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I actually had a buy order for 1.5p but the rate it's going, I've cancelled it.
JFH - Thank you for that. Who would of thought the SP would be sub 1.7p post clinical hold being lifted? But, here the SP is and that is doing all the talking, sadly for LTH's. I think he's going to bumble along for a bit, because organising the alternative option as you point out, is going to take time, a lot of time, and there could be more SP pain to come - this is why I think it's further to fall.
And no, that is not for me to get a cheaper entry, as right now, there are too many unknowns, as attractive the potential looks, even at 1.5 or 1.2!
Let's see how Vlad plays it out. No doubt if a JV is announced, this rockets.
Oh, he still has yet to update the number of SII, it currently sits at the number pre-raise - why hasn't he updated this yet?
Sadly in the last 3 years he has increased shares in issue by circa 400m (50%) without adding himself or his wifeexcept for 50m+ options which strangely negates that albeit sat at 2.5/2.87p
I think JHFH is right Vlad has now exhausted the placement route so lets hope if he has been approached by big pharma he wasn't too arrogant in rebuking them and that the door is is still open because as JHFH rightly points out we still need.
Vlad if you're reading these boards 10% of £500m is £50m, 10% of f--k all is f--k all.
Roach was funding a lifestyle with a company that has hard assets, Vlad is... Whats the word? Ideologic? His goal is success and saving lives whilst maintaining as much control as possible over the company between himself and his wife. Everything is indeed possible, and yes if the mCap was 100m and he could raise 10m with % dilution allowing him to retain full ownership of everything then he of course would. Further more I am certain that was the plan post CH lift, the SP was supposed to re-rate significantly allowing Vlad to raise enough to fund everything and accelerate CBR and CDX as he stated prior.
Its not that I am saying your wrong, this is and was probably Vlads preference, its less paperwork, less headache, less oversight to raise a large amount at a much higher premium. But that opportunity did not happen, as much as that may have been Vlads intention it failed and at 1.7p it is now impossible, even if shareholders authorised him to raise more he would still require a prospectus and from the brokers I spoke to, right now no small pharma is raising anything near what would be required via a placing.
As much as people may portray this as a bad situation I am glad, I am sick to death of Vlad slipping in one more peterhouse special, handing the traders and shorters a gift on a silver platter when time and again its the LTHers who pay the price. If the door is firmly shut on vlad doing a placing to fund CBR? GOOD! He has balked at certain grants in the past because of the effort or restrictions imposed because he knew he could do a placing. He has kept 100% ownership of everything in lieu of partnerships, JV, Licencing because he knew he could get better down the line and could keep going with a placing. At this point NONE of us care. Raise money via JV, PIPE, Licencing, JV, BARDA, Grant, whatever and STOP going back for peterhouse specials.
The ONE good thing about all this shorting and low SP? Vlad has no other choice, placing here to fund CBR is just not possible. But he DOES have many many other options, it has been his choice to ignore them, and YES he does have other options, I was passed details of potential buyers for HEMO-CAR-T willing to discuss licencing it and when I forwarded to Hemo the response was its not for sale at this point. God knows how many other advances they have had and Vlad has said no time and time again. Of course he could licence or partner for something, and now he has no choice.
I'm referring to post general meeting JFH. With shareholders vote, he can arrange things in such a way a much larger placing takes place. Anything is possible, depending on how he sees best value for him. Diluting may be more attractive than selling part. Look at how Roach has continually done it over the years.........
Guinness, the limit didn't need to be raised, he raised as much as was available last time and infact less than was first arranged as we know people pulled out. Basically 2 camps:
You believe he will limp along funding piecemeal via placing
Or you believe that at this price, with this market funding for CBR via placing is not available and Vlad will have to be willing to give away part of it to continue.
If the market significantly improves and sp is back 4,5,6p+ etc then maybe the situation will change. But we all know vlad needs SIGNIFICANT funds, 10m+ and that is not available via placing as we stand.
Annual Shareholders Meeting soon - nothing to stop Vlad wanting to adjust things according to fund he may want to raise. Ceiling can be lifted on current limitations, everyone can be (will be I think) diluted further.
I think your views last night JFH cement Vlad is in a bit of trouble for the foreseeable. Share price goes down, just went I think it would reverse.
Morning all
The recent placing & subsequent market shenanigans & trading pattern - almost orchestrated if your sceptical , as I am .
Have left the stock sails & many investors deflated & fuelled by negativity on these forums.👎
To note -
1.7 million short was opened during last week & still active - connected to the negativity? Maybe & will want the price lower to close .
Ortex - source 👎
Also to note
RSI index hit a two yr low last week at 5.7
However in last 2 sessions has jumped to 28 - perhaps on the turn .👍
Certainly some large delayed trades , all roughly the same price 1.75 ish
I thought we had hit bottom last week @ 1.72 however still loitering here & below 👎
However perhaps with the recent large kipper trades show some buyers bagging cheap stock as sat below placement price & all recent RNS very positive on the science achievements.👍
Anyhow all irrelevant if a positive update on CAR T , or CBR lands
Hemo are clinical & cash in the bank with other superb science prongs on CDX , CBR , imo one step back to go 3 steps forward .👍
Let’s see what next month brings, & my grandkids have been giving me a emoji lesson 👍
"where is the value to an investor tomorrow 8am" I guess for me its the point that we know that Vlad wants to progress CBR and CDX and he cannot do it on 3mil, we can all agree that. I think at this point most of us also appreciate that a placing, even if he did a prospectus to lift the 20% limit, would not give him enough to fund CBR or CDX.
So Vlad has a few choices, he either knuckles down and pushes CAR-T ASAP, get it into trials, get a few patients treated and sells it to fund the company.
OR he looks at alternatives to pursue CBR on its own legs, which means a JV, partnership, PIPE investments, grants etc.
The first would be the best profit wise for shareholders obviously in the longer run, few months waiting, delay CBR and raise enough in one licencing deal to fund the company for years.
HOWEVER
I dont believe he will wait. WHY? Not because he is not willing to wait, I am sure he would, but because everything I have seen from Vlad is that he is risk adverse, he would be gambling that HEMO-CAR-T works, that there is no subsequent hold and there is no delay in licencing. Its higher risk, delays CBR even further and if there are problems he would have to place just to keep the lights on.
The current mCap is pathetic, might aswell be free, it would be a rounding error on the balance sheets of any of the big pharma. Yet CAR-T is close to having clinical proof making it extremely valuable with a CEO who has stated he is willing to sell as soon as he has early clinical proof.
Honestly there are people out there that know this is massively undervalued and people are buying, but there was a huge placing, and sentiment is at all time lows and LTHers have sold. But the "compelling" argument to buy Hemo right now is huge, like literally I have been adding every opportunity and will continue to do so.
Sentiment can change in a heartbeat, a seller can turn to a buyer with the click of a mouse. We have seen selling on an epic scale and its pretty much ground to a halt and now the big buys are turning up. Hemo needs NOTHING to take off other than buys to outweigh sells. If there is any sort of update that includes grants, JV, PIPE, Licencing, BARDA etc it takes off without risk of the usual attack on placing. When trials start they will draw more visibility and hopefully new investments holding for results, again giving strength to the SP.
Will the SP Slide further? Maybe, I doubt it can go much further because we are seeing larger and larger buys, the SP tanked because of a glut of discount shares, not because CAR-T failed, not because CBR failed. The science here is good, the damage is done and when the storm is gone there will be plenty of traders and investors willing to pile in to take advantage of the fire sale prices.
I'll have to watch the interv
I appreciate your reply.
Question is, where is the value to an investor tomorrow 8am? What is currently compelling to buy HEMO.
Logic says one would struggle to understand a good reason other than trials, but the market knows part of phase 1 is funded, the balance isn't. I thought the sp was turning but given what we have discussed it's hardly surprising some think the so will slide further.
I know day to day sp isn't important to you, but it is to others.
Hemo is a challenging investment right now.
Pwil, yes interviews before CH was lifted Vlad says how he was planning to ramp up CBR and CDX, clearly had big plans. The recent interview he is crystal clear, this did not go to plan, he is not able to progress CBR and CDX as planned and he is now actively pursuing alternative arrangements. Also yes I have spoken to investors and brokers etc since the placing and its clear that Vlad needs or atleast wants a level of funding that is not available via a placing. And I agree with you Guiness25 and have relayed as much to Hemogenyx, there is ZERO support for the level of placing that would be required to progress CBR at this SP. The company can issue another 5% to 2025 and at this price it means shelving CBR which is not an option.
I honestly dont know if he will go after grants, loan (see: https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/bluebird-bio-secures-175m-lifeline-hercules-capital-support-its-three-pricey-gene-therapies ), Licencing, partnership/JV however I have zero doubt he will want to ramp up CBR and that takes cash, raising another 1m in 3 months does NOTHING for the company, nada.
CBR/CDX/CAR-T are all quite huge, none of them have any encumberments which prevents Vlad from using them to raise cash. Vlad might want to keep 100% ownership? Well good luck to him, he is running out of alternatives, he blew it with the placings and he knows it.
Who said vlad saw this as a huge eye opening? Did vlad say this Jhfh?
I bet your boss isn't happy you talked him into buying this ??
Sscc I will wait while the science and logic tells me that is the right decision. If Hemo was a dog with nothing to show after these years? I would be long gone already. I would STILL be here today even if we had already had a re-rate, the only difference is I have not had an opportunity to top slice. Find the argument to be rather irrelevant to be fair, its like people who feel obliged to average down in a share that they dont believe in just because they are in so deep.
Been here what? 5-6 years? Irrelevant. Question is:
Today, Hemogenyx is CLINICAL, they have CAR-T lined up with Penn to go into clinical trials imminently, the next we hear will probably be a listing on the clinical trials website. They have cash in the bank, no debt and multiple candidates worth billions if they work. With a valuation of < 20m would I buy today?? Answer YES. But you make your own decisions, I am happy with mine.
Consdoms,
You misunderstand me. I sincerely hope there is significant value here as I have many many shares and am 30% down. I just think that it is understandable for LTHs (who have been the roller coaster) to hope that today they will see some light at the end of the tunnel. My belief is that most people here are PIs investing their own money and being as dispassionate as to not look, query etc would be unnatural for those investing their own money.
Crunch, not really, no.
JFJH, how long are you prepared to wait for this re-rate? I've been here 6 years and it hasn't happened. Shall I give it another 4? Or 14?
Those who say they don't care about the sp day to day certainly don't bother reading this board day to day. Let alone writing an essay every time. So disingenuous.
Jonny, It SHOULD have already re-rated, going clinical bring Hemogenyx into the clinical sphere where it is without exception the most undervalued amongst its peers and that if you ONLY consider HEMO-CAR-T.
Dont misunderstand me, the focus IS on SP but its not on 5 or 10%, this daily obsession with what the SP has done in the past few hours is it up or down a few %? Thats an obsession on irrelevant intra day movements and does not interest me.
What I care about is what Hemogenyx is worth, and what it WILL be worth in the very near future. The sheer level of manipulation and shorting was shocking to myself and a huge eye opener to Vlad, its taken any sort of belief that he can just release a good RNS, raise the SP and fund via placing off the table. Going clinical was the biggest news the company has had in years and he ended up raising lower and using up his headroom, so for Vlad its time to do something different.
The number one preference for Vlad was minimal dilution large placing from a much higher SP, allowed him to retain 100% ownership of candidates inside Hemo vs licencing at a discount, less paper work and oversight which comes with grants.
But placing now for future work is off the table, Vlad had a kick in the balls and knows its not possible to raise what he wants via placing. I regret this was not already obvious to him and wish he had learned this lesson before doing a placing, but thats life
This company is currently valued at LESS than 20m? That is a farce, its a joke, it is wrong and most of us know that and thats why I am here. I care about the share price but I dont care about 1.7p or 2p or 3p or even 4p.
My mantra was this is undervalued when this was PRE-Clinical, we are now clinical, 3m in the bank and EVEN CHEAPER, so excuse me but undervalued does not even begin to do it justice.
Ofcourse this will re-rate, it has no choice, HEMO-CAR-T either works or it does not, either billions or nothing. CBR? Cannot progress without a huge cash injection, 3m was nothing, so he either licences/partners/goes after grants, any of which will cause a significant re-rate. Until that happens? spending hours posting about 2-3% up or down is an utter waste of time
I always thought JHFH was referring to potential value Jonn. Do you not seen future significant value here then (perhaps after the first few CAR T results come back?)
JHFH, it's really not your job to police everyone's posts.
I’m sorry Jonny, was that a question?
He's born and raised in Cheshire, so I'd be surprised if English is his 3rd language. Are you just guessing this?!
Crunch,
If MrIndia is from India and English is his second or third language I take my hat off to his mastery of the language. There are native English speakers on here who don't know the difference between 'your' and 'you're' and 'there' and 'their", why don't you have a go at them.
JHFH,
isn't that a bit rich coming from you? For years your regular mantra was 'this will re-rate on news', 'this is massively undervalued', 'this cannot continue'. If that isn't a focus on SP I don't know what is.