Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Your incorrect GGPTHRand through. The other 25% will be whatever ggp want for it could be $5 billion. What I mean is the other 25% is not up for sale. 8mj
Your incorrect GGPTHRand through. The other 25% will be whatever ggp want for it could be $5 billion. What I mean is the other 25% is not up for sale.
Hi GGP. I see it very slightly differently. If they pay 200m for 5% and we only own 25% then value for us is 1bn. However they are only valuing HAV on what is certain so far and we know there’s much more to come. Juri isn’t included and not is Scally. Your 1.2bn might be right on that basis - fingers crossed!!!!
Fact: Phelps wears socks and sandals. Get a life, pal.
Every few weeks a new one turns up. Phelps turned up 2 weeks ago, surely a new one is just around the corner.
Anyways, top-up Thursday tomorrow, think I’ll go for a nice round 77k shares.
Hey Kevin, if we get say $200m for the 5% the other 25% is worth $1bn, so with the $200m already received kind of values us at $1.2bn no? So 6x. At least that’s how I’d see it….
Phelps...and Newcrest are saying, we definitely want some more of that asset....it's a good one....
Took a position for 100k shares this week. Have looked in on this BB a few times but the arguing doesn't ever seem to stop?
Is there any need? One has to question their lifestyle choices when they think a good one is arguing with strangers all day on the internet.
Chill out boys.
Sorry - shouldn’t really go below the 5x
The SP would be 5x the 5% FMV not 6 GGPThru.. as the market will discount the 5% agreed sale leaving us with 25%. This is the key to a stable SP (I hope) as we shouldn’t really go below the 5% as this is in truth the minimum value of the HAV asset )fraction of a fraction) and doesn’t include non JV assets
I made a similar calculation then realised that I don't know what "the 5%" is five percent of! Five percent of Haveron deposit? Five percent of the company (doesn't make sense as they could just buy lots of shares to achieve this).
This is my post from the 19/1/22 and is roughly stating what JJNorton is saying.
The only difference is I am calculating Havs worth from the amount Newcrest give us for our 5%. (I think it is impossible to calculate what that figure will be ourselves and will have to leave it to the experts)…
I have been doing a bit of working out on how much our shares will be worth if we get a certain amount offered for the additional 5% of Havieron.
The price is only based on valuing Havieron and does not take into account, cash in the bank or any value put on our other properties.
I am also assuming that we will have to pay 50 million back to Newcrest and whilst that loan was in dollars, for ease of calculations I have assumed it is pound sterling. ( with 8%interest etc to be paid, accounted for in this sum)
I have calculated the value based on the current shares in issue and also taking into account options and the amount due to Pacific trends.
Shares now - 4,046,547,171. Shares after options etc. - 4,295,077,171.
amount received for 5%. Less repayment of loan Add 25% retained. Price per share now. Price per share after options.
100 million. 50 million. 550 million. 13.59p. 12.81p.
150 million. 100 million. 850 million. 21.00p. 19.8p.
200 million. 150 million. 1150 million. 28.42p. 26.77p.
250 million. 200 million. 1450 million. 35.83p. 33.76p.
300 million. 250 million. 1750 million. 43.25p. 40.74p.
350 million. 300 million. 2050 million. 50.66p. 47.73p.
400 million. 350 million. 2350 million. 58.07p. 54.71p.
450 million. 400 million. 2650 million. 65.49p. 61.7p.
Hi Notrader, you're not at all argumentative. The share price/mcap reflects current perceived value at this moment in time. I'm just looking at what may happen to our sp post 5% sale. And as we're selling part of our business which includes the assets and the costs of extraction then I think the price paid will be a market value and reflect in share price.
Let's leave it there, I'm only gently offering my view and would welcome yours. JJ
For frack sake, there’s far too many people on this board looking to jump down people’s throats before thinking a bit.
JJNorton was merely using today’s price as gauge/example. He’s saying what we’ve been saying for a while. Whatever the 5% is, you can argue that our mcap in theory after that should be 6x(the 5%) at least not counting anything else. Crying out loud guys, stop being so touchy.
Or 12.5 months ago...
JJM - don't mean to be argumentative, but as an example of why it's faulty, what if you took the MCap from around 3 weeks ago when it was nearer 700m. Our 'assets' have not changed in that time, but it give a significantly different 'pivot point'
OMG, WTF has Norton been smoking!. FFS…that’s a straight filter bin.
Hi Notrader, I'm not saying our assets reflect our market value.
I'm saying that what is paid for our 5% reflects Real value, because it is discounted to allow for time, costs of extraction and risk. Therefore if we achieve more than one sixth of our current mcap for our 5% then our sp should rise accordingly.
JJN - you are making the assumption that our current MCap is directly related to the value of our assets. Unfortunately, the market doesn't work like that.
Yes, JLN, as you correctly said, 'simple' is the keyword.
I'll leave it to others to further explain the error of your ways.
Guys, chill. JJNorton wasn’t using the SP to calculate value, merely the SP after we get the valuation of the 5%. It’s another way of looking at the possible movement of the SP after we get the cash.
Hi Potters field, if you take my arguement that I'm temporarily ignoring any other gold fields, then the current market cap is relevant. If you divide it by six then that is the current market view of our 5%. If we achieve more than that then our price should rise accordingly.
JJNorton I think you repeated yourself yourself yourself
Current market cap is irrelevant when working out the 5%.
Also, the value of the remaining 25% will very likely increase over time as the unknowns turn into knows.
The value that we achieve for our 5% will give us a true value for our remaining 25%.
The price paid for our 5% will be a discounted value to reflect the time costs and risks of digging out the gold . This will be a real market value
It is not unreasonable ,therefore, to assume that our remaining 25% is really worth 5 times this amount.
To get a ballpark idea about share price, I'm dismissing any future value to our other potential gold Fields.
As our current market cap is circa 500 m ,if we divide that by 5 = 100m.
£100m for our 5 % is therefore the pivot point. 50% more would give a 50% increase to our share price etc etc.
Then add back in current perceived value for the rest.
Very simplistic ,I know but gives me a simple view of my investment.Touch and hold a clip to pin it. Unpinned clips will be deleted after 1 hour.The value that we achieve for our 5% will give us a true value for our remaining 25%.
The price paid for our 5% will be a discounted value to reflect the time costs and risks of digging out the gold . This will be a real market value
It is not unreasonable ,therefore, to assume that our remaining 25% is really worth 5 times this amount.
To get a ballpark idea about share price, I'm dismissing any future value to our other potential gold Fields.
As our current market cap is circa 500 m ,if we divide that by 5 = 100m.
£100m for our 5 % is therefore the pivot point. 50% more would give a 50% increase to our share price etc etc.
Then add back in current perceived value for the rest.
Very simplistic ,I know but gives me a simple view of my investment.Touch and hold a clip to pin it. Unpinned clips will be deleted after 1 hour.The value that we achieve for our 5% will give us a true value for our remaining 25%.
The price paid for our 5% will be a discounted value to reflect the time costs and risks of digging out the gold . This will be a real market value
It is not unreasonable ,therefore, to assume that our remaining 25% is really worth 5 times this amount.
To get a ballpark idea about share price, I'm dismissing any future value to our other potential gold Fields.
As our current market cap is circa 500 m ,if we divide that by 5 = 100m.
£100m for our 5 % is therefore the pivot point. 50% more would give a 50% increase to our share price etc etc.
Then add back in current perceived value for the rest.
Very simplistic ,I know but gives me a simple view of my investment.