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I think Kasamar specifically noted a 20p or above pricing point that they would sell at in their letter of support and they held 9%
It would certainly be good to find out who the sellers were, and if they had previously written letters in support of the Board.
Seafox’s % is going up (latest notification 29.14%) while the % in support of the Board may now well be dropping again.
Its a bit odd that we don't know who the seller is....9% bought at 22p. They can make a bid within 6 months only with the approval of the board, or if someone else makes a bid.
It looked like the trade was cancelled, but as it was off book it was reported to the exchange twice by both the buyer and seller, so it looked like a cancelling trade but wasn’t.
Someone mentioned in the forum that the trades from Tuesday at 22p were reversed. Couldn't find this data though......also doesnt make sense in light of the disclosure today
Seafox made the "no intention to bid" announcement last week, which means they can not make a bid for 6months (except in certain circumstances, which I am not aware of what they are). But these are large blocks - so who is the seller?
that purchase takes them to 29.1%. 1% more and its a mandatory bid. Seafox still haven't made a formal bid so there are no waiting times for a Formal Offer as far as im aware.
"Accordingly, if Seafox were to make an offer, it would not able to make any offer above this price"
"IF"
Can somebody explain to me why when you have this activity going through at 22p with Seafox rapidly approaching the 30% mandatory threshold people are selling with a 14p handle ? I must be missing something......
Indeed - at 12:07 today.
Getting interesting !
9.6 million share purchase at 22p.
The "material change in circumstances" clause is a key one I think. If GMS sign the debt restructure deal this month this would be a material change in circumstances in my opinion. Hence, open the door back up for Seafox. So I expect them to increase their position up to the 30% threshold by then.......
So SeaFox did buy another 6% on Tuesday - that’s the 22 million shares.
(Source - TR-1 issued this morning).
My opinion - “No intention to bid” formally killed off the offer period during which they had said no increase above 10p.
Buying now is outside the offer period.
If they go above 30% holding they HAVE to make a mandatory offer to buy the remaining shares (mandatory on them to make the offer, not mandatory on shareholders to accept the offer).
A mandatory offer has to be at or above the highest price they paid for shares in recent months (can’t remember if it’s 6 or 12 months).
So my opinion is there will be further small buys from SeaFox followed by a mandatory offer at 22p.
Watching with interest!
Hi Folks, looks like we now know who purchased the 22m shares in the off book deal on Tuesday.
The TR-1 notice this morning states that Sea Fox has increased its percentage holding to 26.41 from 20.37 with 350 million shares in issue, 22 million shares is just over 6% - roughly the increase in Sea Fox's holding.
Assuming the 22p per share was correct, then how does that square with their 10p no increase previous offer which has some 2 months left to run??
Nemo
Agree with Amtech. Reasonable price would be 20p with the current EBITDA levels. But given the highly levered nature of the company, any improvement in EBITDA will be extremely positive for equity.
You’ll find out before the month end what the restructuring will look like, and whether 30p will be achievable. I can’t see it myself though when revenue is a quarter of the debt pile, the syndicate hold all the cards. Especially as all debt covenants where breached hence the roll over of those covenants until the end of the month.
Frankly, if agreement is reached regarding this company's debt restructuring. This share has 30p written all over it!
Again, great advice. Im generally not a greedy person so will more than likely take back my initial investment from a couple of my options. A life changer would indeed be very nice however, I am not expecting to make millions (not yet ).
I have bought 10 different options, 5 main which are all doing very well at the moment although, I know that is mainly down to the fact that they all dropped significantly due to the pandemic and realistically, should go back up in value. I also have 5 smaller interests which are collectively, running at level £ for now. It wouldn't be a major issue if the smaaler ones drop in value as I view them as an ''interest'' punt that have an outside chance of a small profit.
Where do you see the trade reversed?
I’ve found that the trick in this game is not to be greedy and be happy with a profit. The life changers are few and far between but the slap in the face is hard and often. Just my take on things, good luck with your investing.
Amtech, that makes perfect sense to me after all, who doesn't like a no risk, free ride!! I will give your advice serious consideration once/if the price gets to 16p but, the gambler in me may just win the fight !!
Thank you for the detailed reply, it is all very helpful (noted) advice.
Once the shares are bought, I suppose it's knowing when to cut and run that is the key to this whole process?? Im sure I will win some and lose some along the way however, thats what makes it exciting!!!
Whatever profit you are happy with would be my answer. Id of also sold the 7.67p shares by now to get my initial funds back and left the rest to ride it out for free. Everyone carry’s a different bag though so only you can decide.
Morning Ron,
I've been in this one for a long time as a turnaround / buyout story, having been buying all the way down from 14p (I now hold a lot more than initially planned!). There's a lot of moving parts to this one, with a potential bid from Seafox who now look to be restricted from increasing their 10p offer for a couple more months. Anyway, the BOD and management team have had an overhaul over the the last 12 months and now look to have a grip on where the company is heading. Order book and utilisation rates are strong. However, the major issue is the company's debt structure. They have agreed in principle with a syndicate of banks, but this isn't signed and we also don't have any clarity on the structure of the capital raise that was announced a couple of months back. With this hanging over the stock the recent price moves have been bid led and todays move anticipating something off the back for a trade at 22p (that now looks to have been cancelled, but is was off book).
As for your actual question, on price target. For me I would cut my position in 1/2 at 20p to bank some profits and let the rest ride a bit longer, either as a bid or longer term turnaround play. I do feel the current management team have a much better hold on the company and controlling costs etc.
Hope that helps a bit. (I'm obviously a stock holder though and the share price has been driven down significantly, so I may be looking through tinted glasses!)
Good morning to all.
I am a newbie to this madness and am looking for a general pointer from the more experienced investors on here.
I bought a few thousand GMS at 7.67p and am looking at the long term.
My question is, what in your opinion, is an ideal target price I should be aiming for? I know ''as high as possible'' is probably the obvious answer but, I am trying to gauge where I should realistically be aiming for??
TIA..
If it has been reversed (who knows), many people haven’t noticed ??
Now showing as reversed on LSE?
What the hell?