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Zoros .. great post and just shows how everyone can have different views but still be correct in some way. We really can only go on the information given by both companies, even though they are slightly different. It has been a good and informative discussion. We need more of this. Fubar thanks for clarifying those periods well done ! We may all be wrong in our assumptions I just hope it’s to our benefit sooner than later.
Then there ‘are’ reasons going on in the background etc …. ( typo !)
I think you’re right. A lot depends on escalation of drilling down and deep.
Im in two minds about what occurs around xmas time. I’d like to think we’re around the 30 p mark if MRE is released but that’s now uncertain due to mixed messages from the two big S men SD and SB!
This share has no reason not to do incredibly well. The company has more potential than most in this sector for all the reasons we know. A lot is in Newcresfs hands however , and to date they’re either playing it by the book and safe and demurely but is that because of diligence and conservatism or another game plan afoot ? That’s what I can’t decide upon !
Either way we’re on our way up slowly but surely after a downward spiral. If that doesn’t happen soon then there aren’t reasons for it going on in the background that we don’t know about.
No one can say this isn’t a rollercoaster journey. But I’m so pleased to be a part of its unravelling. What a corker if a crazy ride ! Thank god I drink ! :-)
First ore from Havieron will depends on Bryncut completing the contract term ( October 22) The release of news tonight will hopefully provide more information about the decline, along with more drill and assay results.
Starbright - but you are incorrect in saying production in 23 would be a "a whole year from what the JV partners are saying"
Zoros 10:21
Superb post! Will share on Twitter
Absolutely spot on FUBAR - if you look at slide 5 in the recent "Growth Presentation" the final stage has the title "First production CY23-24" which would tie up nicely with 1H FY 2024 IMO.
https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/GGP-Growth-Update-Final.pdf
ATB - Paddy
@notrader - no, I knew that NCM have June year-ends.
Sandeep said production could be 8Mtpa+ when fully operational/Bulking
Mmmm
Fubar - many thanks for this info.
Starbright - anything you wish to change in your post taking this info into consideration?
I emailed GGP with regard to the dates in this RNS and received this reply;
"Thank you for your email and interest in Greatland Gold.
In terms of your question, the dates are estimates provided to us by Newcrest, our JV partner and manager at Havieron.
• 1H FY 2024 refers to the period 1 July 2023 - 31 Dec 2023
• 2H FY 2024 refers to the period Jan 1, 2024 - 30 June 2024
I hope that helps clarifies your questions."
With apologies Zoros on the name misspelling.
Hi Zorps
To my way of thinking, the only reason to sell the cash cow would be to rear 2 or 3 pedigree calfs.
ATB
@Zoros - thanks for your excellent post. I agree (as I said earlier in this thread) that there's scope for more than the 2Mtpa throughput that NCM have based the PFS on. This could have a major impact on the key project economics - NPV, IRR, FCF, PBP etc.
I am less optimistic about the compression of the declared timeframe such that gold production is underway in 2023. Despite the presentation deck comment, GGP's own RNS says first ore in 1H FY2024 and first production of Gold/Copper in 2H FY2024. I think it is too punchy at this point to bring production forward a whole year from what the JV partners are saying.
So, to your three beliefs:
(a) No - I don't think that GGP will see revenue during 2023 from gold mined at Hav
(b) Yes - it's entirely possible that throughput will be at 3Mtpa r/r by the end of 2024
(c) Yes - I think they will want 100% too
Starbright / Lenz.
As has been pointed out by SB a few days ago, there appear to be some deliberate discrepancies between the NCM PFS and GGP's growth RNS and PFS response.
NCM are clearly citing H1 and H2/24 for first ore. GGP are citing CY23/24 (I believe their CY commences June) for first ore:
https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/GGP-Growth-Update-Final.pdf
The 'takeaway from all of this is that NCM are by their very nature taking a conservative view so as to establish a sure footing with the BoD and its shareholders. Anything better than this will be a bonus. GGP are 'bigging' up the study to attract big players.
I think we all agree that both perspectives are well and truly out of date before the ink dries.
I say again:
The PFS covered 53Mt of ore resource identified in the MMRE(inferred)(10.12.20).
This accounts for approximately 6% of the SE Crescent / N Breccia resourced during the MMRE (Current mother lode size: approx 900Mt).
28% of the MRE(inferred) is now uplifted to MRE(indicated): 2MozAuEq.
To date 1.7% of the SE Crescent / N Breccia now ‘indicates’ 2MozAuEq.
And all of that is from the SE crescent only.
In Q1/22 a MRE2(inferred) will be published. This will update (not upgrade) the remaining 72% of the original MMRE from additional infilling and additional growth drilling figures.
This is what the PFS is about, this is what Stage 1 (starter mine) is about (SLOS).
Stage 2: Continue drilling to increase the maiden resource. Publish a MRE2(inferred) for SE Crescent (Q1/22) to reflect this additional drilling. Complete the DFS (Q4/22).
Stage 3: MMRE(inferred) for Eastern Breccia. Additional MRE(inferred) for N Breccia.
Update MRE(indicated) for SE Crescent. Decline completes.
Stage 4: [2023/24] mine the SE Crescent. MRE(indicated) N Breccia. MRE2(inferred) E Breccia.
I for one genuinely believe:
(a) gold will emerge from Hav before the end of 2023.
(b) Throughput @ Telfer will exceed 3Mt/yr by the end of 2024.
(c) NCM will make a bid for all of Hav (post FS).
Enjoy and savour
Z
Thanks Bamps, much appreciated. I will reread the pfs, it is a massive project, I am looking forward to seeing how it develops.
Says more about your on character which is to be admired....top man. ATB
Doublehun - much unnecessary bad feeling between our clubs IMHO. WS was a great man - much to be admired. I am first and foremost a football fan, before any club allegiance. Although Sunday for me was painful in the EPL, Liverpool and how they played, and what JK has done can only be admired.
Thanks bamps sounds like an enormous undertaking.
Hi Scarabbeetle
The PFS superseded all early thinkings on first ore.
First gold produced will be 2024 H2.
Step back a bit and look at that PFS again and go to the mining page , on the right shows 4 levels of mining fronts but there are 9 mining fronts to take into account.
The top one 1st ore is a 120m deep, that is 120m of additional Decline before we can start.
120m relates to 845m of additional Decline to get to the base of this.
In addition there are 3 tunnels called the Western Decline coming from the 3 new Decline access tunnels coming off the main Decline
300m access tunnels
510m Western Decline
500m of stoping tunnels x3
+ 3 or 4 ancillary offshoots on 3 levels
+ additional shafts
There are far more tunnels involved than the original sub level caving ideas, maybe 3,500m in the 1st ore phase let alone the other 8 phases.
Plus the additional shafts.
I’m signing off now I don’t like the way the boards gone of late, wrong people getting banned
StarBright yes that’s what it says just now but that is all out of date .. and as someone said it is only to tick the boxes, they want ore to Telfer double quick and that won’t be the only mining method, so expect a lot more than that in the years to come
Is it me or do most of your informative posts lean toward the negative?
Here’s what the PFS actually says:
Indicative Havieron Mine Production Profile (Year, mt)
2024 0.5
2025 1.6
2026 2.0
2027 2.0
2028 2.0
2029 2.0
2030 2.1
2031 1.1
2032 0.3
Thx again Bamps .. knew you would come up trumps ;-)
Thanks both