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I agree they can't extend forever, and I would like to think that GMS defaulting is bad for all shareholders, including SF. What if defaulting on the debt is not negative for SF? I am just wary of what happened with previous UAE based companies listed in London.....the common factor was the majority or controlling shareholder and lousy corporate governance.
ADCB is the lead bank on the deal, judging from Companies House documents, and they are coming off a rough year with NMC (making the bank the other common factor with NMC).
4corners - they aren't going to roll over the deadline forever … there will become a point where if they cannot agree this will become a lot riskier.
Clearly the demands and GMS are trying to achieve is not easy to agree on... which is good from our point of view as it is clearly in our favour... there will become a point tho when it looks unlikely to be achieved and GMS will end up defaulting as the banks will pull the plug.
14 trading days left to meet n agreement.. still every chance of happening.
Yes, I meant the odds of them agreeing to something this month seem low. Obviously I am happy if they do agree on something this month and I am proven wrong.
I’m thinking deal before Feb month end
4C - are you saying odds on another extension?
lol- hi HH. You in here too? Could be a gusher soon.
Likely we are looking at couple of months as they drag this one out. SF probably wants to buy some time to crater the share price and make a bid again at 10p (or even lower, who knows). Part of the "frustrate minority shareholders" playbook
fiance decisions
Not nessacerily accumulating mate but there are enough orders on the book and its low enough volume for it not to drop back... unless someone suddenly runs for the exit but imo if they were on for that they would have done it by now rather than rolling over into 2 extensions.
Cam, you reckon someone is accumulating?
Disagree unless there is suddenly a huge flurry of selling we won't be going back to 5p... the volume is to low... more likely to get buying here on in the closer we get to a result & the bid is stacked to 5.9p
Totally agreed....or unless therr is a bid
Until the funding is sorted this is going nowhere,
bit of support around 6.30ish, breaks that it`s
down to 5 again.
Bigsmoke - ig
If you have Bloomberg and the right market access you can see the depth and breadth, obviously not dark markets.
Cam - what you using for the DMA order book? Thanks.
to see we held the rise. come on. 12p at least.
Bid 330k down to 6p
Ask 120k up to 8p
If you look at the DMA order book you will see what I mean... the bid is stacked and constantly getting a higher bid with bigger orders.. the ask is drying up.
Price action is as important as fundamentals as it is the first signal of what the market anticipates, even before the chart.
A few more pi's get their head around the story here and the likelihood of positive developments then it'll rise to 9p before news.
Well.....the demand dried up as well which is why it fell, and there is no sustained demand unless things are clear
4Corners
If supply dries up.. the price rises... price fell back on Friday because the supply increased. Stocks do rise if undervalued, this could easily go to 9/10p before news lands especially for anyone who has done their homework.
Need very strong news that exposes value (or the lack of) for the shares to have sustained high (or low) prices. Else, its just a function of random demand/supply, as was the case on Friday.
Looks like the ask has finally dried up... a little bit more interest and this should start to move up imo.
Lets hope we get an early positive news release.
Hi Camkite- some really good professional analysis. Many thanks for that. I would agree with your comments regarding Seafox and potential uncertainties but a good risk reward play. Have a nice weekend and this BB has a really great contributor.
Hi Mate
I think there (all going well) considerable growth going forward... Reminds me a little of MCRO which the market was reading wrong last year... digging deeper all points to a positive from here imo.
If we skim over the HY & most recent results
"Adjusted EBITDA increased by 34% to US$ 31.4 million (H1 2019: US$ 23.4 million) with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 63% (H1 2019: 43%)
The 2019/20 cost saving programme has secured US$ 16.5 million in savings, on an annualised basis, significantly exceeding the original target of US$ 6.0 million set in March 2019.
General and administrative expenses fell by 43% (US$ 3.7 million) reflecting the full impact of cost savings implemented in 2019 and early 2020.
Adjusted EBITDA at US$ 31.4 million was 34% above that achieved in the comparative period last year.
Secured backlog now stands at US$ 225.1 million. This is up by US$ 14.6 million (7%) compared to the same period last year."
H1 2020 net cash flow before debt service stood at $15.2m
Net borrowings as at 30 June 2020 stood at $394.4m
Total equity $321m
At todays conversion is £233m ... so if we clear all debt we would be left with £233m.
IMO mate those are strong results... and there is a lovely gap on the chart at around 33p "GAPS GET FILLED" that gap appeared at the same time as the uncertainty regarding the debt... if the uncertainty is removed... it wont take long for the gap to be filled IMO.
The question and uncertainty surrounds Seafox's intentions and without digging deeper it looks risky... given they are big players in the industry in the jurisdiction if this statement is true and they aren't on to steal the assets "as far as we are concerned, we will protect the best interest of the company, its shareholders and all stakeholders."
We will be looking at some dilution for the debt situation and as they have clearly stated on more favourable terms with the bank they think raising of the funds will be easier (probably have plenty of deep pocket Saudis happy to front it)
& if the dilution is to JUST pay off the debt then it doesn't matter as the NAV will increase - with more shares in issue.
Provided their intentions are genuine... could you think of a better company suited to the job of turning this company around ? http://www.seafox.com/
33p and upwards (provided their genuine)!