Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Special dividend lol. What planet are you on
I'll say it once more (as the last time it was removed!) IMHO if we get shafted on the 5% (i.e. the $50 - $100m Merc suggested) then for my money it s Newcrest that are behind the last 12 months or so shenanigans (not directly themselves but via a proxy such as JPM).
Still expecting to get screwed over on what we have is really worth but hey ho what will be will be and there's nothing we can do to change it.
We're all just passengers along for the ride!
Hi Ben, thats a nice round figure of 320 million usd, now to split it up.
50 million pay back loan, leaves 270 m
100 million for future HAV spending but payed in NCM shares so value increases. Leaves 170 m
70 million for our other projects leaves 100 million
100 million for special divi.
that works out well for me. Ciao DM
Mercedes Man, how on earth do you get £50-100 million. Do you have any idea of worth or not. Jeez Some people.
Well Pleb, you have clearly been wrong on everything else, so I wouldn't be surprised. Have you managed to work out the difference between an unfunded company in the Yorkshire Moors and GGP yet? I realise that may be beyond your comprehension.
Phelps - you don't half come out with some rubbish! "I expect it to be protracted" Newcrest have already brought it forward 11 months ahead of the JV schedule. And you obviously don't understand what FMV means.
These 5% valuations are getting more absurd by the day!
£200m, £250m, £350m!!! I dont know what you are smoking but it must be on prescription because its bloody strong.
Its Scallywag 2.0 on here now. That offer is going to be £50-100m and because everyones expectations are currently orbiting the rings of Saturn there will likely be a big selloff as its seen as a bad result!
Probably why JPM went short, they know you lot have lost the plot.
Have we learned nothing?
Doubt anyone gives a flying f-o-o-k what you think!!
39.5p if 5% sold (so 25% remaining)
Ahhh - I knew it all sounded far too good - but hey ho I would still be happy with a revised 47.4p as GGP’s new SP for just Havieron alone!!! Many thanks.
Hi redirons.
You know that $320 million is a in the ground price for 5% of haverion. So times that by 5 to achieve a in the ground price of $1.6billion. If we go as joint partners and mine, the out of ground price should be at least twice as much as in the ground. $3.2 billion or around £2.5 billion not sure about conversion rates.
Rediron - we would own 25% of Hav.
Id settle for a round £1.00 :)
Red irons, I think you forgot to take account of the 30% we own not the 100%.
@sandgrounded - They can only use this pre-agreed FMV process for 5% the one time as per the JV contract I think, but of course they can come back at any time and put in an offer for all of or a percentage of Hav, but probably well aware that it will cost them more than a favourable (in their view) valuation from the FMV process set out might, as GGP (and most of us) will be unwilling to part with Hav for anything they might term reasonable.
As I detailed earlier in another thread, adjudication or not, we probably end up not being informed of what a 3rd party FMV is or what valuations both submnitted - just what is agreed.
Unfortunately IMO as a 3rd party FMV would be a better indicator of FMV (as of Feb 2022) for our entire stake of Hav, some really weird valuations can result from adjudication as I displayed earlier and that was just playing around with numbers from one party and using the same FMV conclusion from a 3rd party.
Hi rediron
If you times 6.4 by 0.3 it gives 1.92b that would be roughly what you can start to value the company at .
I would of thought
Sorry need a hand here because can’t agree with Chrisatbirdies maths. If Ben is right and I have no reason to suspect he is not, then if $320m = 5% then surely 100% = 20 x $6.4bn for the value of Hav? If you then convert $6.4bn into £’s = £4.73bn. Therefore if our current Mcap is £562m dividing £4.73bn by £562m = 11.3879. If you multiply our current SP (13.9p) x 11.3879 = £1.58 that our SP should rise to as FMV for the whole of Havieron. Please Note: this excludes any additional value from the Juri JV or from our 100% owned tenements as they unfold.
Can someone please dispute my logic or my maths as this is the first time I have got excited over what our SP really might be as a minimum? Hope I haven’t just made a fool of myself and obviously I know it depends on Ben’s contacts being right!!!!
Appreciate that Kevin thanks. I was thinking that they may think it too dear now, but then we get an almighty hit at Zipa or wherever and suddenly it is more attractive to take the5%. ( even if it would be dearer). My thoughts by the way is they can’t have two bites of the cherry!
@ sandgrounded They don’t have to buy as it is an option but they couldn’t get it at anything less than the independent arbitration value and of course value will increase over time - hence I am sure they will accept the independent view if it gets to that point
If it goes to arbitration and Newcrest decide not to progress the sale, can they come back before the 12 month window shuts in December?
Hi Ben
Not sure how you heard, but i hope your right. Seems about right to me. As that's an in the ground price i think it values haverion at $3.2 billion or around 60p
Cheers Kevin, more people jumping in before reading (eye till emoji). CB, what Kevin said.
Future value could be anything! In theory the difference between payment for in-ground value and eventual production value could be anything…
Be wonderful if it was true but forgive me for being slightly skeptical
JJN - my view is that I am content to await the outcome of the process. I hope it will have a material effect on the SP, as it will enhance the paper value of my portfolio, but not sweating over it. I consider it as another staging point (of which there will be a number, including further drill results including other prospects,, MRE2, FS etc) all part of the journey to realising the full potential of the company.
@CB we were talking about the MINIMUM value of GGP after 5% is agreed.