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If we hear the drill results were taken in a heist we'll have heard it all. I jest of course but I don't understand why give such a precise timeframe on 30th December 'early Q1' - which is lets face it - a maximum 6 week window - and then miss it. Frustrating. Need to be able to manage timeframes / comms better and if there is material uncertainty - don't commit - is the professional way to go about it. Say 'Q1' or 'H1' or 'as soon as they are available and we will update when we have further news'.
They’re busy working on excuses to fill the quarterly operational update we should get end of March as to why this whole operation is still a total sh*t show!
Think they need to get a shift on now.
>>I'm assuming we're still waiting for these, or did I miss something?
yep, waiting
"Further drill results from Q4 diamond drill programme at the former high grade Akrokeri Mine expected in early Q1 2023."
I'm assuming we're still waiting for these, or did I miss something?
Have to say wasarunner I agree with you and am always wary of the “I know someone and things are going well but I can’t tell you what I know or how I know types” especially if it’s not inside info so why not share? Good to challenge these people as it does stink of a trader trying to scalp a few quid here and there!
Especially after our resident jilted lover djryans antics of the past!
Sounds like a fair summary, Wasa. Need to increase profitability/productivity, and convince investors of the potential again. That’s why I feel positive about the latest news. As someone said previously, the company is currently priced as though it’s expected to fail. But I don’t believe that at all. And with £2.4m added, the money is there to improve recovery and increase resource, and thus to directly increase profitability.
When I was buying this at 9p before they even had a permit, and then higher, I remember wishing I knew about it when it was 3p. Well, here’s my chance.
Indeed - but just a note - AISC is a lot higher than 600-700 presently (for GRL). Somewhere north of $1k/oz. But this can be improved and this is where the profitability lies:
- improved recovery rate will improve AISC
- own equipment purchased with the money from the raise (rather than whatever the cost of renting equipment is) should reduce AISC
- higher grade material (for example from Akrokeri) shipped to Homase for processing could improve AISC
I think profit margin x production capacity is key. GRL need to improve both clearly to generate more profit. The debt level isn't that big - indeed even the recent CLN could be paid back with ~1.5koz of production.
I think the reason we are 3p as you say reflects current values and the reason we aren't rising from 3p is nobody is buying presently as nobody believes it will improve. When it becomes clear that it will improve people will start buying (we're cheap then) and we will have a higher SP. Find out in months ahead I guess.
Mr Wasarunner,
What I was referring to was that for the risk (amount of money invested v potential of reward) can be reduced.
Just to let you know CMCL and GRL have similarities:
Both into gold, both operate in Africa (CMCL mainly Zimbabwe) , both are operators with planned production and both have good future prospects (developing shortly additional assets they have acquired).
The issue for me - back in April 2021 - GRL planned prod 50koz, CMCL planned 60-70koz, GRL MCAP = about $50m, CMCL MCAP about $120m - so MCAP were aligned based on planned production (CMCL little higher as already history of producing).
In late 2021 SP was 14p (MCAP approx $70m) and planned production dropped to 25koz!!
Quarterly production reports from CMCL indicted planned production on schedule, from GRL they never really gave any confidence and the more reports came in the news never improved.
Reading back through RNSs , CMCL had a history of achieving the planned production - therefore the risk in this investment was less.
At 10p last year it was overpriced for the risk (in April 2022 it was 14p and even in November 2022 it was 8p). Now GRL has dropped to 3p - it now becomes very interesting.
Anyone looking at investing back then and reviewed both companies - would probably opt for the one that achieved its targets.
The main thing GRL need to do - provide production progress figures showing GRL can be self sufficient (if cannot yet - then at least give a plan to when self sufficient) - these gold loans and others are not pleasant on the eye.
One point GRL have over CMCL and others (if they finally can get their act together) is the forecast AISC is in the order of $600-700 which I would consider very pleasing on the eye.
Overall - the drop in share price from last year was not unexpected as it is written in the RNSs- and now I would consider is a good buying opportunity.
Just look at the difference between buying today and last year !!
no worries - wasn't a dig by the way people change opinion on a change of circumstance / information. I'm relatively optimistic here but it was a disappointing year last year no doubt about it and I get people's frustration. As I said on another post it's a long game, good luck to all in their investments!
On whether I would buy GRL right now - I have enough so I won't (and no funds) but if the BOD can execute, from this level, there are clear multiples upside. The keyword of course is if. Should find out in the months/year ahead. I've got a few in the 3s, few in the 4s, few in the 5s then a lot of mine were bought 9-10p. Still looking for a return on all of them, happy to wait 1-3yrs+. GLA
Hi Wasarunner
I wish I could tell you but not on this board
I've got a sub 10p average :)
For those with sub 2p averages, this is possibly a good moment to buy into the fear if you can accept more risk. Successful deployment of the new funds will accelerate production.
edzi - mid last summer you were downbeat about the management - see below. Interested in what changed for you as you seem more upbeat (despite the management team not really delivering, so far - by all accounts H2 last year was poor). Investors tend to be more downbeat when the company doesn't deliver and the shareprice halves - I'm not saying you're a trader because I don't know, and there might be genuine reasons why you are more upbeat now - which is absolutely fine and I'd love to know what they are - do you know how they plan to use the new money (apart from what's in the in the RNS I don't know any more detail?)
It can come across when someone is downbeat then upbeat that they are selling / buying the share - not saying that's you but it can happen. FWIW apart from a bit of buying and selling at the edges (normally when new money lands or I need some for something else) I hold this stock and have had a consistent holding over 5m shares for well over a year now.
---------------------------------
Waimea
I do fundamentally agree with everything you say, I am an investor here and still in profit but the management has been poor and they have had unlucky breaks. When I first invested I always asked myself why they stopped mining in the early 20th Century at Akroteri if they were finding 24gms a ton. The soil and rock is a problem but they should of researched into Ashantit find out if they were having the same problems as this would be to me the first area to look at. It seems amatuerish
Excuse typos I can't type on my phone.
Jack Hackett - a fair post. But as an engineer myself (IT but nevertheless the principle is similar) and I don't know the history of thr other company you speak of - steady state operation is much easier than going from explorer to producer. In softeare maintaining an operational piece of softeare can be hard, but writing it from scratch line 1 of code (which is what I am doing at the moment) is an order of magnitude harder. Goldstone have done this in a country which afaik doesn't have 'junior' gild miners to production - all the gold mining is done by bigger players (or artisanal probably) - but happy to be corrected.
As you rightly point out also, particularly i gold miners, the market prices for what if. The excitement of the high grade drills, what if at Akrokeri, ehat if at Homase pits 3 and 4. There is obviously an element of chance it is the nature of gold mining it was the same 100 years ago. I guess the point is when it works out you win big.
Could the mgt team have been more transparent/forthcoming with the oprational issues thet experienced earlier than they did? Probably, but as another postef pointed out they are working for the three or 4 institutions invested, us PI's are an afterthought. Probably the former are kept in the loop. It is the chance we take investing in these companies.
If the other company you speak of is transparent, has good metrics and steady stste production with further upsidd then it may well be the better investment. I saw a lot of potential with Goldstone and still do. Unlike others (wss it Buffet eho said this I am not sure) I do see low price as opportunity not always a problem. Two of my big investments are cheap at the moment and I added heavily one of them last week (not goldstone). Time will tell if I'm right.
Hi All
Contrary to most peoples thought I would like to state the following.
I am a shareholder
I have quite a few million shares
I have done research and am lucky enough to know someone , however I have not got inside information just to be clear
Emma, is doing a fantastic job contrary to what people might say.
Once the new machinery is in place things will improve very quickly .
Exciting times ahead and please be patient
Mr wasarunner,
I start to lose confidence with GRL when short term planned production reduce so significantly so quickly - it clearly showed the confidence of the people running the company was worrying higher than what can be achieved practically.
I base this on :
RNS dated 13-May-2021 : CEO stating planned production 50koz, this dropped to 25koz on the 12 july (1 month later), and now - latest from GRL on 30th December 2022 . . .'2022 production target of 7,000 ounces of gold not yet achieved'.
I think the COMPANY requires help - either at operations to achieve the planned production or at management to ensure the RNSs are correct in what can be achieved.
Compare this to Caledonia (CMCL) and the MCAP for both companies back in April 2022:
CMCL = 12m shares x £10 = £120m (producing 70 - 80koz) - paying 5% divs
GRL = 500m shares x 10p = £50m (planned prod from 50k to 25k to now less than 7k)
at the time, GRL (with no history of production) worth nearly 1/2 the MCAP of CMCL .
Both companies have huge upturn potential - but if you read the RNSs from both - there would probably only be one which is considered investable.
Mr wasarunner, my point to you is - you probably don't need to take that level of risk (with increased risk of losing most/all) check where the evidence does not align with the fantasy. Emma (the CEO) can now say whatever concerning planned production in a future RNS, I have little confidence much of it will fall on listening ears .
With this kind of investment, if you are an investor (trader is different) long game is the only way to play it. Have 3 or 4 of these, each one that makes it will return a multiple, the ones that fail will return most likely 0 if you are lucky you get some money back. Picking all winners is hard of course. Lots of things appealed to me about Goldstone when I first invested and many/most are still valid so for me it remains a sound investment. Unfortunate we missed the targets in 2022 which ultimately resulted in the raise, but an opportunity in 2023 to fix that. Gold price is reasonable presently and hopefully also pushes north. We are highly geared to the gold price - any big jump in gold price will affect both top and bottom line here massively. You need to be bullish on gold to invest, obviously (I am). GLA
...many thanks for your reply wasarunner, I appreciate your taking the time to explain it to me. As an aside, I am only a small holder but am not even considering selling up. These will either come good (preferable)... or not, and I'll live with the consequences of my descision.
edzi - I'm in the long game (with all my investments). Year 1 and 2 of this investment haven't gone quite to plan but I like the fact we're producing, we've taken a bit more debt on but I fully expect it to convert (so I count it as dilution rather than a debt overhang - bit like the other debts which have already converted into equity here). But make no mistake this is a critical year for Goldstone. I'm less worried about total production numbers and much more important is the profitability/recovery rate. But the investment is designed to boost their capability of recovering while reducing the cost of recovering so in theory at least we should see improvement in profitability. If you can't get on a self sustaining cashflow basis there will always be dilution - the principals here know this which is why they want to make it profitable. Alongside that we want commercial quantities (not 5koz but 20koz+) so if they can hit both goals then great.
As I said long term investor and I couldn't sell my stake if I tried, I have 6m shares+. So my fortunes are tied up with the fortunes of Bill T et al. GLA
The entity provided a (convertable) loan so didn't buy shares per se. However, they risked £2.4m (which is fundamentally all risked investment) which is convertable at a shareprice which I fully expect them to convert. I am by no means a stock market guru but others tell me that when this kind of event happens, the stock gets marooned at the option price for a while while investors figure out what the value of the company is. It is kind of like a placing. That's normal - so I expect perhaps no progress from the current level until we have news that tell us that diluted mcap is worth rerating from the current level because the gold production figures warrant that.
So some PIs, realising the jam isn't today or in the next 2months or 6 months or whatever their time horizon for investing is, sell, because company X over on the other side of AIM has just announced fab news and is rocketing and they want to buy in high in the hope of seeing it go higher. That's been my experience of AIM in any case.
The example I highlighted in my post earlier is a case where the placing was subsequently proved to be valuable for (eventually) rerating the share as it provided the finance to unlock 'the goods'. At least what the chairman/CEO are telling us here through the RNS is that the purpose of the finance is to expand production and unlock the goods. Assuming they can deliver the goods, therefore the placing is a good thing and the price should rise. Because nobody (currently) believes them - at least not the entities (PIs) who would buy open market, the shareprice stagnates.
Is it a good investment at the current price? Yes, if they deliver anything like 14koz or 20koz profitably. I would say even with the extra dilution 20koz is worth north of 10p if it can be done sustainbale. So that's 2bags from current price if they deliver on plan. Will they do it? Well that's the question and that's the risk you take with your investment. I hold, but not adding for now (that's not a negative I just don't have free funds. If I had, I would consider it). GLA
TOTDY and Wasaruner
I am very disappointed with the SP like everyone else but I can assure you that there are exciting times ahead.
Wasarunner, I think your thought process is spot on
sorry wasarunner, but I don't follow your logic. If a few panicked PI's sell just 100k, which is basically peanuts, but an entity buys 70M+ shares at 3.25p (£2.4m), why is the share price falling through the floor? I'd be expecting it to skyrocket. What am I missing or seeing wrongly?
Why do you say that? Because of a few 100k sells yesterday? It is an illiquid share, always was, so if a PI or two throw in the towel the share price goes down. I prefer the view of the entity who just invested £2.4m at 3.25p, which is also a miner in Ghana. They've just bought, in effect, 70m+ shares worth so for me that carries greater weight than a few PI sells. PIs sell when bored or frustrated. Only worry when we have TR1s from any of the principals invested here showing they are selling....though it is very unlikely they would be able to shift their positions on open market anyway, not till the fortunes of the company have been revived.
I'm eyeing it as an opportunity but prefer to wait at present till we get an update on progress. GLA