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IMO share price reflects the current uncertainty on what is happening with Telfer and Havieron ref: Newmont's divestment. Until all cleared up this could continue.
Well said Bamps! Fundamentals are getting better and better whilst the share price is going down which is a huge buying opportunity.
In the words of Benjamin Graham ‘The intelligent investor realizes that stocks become more risky, not less, as their prices rise—and less risky, not more, as their prices fall.’
Nowt t'do with Oz , Ace
The informal British phrase big girl’s blouse denotes a man regarded as weak, cowardly or oversensitive.
It seems to have originated in Lancashire, a county in northwestern England.
The earliest recorded instance of the phrase is from the script, by John Stevenson1, of the British television sitcom Nearest and Dearest (2nd series, episode 1 – 1969), set in Colne, Lancashire:
I see AIM99.5 is having another go.
The trouble with you is you don’t understand the difference between “crap” as you suggest and a superb mining ore body.
You are very ignorant of the fact how good Havieron is and also very naive at what is at Hemi.
The Hemi deposit is a good asset but it’s nowhere as good as Havieron.
Both have been going since 2019.
Havieron is a vertical orebody.
Hemi has 6.
Havieron’s SE crescent grades are around 3.6
Hemi’s grades are 1 to 1.5 g/t
Havieron mine life 14-15 years
Hemi 10 years.
Havieron is forecast 370,000oz pa at 3mt pa
Hemi 550,000oz for 10mt pa
10mt at Havieron would produce 1moz pa due to the higher grades
Havieron will use the Telfer plant.
Hemi will need a brand new one.
Telfer has already got gas and electricity connected.
Hemi hasn’t procured those contracts yet.
De Grey haven’t achieved debt funding yet and just had a massive dilution to fund the plant.
Ggp has a debt facility in place.
De Grey is 19.9% owned by Gold Road.
There is NO copper at Hemi.
When you start having a pop at people get your own house in order first or you are likely to show how naive you are.
Ah you’ve already done that
Hi Rotherby, hope all good mate - don't forget the very dated data cut-off point as GGP themselves mentioned as below in an RNS in a protective capacity on 08th March after the valuation was published, these points could now work from Newmont's perspective. I suspect though that NEM will be in a mood to get a quick good deal based on the GS valuation to help meet that $2bn target within the next year as their shareholders are less focused on the minute detail on each asset.
From 08/09/23 RNS:
As is customary, the Newcrest scheme circular attaches an independent assessment by an Australian valuation advisory firm, Grant Samuel & Associates Pty Ltd (Grant Samuel), as to whether, in their opinion, the transaction is in the best interests of Newcrest shareholders. The assessment was produced by Grant Samuel independently of Newcrest. The Grant Samuel assessment includes a valuation for each material project in the Newcrest portfolio. In respect of Havieron, it is noted that:
§ The approach taken by Grant Samuel is to assess Newcrest's interest in Havieron (70%) on an aggregated basis with Newcrest's interest in Telfer (100%). Accordingly, Havieron has not been separately valued. The combined valuation therefore includes significant closure costs and other liabilities associated with Telfer (which Greatland has no exposure to).
§ Grant Samuel has applied its own assumptions and adjustments to arrive at their opinion as to the current combined value of hypothetical Telfer (100%) and Havieron (70%) scenarios.
§ Additionally, because Newcrest did not complete its own planned update to the Havieron Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) in August 2023, the Grant Samuel assessment is based on Newcrest's August 2022 MRE update, which only incorporated drilling results up to November 2021.
As previously announced, the feasibility study for Havieron is ongoing, with value enhancing options being assessed to maximise value and de-risk the project. The feasibility study will therefore be a up-to-date, comprehensive and optimised assessment of Havieron.
Assuming that Newmont's acquisition of Newcrest completes in November 2023 as expected, Greatland looks forward to the opportunity to work constructively with Newmont to optimise the development of Havieron, finalise the feasibility study and progress to a decision to mine.
@ Sureasblazes, I couldn't agree more! Mid/end last year I ended up topping up my GGP holdings by over 80%, at anything under 7p. I'm now maxed out, and then some, but, seeing the same, IMHO, ludicrously low levels now, I wish I had more to invest. DYOR & GLA
Agree it is a good price. I'm greedy and like to get the 'best' price.
I have another 250k to buy. Might get a few today, just waiting to see what the Americans do to the SP.
One thing I have not seen is that the that the report done as part of the Newcrest/Newmont take over was done about a year ago.
In the year I would suspect Telfer has lost value as more depleted.
Havieron may not having increased as similar risk still exist as the decline is at a stop and it is not complete i.e. at the top of the ore body.
On balance I think both are negative to the previous value, if the decline is complete then Telfer negative and Havieron positive, bring the value all other things being equal similar to the values in the report.
Don’t worry Magnum, in the grand scheme of things, any top up at these prices should prove an absolute bargain. I said I wasn’t going to buy any more, but just couldn’t help it today. I have every confidence that GGP will be successful in acquiring the 70% and Telfer, but even if I’m wrong, it’s a win win.
Up to an intraday high of $2185 so far, but backed off a little to $2175 now.
It's looking like that $2200 major breakout level is easily possible next week, if not today...
Someone has definitely slipped it the blue pill
Nm
Looking at todays muted share price I assume that a large position is building to be passed at close of business to GDXJ at a premium. This always happens on a Friday and we know that investors are putting money to work in gold ETFs. They in turn have no option but to buy in proportion to their weighting by stocks within their portfolio.
Hi Idealised. If i owned a shop it would have a nice big hardwood box with a big brass hinge and padlock, standing next to a live gold/silver chart and anyone can open an account with a coin. Guess what coin. ATB Speedy
Screw tally Money (formally Lionsgold) as they delisted their shares 5 years ago because a 'change of business' without any shareholder consideration and never brought it back to market, wouldn't trust them!
Big girl's blouses
Nice aussie touch there Panama - and have great day and hope you are making loadsamoney 😁
Lets keep it simple - it is all about location, location, location.
Spade - in’s & out’s of a dingo’s backside
That was very touching cobber; made me think of my old home 😁 (me being a brit now and all dat)
I "don’t understand the obsession" of people with no interest in investing in a share hanging around the discussion boards.
Gold going great guns… $2,167, a new all time high occurring now on a daily basis
Something seriously wrong here dont you think.
I don’t understand the obsession of Bamps etc with this junk. Clearly the market sees it as a loser.
De Grey up +10% over the last month and this is down -16%…. The market is backing the tier 1 winners
Morning Dip -thank you yet again for your tireless efforts on here.
For me, the recent webcast by SD (extracts quoted by your good self below),
And the following link (between minute 9:00 and 11:00)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=rTh-ZsKpna4
has helped me with my own personal roadmap for the way ahead:
Occasionally i have to reset my dials due to the plethora of ramping and disingenuous posters on here to try to 'declutter'.
IMO (therefore), I see this:
NEM know what they are doing. You dont't become the worlds biggest gold miner on a wing and a prayer. They understand their specialism like no other.
Consequently - they have decided Hav is never going to be a Tier 1. So they are divesting .
As Tom Palmer says in the link above - there is absolutely nothing wrong with a Tier2.
SD in his quote ( shown below in your post Dip) actually spends a reasonable amount of time telling his audience that this is his specialism.
The takeaway from this for me is that Hav is going to be successful due to economies of scale, but it will never be a Tier1.
The other takeaway (for me) is from SD's webcast the other day: the lower aquifer doesn't take 8+ months to dewater. I don't believe that - NEM have put the brakes on while they consolidate their holdings.
In summary I am relieved that Hav will be mined but conscious that there is yet another delay and production ore isn't going to happen this year (FCF).
Consequently I am projecting an SP of no more than 15p for 2024. (Based on GGP retaining 30%).
Obviously it gets too complicated to second guess the SP if other ownership options kick in.
I will also build into my considerations a JV (70/30) with Wyloo as the way forward.
No doubt - this will disgruntle a fair few PI's who are fraying at the edges from a patience perspective, but hey sometimes peeps need to reset.
A lot will happen this year (FS / D2M / continue with decline / new manager) but the biggest catalyst for me is development ore followed by production ore).
Z
My top up yesterday was a bit premature it seems.
Hi All, is the market generally down overall.? Still waiting for my 26p
I'm not having a pop at you CP, just looking at the potential plan GGP might have in mind to extend Telfer LOM from reading the GS Valuation and two scenarios and comments made. If folk look through the team, plenty of operational experience in the team that might aid extending LOM at Telfer if there are still some economically viable areas (not my area of expertise by any means) , especially given the way the Gold price is now trending.
Projects that wouldn't interest a major with 10 x T1 mines already as Shaun says, plenty of proven success in projects shed by majors for 100's of millions being used to propel the growth of smaller companies to mini majors after major industry M&A and the optimisation that is action afterwards and where the laser focus of a smaller mining company can extend LOM of older assets too.
We've had some good feedback from TH where Shaun discussed potential ways to economise by reducing workforce and looking at staggering mining and maintenance teams for instance. Just food for thought and again, look at the team as plenty of experience of Telfer itself or of doing the above at other mines or just general operational knowledge at a world class level. This is where they will begin to earn their worth in spades I imagine if the deal comes through.
https://greatlandgold.com/about-us/team/
Also important to remember that having the likes of Gaines, Barnaba, Wilson and co. greatly increase the ability to attract funding by their very presence, we wouldn't have achieved the existing funding agreements with ANZ, ING, HSBC and Wyloo without them also being present - as Shaun said it was all interdependent. Still, a deal needs to be made and the numbers presented to us to judge individually how accretive we consider them.
Https://youtu.be/5LdcK2GgZEA?si=MYjhhpqRy1iQflF1
Always worth listening to a few times IMO. Since the same discussions appear here week after week, the latest feedback from Shaun on such is relevant. It’s a waiting game from here. Newmont need to make their move before GGP can make their move. Could take a good chunk of 2024 before we know the outcome, who knows.