's 50% marketing spin.. 25% clueless.. the other 25% I'll leave to yourself to decide on ) imho..
In a sector I like. I have thought about purchasing several times.I am so glad I did not.I have to say,I expected much better from the company.I am going to see if this drops below 1p ,and then take another look.
Burton should have over cash mcfarter paid him to broke shareholders on here but if course he ll carry on with the trash talking whilst owning zero shares probably
If farmers are holding back, why is Verde Agritech's share price up 50% in the last month ? This company is underperforming and clearly has no credibility in the Brazilian agricultural community. Keep spending all the money on trees, schools and solar panels Brian - there will soon be nothing yet. Care to comment Mr Burton ?
No surprise in this mornings update for me.. and I think there's a semi decent towards decent chance that the latest revised sales targets for 23 will to be achieved .....and if they are the company definitely won't be loss making this year, I'd expect.. and will have respectable cash flow/ bank balance too .. And I think that there's a decent chance that next year will see some sort of semi meaningful progress from the 23 sales base too..
Off the back of this view.. anything sub 3p might well be perceived to be a buying opportunity for some here, including me too, kinda .. so I've thrown another 1k in the pot here this morning and have another 1k set aside to buy more if this goes under 2p ... granted part of that buying decision is also towards needing to bring my average down here now, to stay even even semi touch of the latest s/p
(with the benefit of hindsight I should have kept a 1k placeholder here instead of 2k .. as I'll now have top up back to 5k gbp ish overall bet size here to get an average under 3p .. and 5k gbp is the very most I'd want in this doggy for the rest of this year.. as this has a touch of the very high risk about it now imho... that said, I still have semi decent 2024/25 hope here.. and I include not really trusting or believing in the CEO in that view.. But I don't trust or believe in many AIM CEO's yet still take trading views on sundry of their companies as I go.. and I did sell a decent chuck of my then decent size holding here at decent profit in fall back from 17 ish p to - my old average of - 7 ish p too .. so I'm betting with the houses money here now, which helps a lot too granted)
No but there is something about this company which does not smell right. Are the locals quarrying and selling the product on the side? We have a good product but given the culture in Brazil are the locals just stealing it?
Cripes, -35% down, who'd have thunked it..how much is kp fertil selling for currently anyone any ideas?
No surprises there but fair play for the update.
Good Look
Will Bryan's pay be cut by 50%?