Member Info for Matty56

"interestied"

Surely if the decision to mine happens and they were to sell their shares it would be at a price well over 35p?

Yes, to be clear I wasn't criticising your speculation on a potential strategy - just that I don't see it myself. But it does lead to the question on what any company should do wrt working in best interests of shareholders - short Vs medium Vs long-term gets tricky and, for a smaller business, often depends on the largest shareholders personal plans, desire for cash now vs. in the future, tax & inheritance planning etc...

Like you, I got in low (small amount) on a punt based on random mention of OMI on another board - it then went ballistic. Kicked myself i didn't sell at the high but held on...now I wish I'd bought more and wondering whether I still should!

Sounds a bit strange to me - do people really think Ggp would 'play down' potential of their assets in order to look less attractive as a take over target? Surely getting things factored in (and thereby higher price) makes an acquisition less attractive? None of the above means I don't want scally and other sites to come good but not sure I buy playing down as a legitimate corporate strategy for a growth focussed business...

The current share price feels low - but we need to bear in mind an investment in GGP today doesn't provide any returns in the short/medium term. So the current valuation needs to factor in no cashflow for a period of time...and also a small risk it will never come - effectively money going in now is parked (thinking investment vs. trading in and out) and as more news comes in some investors will make a call when is the right time to enter in order to benefit from rising valuation as real value (revenue, profit) materialises/gets closer to being realised. There's a floor as there's clearly a real asset here, but the SP is clearly going to move around a bit as sentiment changes about future value, certainty, call on just holding vs. moving to other opportunities before returning closer to real revenue date etc. My view is that the ultimate producing value to a 25% holder will lead to a valuation, and associated share price, in excess of $2 billion

That's just a weird statement Blanty...as an investor I'm trying to figure out potential upside here, and also if there are any hidden risks... whatever, as per numerous debates on this board best to keep one's head down and not ask anything of anyone I suppose...

Thanks Jiffy - do you know how much NCM is spending per month/year on the exploration works? I can't find any details of that - maybe looking in the wrong place?

Thanks Blanty - I've done a lot of looking but it's hard to figure out how much they have spent and committed to spend so far. I assume it's a lot - but not enough to hit their share price from a cost (negative) perspective, but also owning up to 75% doesn't seem to have bumped it up much either?

Does anyone know how much NCM has paid up/committed to pay + costs they have agreed to bear for their stake? I assume they have got the majority share of the future 'mine' at a bargain? For GGP that's not a negative - keep hold of quarter and get the upside with no cost risk. Just curious as the mine may be big enough to influence the NCM share price (given they are majority owners) but doesn't seem to have much as yet...

I don't understand the statement that the price of gold doesn't matter now? Surely the price of gold now, the trend, the expectation of future price all factor in to sentiment on the current (non-producing) and future value of the asset and therefore investors view on whether they would buy in?

I think this is a very good assessment of the situation. The value of GGP went from from c.40mm (typical for an explorer who maybe has a sniff of something good, that maybe could be monetised through a sale to a miner), to 800mm when it was confirmed there's definitely something good down there (and yes, I know, for a while well over 1 billion) - and now it's sitting around that level. A difference seems to be that GGP wants to stay in the game and be involved in the exploitation of the asset - a reasonable ambition - but they also want to keep doing the 'little' exploration company exploration stuff. I'm not sure they fit in terms of company structure - and whether an exploration company should fund it's future search using earnings from one successful mine vs. sell the asset and focus on their skill set?

You have to go elsewhere to find another 40 to 800 jump, and you have to wait for more concrete data for the 800 to move up. I think it will - unless something negative comes from on the ground or the financial engineering around the JV is flawed somehow. I do wonder why GH left in what seems like a bit of a hurry on the back of what seems like great news...certainly someone didn't agree on approach with someone else?

Bottom line I think this mine is going to happen and share price will be 50+ barring an unforeseen disaster

Yes...someone sold the shares to you...

Indeed - the FSA doesn't exist anymore since it became FCA and PRA, but clearly they don't have much, if any, realtime monitoring of stock markets going on - that falls as an obligation of the regulated exchange itself. But it's tricky - if you are a broker with buy and sell orders to fulfill you could just cross on the screen at current price - or you could do the sells (possibly pushing price down) and then the buys (pushing price up) - both your clients happy and you have clearly acted in your customers' best interests which is a key principle of FCA regulation...

The behaviour on this board is a bit bizarre to most observers. There's lots of good stuff, some I wonder why posted and some is just designed to get peoples' backs up...there seem to be 4 main types:

1.) Long term holders who believe in the upside potential and like to talk about the things that back that up
2.) Trader types who are looking for shorter term moves/sentiment and are perhaps trying to influence that sentiment
3.) Those for whom schadenfreude is a way of life - sad for them but it is what it is
4.) Some, who seem to have no vested interest, but seem to enjoying stirring things up for no reason and have nothing better to do...

I also don't get the regular commotion about buys showing as sells and vice versa, surely we can't see whether we hit a sitting bid or offer, or whether our bid or offer is hit...so there is no real way of knowing whether any trade will show as a buy or sell in usual trading conditions?

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