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Too much information is sometimes a bad thing. JW should have just stated they intend to refinance the Riverstone debt without giving any timescales. Things always take longthan expected.
People with a negative outlook will always find something to moan about though.
I can buy into that theory, although there would always have been speculation about cashflow. Some not well considered timelines perhaps initially , then a six month audit followed by the possibility of 100 % guarentee, perhaps became the new deal to chase after Searose was confirmed, who knows 🤷♂️
One thing Id certain, I'm sure they want it over the line just as much as we do.
#Wellmostofusdo
It's all in the past now but we only have their word for there actually being another deal and so the terms and any benefits can only be guessed at. It was announced only a week after they drew down $15 million from the accordian facility from Riverstone that paid off Appledore. So not sure about the market crying out for it. Less than a week later we got the FSS Preferred Bidder RNS and we were off to land of "50p by Friday".
I wondered earlier what would have happened if they had never announced the "proposed" finance deal and just relied on news as and when it came in. Confirmation of the the FSS contract, got JR (round one) out of the way, more Cory barges and other contracts. Kept a steady flow of vessels coming into the yard whilst getting on with the yard expansions and upgrades from that never ending or decreasing £77m, kept up with staff increases to meet contract demand and in good time to get them up to speed for when the FSS kicks in. I wonder if constant can kicking and percieved failure to get it over the line has had a more detrimental affect than if they had kept schtum and only announced it when it was done and dusted. Same goes for unrealistic revenue targets. If it ain't 100% in the bag or you don't know for sure, don't put it out there.
Isn't the proof is in the eating. :)
Revenue targets certainly need work. When they can't accurately predict due to not knowing the outcome of tenders then they should give a range. 150-200m should have been given for 2024 for example then no one complains if we hit 180m. Now that's we're expecting 200m people will complain if we fall short again and ignore the growth on previous year. Just as people will complain if 80m is posted for 2023 despite it being treble 2022's revenue.
In 21' all companies got an extension in UK and I am sure there were many that used it too.
There is so much currently going on with the company a.t.m. that I imagine that the c.f.o. is working v hard.
I currently see very little the bod doing wrong i.m.o. so will agree to disagree and leave it there..
It’s the individuals call at the end of the day…. But I did the benefit of the doubt bit but on seeing no change I adapted my approach and at some cost
The red flag for me was deferred revenue becoming a fixture rather than an exception. Last year we expected to see the deferred income in H1 when that didn’t happen we expected it in H2 but as we await those results we’ve been warned to expect a possible revenue cut of up to £20 million?
With the emphasis on growth there’s a clear tendency to over promise and under deliver, I think if the reverse was true we would have a much more stable share price with much better (and more realistic) visibility going forward
Think what you like Findingtheta, but I have a lot of respect for JW and Arun if they have turned down a finance deal already despite the market crying out for it, in favour of pursuing a much better deal that will save the company many millions over the years.
Of course the proof will be in the pudding when the deal arrives, and whether the delays were worth it. I think it will be.
Scaffman 2:21. I don’t think it’s UKEF who put the finance deal back from q4 22 to q1 23 to q2 23 to q4 23 to q1 24 to q2 24. I don’t think either that it was them who takes six months to publish results and still needed a three month extension to publish the 2021 year end. H&W seriously need to sharpen their act up imo.
I'm not pointing the finger at Arun either now or after news re Finance breaks. I press the button to execute trades of my own free will. Nothing anyone posts influences me to do so.
Although some have done what I hope works out to my benefit and worked tirelessly to instil fear, which has enabled me to load up at what I consider bargain bucket basement prices.
W agree with your 12.56 post.
All I'm interested in right now is a financial package , everything else irrelevant until that is achieved.
Findingtheta 12:17 If Ukef doesn't come through,I think we will all be looking for someone to take the fall and Arun i'm sure will fit the bill then.But when he's not in control of UKEF timeframe, and also dealing with rapid company growth and perhaps waiting for the Falklands job to become a contract proper ,should we not give him the benefit of the doubt until then.
Xenor, 12:28.my belief is end of June. That gives lots of time to understand H1 and shuffle things from year end to H1 and versa but really, not good enough.
Si Derman 12:29. I think ‘ news drought’ might be more appropriate ))
Am expecting three bits of news to arrive very soon imho Finance-IM appeal result -and another possibility results let’s see
There should really be quarterly updates, even if they don't include the financials. As we didn't get one end of Q4 or beginning of March I don't see one until the audited 2023 results are out now.
Market has already reacted to the November revenue downgrade and is expecting 80m rather than 100m. Anything more than 80m is a nicety at this point. But no doubt some will act surprised if it helps their trading ideas. Expecting any shortfall to make up the 200m 2024 revenue as happened last year. It's not great but I'm being realistic.
Best case is we get a revenue upgrade for this year but even with the Falklands contract starting in H2 and the cruise ship work I don't think we're at 200m yet. I think Scilly ferry was perhaps priced in when the original 200m was stated. That's the problem with giving estimates a year ahead and probably why we don't have guidance for 2025 yet. It's a hard business to give guidance for when you don't know if you're winning X or Y tender.
Xenor, I am sure you are right.
A TU or any sort of results announcement will be useless and pointless without news on the finance deal.
That will be the trigger for everything else. (imo)
When the question of quarterly updates was firmly kicked into touch I was expecting Jun and Dec updates. When Dec didn’t happen people said early Mar but that has now passed.
What do we actually know? To date we only have a potential reduction in revenue of £20million (due to accounting differences). Personally I fear it will be like last year in that respect
The simple truth is it just feeds fear and uncertainty and the delay is hoping the finance news will come in to save the day!
A lot of eggs in one basket and it won’t take much to tip the SP either way, clearly increased risk/reward if you can call it right
Would be nice to have a clear date and format that they could stick to that would take some of the second guessing out of the equation. Here's a list I've been keeping for ease of reference.
RNS Date
??? ??, 2024 ...........................................................
Nov 30, 2023 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HARL/trading-statement-omkhd4kf6i8x1ya.html
Sep 08, 2023 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HARL/half-year-report-tje90aq74oczdoo.html
Jun 30, 2023 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HARL/annual-financial-report-ep2zh6g5jsqqw9e.html
Dec 30, 2022 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HARL/trading-update-a1t20e7biivdmhp.html
Sep 30, 2022 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HARL/interim-results-1g5xxmwm0qkt9s0.html
May 23, 2022 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HARL/unaudited-preliminary-results-bu51cnxgad8u7yj.html
Nov 01, 2021 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HARL/interim-results-2eortdki9kkxl3o.html
Apr 19, 2021 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/INFA/half-year-report-hdvvx3v165ev37b.html
Jan 26, 2021 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/INFA/annual-report-and-notice-of-meeting-t8r47clxftw94yr.html
Apr 30, 2020 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/INFA/interim-results-boeo80hesduv6oz.html
Jan 08, 2020 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/INFA/final-results-f7udfqln7p00zis.html
Apr 17, 2019 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/INFA/half-year-report-9tdjzqzdlecwfx0.html
Jan 07, 2019 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/INFA/final-results-and-notice-of-annual-general-meeting-7w2o8rjrpxsuabp.html
Apr 30, 2018 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/INFA/half-year-report-o8q57sizrtclb18.html
I would imagine he's kept on a very short leash by JW controlling the news flow. Can't alude to things happening if people are kept up to date and in the know.
AR's current focus is the financial deal. I doubt we'll get 2023 results until late May or June.
I’m at a loss to understand why it takes Harl sooooo long to produce results for interims and finals ( or, actually, anything to do with financials). To me this yet another indicator that AR is not up to the job. I’ll be voting for him to leave at the next pertinent AGM.