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The company treats retail investors as clueless, unlike the detail fed to the likes of Blackrock. Other funds show current equity holdings even if they don't detail the valuation methodology which would be freely provided to auditors. I have a trawl through WIPO to have a better idea of who is developing and protecting their IP and also the volume of hiring, noting almost all the Molton's links fail. Sadly Graphcore is the standout IP with numerous patents filed years ago granted in the past few weeks. Also unless there is growth with limited or no hiring which I guess is slightly possible , unless you happen to be Revolut not much seems to be happening in that space either. So maybe values are still a bit over Cooke.
Go to source document, its public. Then you dont have to believe some random person who scribbles.
Investments over the last 18 months are also likely to have been done at reduced valuations so will have picked up some bargains along the way.
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reddit-ipo-key-things-know-090000743.html
Where the portfolio has frothy valuations there are others like Iceye that haven't been adjusted up as no recent funding rounds.
I read the S1; 159.2M shares outstanding after IPO with guide price $31-34 is $5.5bn
The Reddit IPO is priced at 6.5bn.
Anyway Revolut is more like Stripe and neither are in a rush to IPO at a reduced valuation.
Well graphcore was on our books for 113m year end 2022, 108m year end 2021 and 86m year end 2020.
March 2020 annual report was based on a Feb 2020 150m fund raising round valuing graphcore at usd $1.95bn . So 5%
5% ownership of 500m (rumored sale price) is 25m. Modestly above the 22m on our books for.
So in spite of troubles Graphcore should not be a drag this time round. Our current September 2023 estimated Graphcore NAV/share sufficiently discounted from last round heights. I do hope the interest of more than one buyer stretches the price a bit. No news though. Does show management has been proactive in writing down value well before a down round occurs. Good on them. I think our circa 750/nav/share solid enough and no need for2/3rds discount. Should be only 1/3rd or 5 quid sp.
Clearly market thinks I’m wrong. Good luck all.
Weak sterling, strong dollar, plus there are lots of stupid single entities out there, but the market by definition is not stupid.. Another datapoint, the Reddit IPO. Coming this week at valuation of about $5 -$5.5bn. Their last funding round in 2021 was a valuation of $10bn. The magic 50% discount AGAIN and it doesnt get more current than that. In 2021 pre Covid, the private market was valuing things at twice the level the public market wants to pay and you are seeing that play out in Molten and they typically play in cos that are much smaller than Reddit so justifying a 60% discount.
If the market is the world's best fundamental analyst why are so many UK companies getting swooped up at large premiums to their SPs?
The value they were holding Perkbox at sounded fairly accurate.
The Telegraph article about Triple Point referenced Molten's discount as 54% last year.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/08/revolut-investor-slashes-fintech-valuation-5bn/#:~:text=US%20tech%20investor%20TriplePoint%20Venture,%2433bn%20at%20its%20peak.
That is actually an error as MV cut it by 40%, not 54%. But saying that they never valued it internally at 33bn as they thought it was way too frothy.
I think when Revolut raised at 33bn MV actually realised part of their Revolut investment. I saw it on a presentation slide listing successful exits.
And they have recently bought some back as it's one of the holdings in the Seedcamp fund they recently bought.
Time and time again, market proves itself as worlds best fundamental analyst. If you take a contra view it needs to be based on hard numbers not wild speculation. Graphore is the next test of Moltens valuation policies if indeed it does find a buyer. Until then nobody has the hard data other than the accounts as at Sept last year.
You cant possibly know that Re Revolut. All we know is they have between 0.001% and 5% and its valued at £55M. You tell me their shareholding and then its easy to work out their valuation but unless you know their shareholding you are speculating. On Graphore, if Molten own the middle of the range they will have a write down of half their valuation. The fair question then is does this aggressive valuation policy apply more generally? thats what market thinks currently and so you 60% plus discount falls to 10-15%. Thats the issue Molten face, plain and simple. Market doesnt believe their current valuations and if they write off £12-13M further, market is proved right.
Revolut is held by Molten at a value based on market cap of about 16bn dollars.
The US VC Triple Point dropped it down on their books last week from 28bn to 23bn.
So MV is showing signs of prudent valuations.
Apologies Senator you are right.
I think I had in mind they had knocked it down again by about £10m
Last set of accounts available tell us their stake valued at £21.3M not £10M. That stake cost them £24M. We also know they own between 0.1-5%, dont know the precise figure. If they own 5%, the £400m is ok, if they own 2.5% they will have a £12-13M writeoff and if they own 1% they face an 80% write off. Those are the facts based on what is in the half year accounts of Molten.
Thanks for that, must have been thinking of some older accounts. So if audit require a full write down not too far to go then.
Graphcore is already written down to £10m, which is unlikely to present a problem.
Thin volume, this has been controlled by the bots for some time, so not too concerned just adding in the drops, although I expect the accounts will not look too happy with any Graphcore write down.
I suppose forward partner shareholders with first chance to cash out perhaps for a long time.
even if we have big buyers in the background they might hang back and let the do fall so they create jitters and thus a better price.
anyhow frustrating but fundamentals and time on our side. just cant say when sustainable sp lift starts