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Really?I can see the whole UK energy sector in red,so no wonder that troubled company like GKP will go down the most. Current situation will continuously creat lower highs and lower lows until/if there is positive outcome.
PUTUP doesn't work in isolation.
He never did. And PUTUP knows that because his acolytes are paid by his Owner. One way or another.
Trouble is, we don't know who his Owner is!!
And I don't care.
Because I own serious shares in GKP and care about its future.
And that lot don't.
And I'll continue exposing this bb corruption if only for the honest investors who just want to understand what's actually going on in GKP right now...to the best of my understanding and ability.
I'll tell the truth as I see it.
Not as others projected (PUTUP) that the CPR would be completely depleted by the end of 2022.
What a load of projected tosh. Yet he was selling that as a truth.
Here's the truth.
We've got a problem.
Let's give the Board the chance to deal with it.
I reckon they're doing a decent job in very difficult circumstances.
I know I'm in danger of reading like a Boardroom sympathiser.
I'm not.
I'm a realist.
"at the end of the year we are still owed CRP - somewhere in the region of 13p per share assuming a full return to normality in the 4Q and ignoring receivables."
I can't agree with the above because the CRP by definition is the sum of costs that are yet to be paid back, and since the receivables are unpaid invoices which is made up largely from CO stream, then that part of the CRP should remain in the CRP until they are paid. So, if say $120 m out of the $151m unpaid invoices come from the CRP, then that sum is still in the CRP! And it represens about 80% of the estimated (51p ?) per FD share.
Therefore, as I see it it's still the CRP what really matters not the receivables.
Best Regards ValueS
Pump and dump. We are such numpties
Those are stange accusations. From my side I can say that
1) any investor in GKP should read and understand the profit sharing contract (and this is what PUTUP encouraged people to do)
2) Back last year I have spend a full day building the cashflow model and PUTUP's answers and clarifications were very useful, for which I am grateful.
I frankly feel bad - the guy spends a lot of time giving useful info for free and teaching the same stuff over and over again and gets a lot of s^&t in return. I would have given up long time ago.
The modern phenomenon of conspiracy theories seems to be firmly in place on this site and with the usual characteristics - no demonstrable evidence or logic. What a shame and indeed shame on those involved
Why on earth do some people think that negative remarks about GKP on bulletin boards such as this are only done for payment?
Circumstances, both within and around the company & region, manage the negative interpretation quite well without payment.
All conjecture. Let's wait for 31st Aug.
As for when the pipe opens and what happens after, nobody on here knows despite posturings.
Hi Slings,
My only issue with is P is that he's corrupting this bb with financial b/s that has nothing to do with the real GKP world right now.
What do you want to know from me?
I'll give you a real view as I see it.
But it will be based on a a reasoned and serious assessment of what's Boardroom thinking right now.
I have no inside info'.
But I am a seasoned senior Executive if that is of any consequence (I wonder sometimes nowadays).
SC.
Hi Straycat, you write.
"The point is that this site is now being manipulated by paid posters. Probably without any investment in the future of GKP ".
It is suspicious why some are doing that. However if we look back in the history of this company, right to the TK days, it was clear that there were boiler room scams in operation then. I don't know whether we have the same scammers back again but clearly the motives are the same and its all about money, trying to run down stock by either persuading other investors not to buy or even better to sell up. I actually welcome negative views about this stock , as its a really corrupt location that we operate in. However I prefer factual points and not lies and clear manipulation.
Anyone remember that moron? Putup sounds like the same character. However this time the narrative is out of their control. Though the big boys may have already got most out.
Hello Straycat, the only acronym needed for your post is P - P for pathetic - and the only number needed is 0 - 0 out of 10.
You do have some interesting things to say so why not cut out the irrational obsession with that top class poster Putup?
The first place paid financial analysts go to when they are challenged is numbers and acronyms.
And that's what PUTUP represents.
They will never have actually run a serious business. It's a pipedream for them.
Because they are devoid of any interpretation and general management insight/vision experience.
So for the uninitiated:-
FD =Fully Diluted share;
FCF = Free Cash Flow;
CRP =Cost Recovery Pool.
The point is that this site is now being manipulated by paid posters. Probably without any investment in the future of GKP .
So here's the truth.
We have a serious problem due to circumstances out of our control.
But the oil will flow.
JH's job right now is to limit our exposure as far as he is able.
And that's exactly what he's doing.
Don't be intimidated by acronyms and pitiful financial analysis which is completely irrelevant right now.
Look at what GKP are doing today to protect our position in an environment which is largely out of their control and unpredictable.
The oil will flow.
JH has one job.
To enable that.
And he is.
Turkey’s foreign minister going to Iraq. Iraq’s oil minister to visit Turkey sounds positive, or is it another false dawn in advance of a grand meeting between Iraq PM / Erdogan as in the picture taken March 21. 4 days in advance of the pipeline closure. No need to guess what was agreed on that occasion as the KRG / IOC’s are paying the price.
Published 2h ago, “ Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will visit Baghdad and Erbil on Aug. 23 and 24, according to four Iraqi officials,”.
https://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/upcoming-iraq-turkey-diplomacy-aims-for-for-pipeline-progress-46012/
If Turkey is laying those conditions out, then iraq/KRG should start building an alternative pipeline now!
Nah. I just do the work.
Finance. Not American.
I covered that already below...
FFS chaps, take a pill. It’s GKP, it’s always a gamble, it’s always a drama. Look forward to a weekend with hopefully a bit of sun and get a nice glass down yer neck.
Someone likes to show off...what's your background?
& if the pipeline resumes??
Ah Straycat, your poetic excellence knows no bounds. A basic sum of value:
Cash as of Aug 8: 27p per FD share
FCF created in Aug: 0 (or somewhat negative)
FCF created in Sep: likely zero, possibly a small positive, but, in any case, likely immaterial
4Q of '23: some where between zero and that which we make if we get back to 55k for all of the 4Q so: 0-16p (the bulk of this is from cost recovery)
So that's free cash flow per share between now and the end of the year. A 0 to circa 16p per share swing. Almost irrelevant in the grand scheme of things and, as you say, one might simply forget everything performance related that one might expect for the year.
(For completeness, at the end of the year we are still owed CRP - somewhere in the region of 13p per share assuming a full return to normality in the 4Q and ignoring receivables. Ok, you want to ignore this - fine.)
It really comes down to two things:
(A) Will we get paid for the $151 million in receivables we are due? This IS material. 51p per FD share. The receivables DO matter. A lot.
(B) Do we have a future business at all? If we ignore the CRP balance as you requested, we have just the value of the Profit Oil stream. I value 55k in perpetuity at somewhere between 80p and £1 per FD share (and more like the lower end). If you are really prepared to pay now for 85k you might scale that accordingly (but certainly the investment required to get to 85k crashes the free cash flow generation until you get there).
Unsurprisingly, it's all very binary. Will the GKP business model (as per the current PSC) survive and will we ever get paid for the receivables? Markets hate all or nothing scenarios.
Given A and B are inextricably tied (ie they can be summed together) you can even estimate the probability the market places currently on a good (things are resolved before 4Q) versus bad outcome (worth only current cash). Perhaps unsurprisingly, that probability currently works out to be about 50:50.
To say "we're in shape for the long haul" beggars belief in the face of current circumstances. On the contrary, everything is at risk. I'm long and I hope I'm not wrong. Place your bets, but it could go either way.
Giddy up.
So take the $80m and look at any future cash flow projections that you might propose over the next six months.
ignore recovery costs et al. Irrelevant right now because outside of JH's control.
In fact, ignore everything else that has been contractually agreed.
But control manageable operational costs, including development capex where it is clearly unnecessary in the circumstances..
We're in shape for the long haul.
Ignore the P&L. Right now it doesn't matter.
Not relevant right now.
Btw, If you stop saying 'huh', then I'll stop accusing you of being from the USA and a Hick to boot!
Yeehah!!!
Ha! What American heritage is that? I have none.
I believe/hope that oil will flow - else I would have sold out (in contrast to recent, albeit small, buying which is already underwater). It's not a certainty, however, and certainly not as to when. Each month direct costs aren't recovered means we are owed more and more by the KRG. The current situation doesn't self-finance anything... The stock is cheap - only if you believe we are back to 55k production and pre-closure sales mechanisms before year end. Until then it's all a yawn.
It is good for Genel to have some positive news from Kurdistan where DNO has, after reopening to check all was OK, found that it was and that local traders were flocking around to buy some 20/- b/d. As can be seen above prices are at a discount but are paid in cash and in advance which has a nice feel about it.
It’s like the old days at Tawke as the tankers collect the off-take from the field and whilst it’s not Christmas it is better than the proverbial sharp stick and such revenue is very welcome and probably covers G&A costs to a large degree.
At 80p this is no time to jettison Genel and although there is no sign yet of peace on the pipeline front I still believe it would be ridiculous for it to remain shut and therefore Genel will have significant further upside for the patient investor.
From another aboard so can't vouch for authenticity.
Kurdistan Watch
@KurdistanWatch
Economist and university professor Nabil Marsumi claims Turkey has presented six conditions to the Iraqi government for the resumption of KRG oil exports:
1. Suspend the Iran-Iraq oil for gas agreement, given Turkey's 50-year oil contract with the Kurdistan Region.
2. Provide compensation for restarting oil exports from the Kurdistan Region.
3. Withdraw Iraq's second complaint at the International Court of Arbitration (2018-2022).
4. Maintain the $13 per barrel oil discount to Turkey as before.
5. Pay the $7 per barrel transportation fee to Turkish company Botaş.
6. Iraq should cover the expenses for repairing the Iraq-Turkey pipeline.
Words like Court Win, shoot, self and foot come to mind....
Some of us have been saying for months they should have been resuming production and making sales.
Was the only way to get the idiots to come together and reach a deal.