Listen to our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode 'Uncovering opportunities with investment trusts' with The AIC's Richard Stone here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
So, the AISC ($) in the new note is as follows:
2023 - 944
2024 - 717
2025 - 697
2026 - 697
2027 - 697
2028 - 786
2029 - 812
2030-2042 - 821
2042-2053 - 863
This includes block cave! Seems a bit excessive to me considering what we know about Cadia and other block cave projects. Massive room for improvement in share target in my eyes.
I hope it's pessimistic and the AISC is lower than that. But I think a few things need to be noted.
1. Cadia is not a good comparison because it isn't remote like Telfer is. There's cost getting people, equipment, and gold and copper in and/or out of Telfer that you don't have at Cadia.
2. There's also transportation of ore from Hav to Telfer. That's going to have some cost.
3. There's also the cost of processing the ore at Telfer. NCM isn't going to do that for free. They are going to charge the JV a nice fee for that. The existence of the processing facilities means lower CAPEX and quicker production -- but it also means that NCM will want to collect fees, and that's going to be included in AISC.
Hi Jack. You keep on posting subtle negatives here. Anyone that has done their research is fully aware of AISC at Telfer is high because of the very low grades being processed. You really must try harder. Speedy
I mentioned some time ago my suspicion that JTB was an alter ego of Arnold. Coincidence that he uses the nickname of another golfing hero?
Pretty sure you were invested here early on jackthebear before the big gains last year, but ended up selling out quite early on and missed a lot of the gains last year? I feel for you as we have all missed a few by not holding etc. and recall you cross ramping one of your 'the next GGP' holdings a few months ago too. Going from memory so apologies if I am getting it wrong and hope you have the luckk you missed out on here regardless with one of your other holdings :-))
Jack, you hadn’t thought that better grades would reduce the AISC? Have a look at Cadia, but ensure to keep in mind TMT comments on transport and tolling (this is me helping you to continue your self proclaimed bearish approach).
@JTB "The last time i checked Telfer has some of the highest AISC costs in the world at over $1000."
That's partly because of the remoteness, which applies to Hav and which I mentioned previously, but mostly because of the much lower grade of Telfer ore. When it takes ten times as much ore to get an ounce of gold, your AISC is going to be high.
That's not going to be the case with Hav. Grades are very good compared to Telfer. That said, some of the gold at Hav might never come out of the ground, if some areas of the ore body are a significantly lower grade. If the ore from some areas of the ore body is equivalent to the current grades at Telfer, it won't be economical to mine. So keep your eye on the ore grades as drill results come in from the northern and eastern breccias, as the drills go deeper, and with any further stepouts. Good grades almost certainly means economical to mine and a significantly larger resource. Poor grades and this might not end up as big as I think it is.
Heh. Really must learn to read other responses before responding myself. Can see the difference between grades at Hav and Telfer was already covered. Sorry for wasting your time (and mine).
Hi Tmt
Take a look at the BHP charts on this presentation
Tier 1 world class mine greater than $250m NPV(2006)
Look at what Hannam are saying and then see where you can put Havieron on those charts.
Havieron:-
World class Tier 1 asset looming.
Then have a look at how many were discovered of any real size between 1950-2006 (2000 to 2006 nil)
ATB:))
Hi Tmt
Forgot to post the link
https://www.bhp.com/-/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/2006/amecconference.pdf?
Thanks Bamps - you’re a hero as well on this Board as whenever I need a little lift you come and present facts that reassure all Greatlanders!! Will have another rum and go to bed with a smile on my face that I’m here but lucky to have such knowledgeable and selfless posters like you and others - thanks!!
Hi, Bamps. That's why I still don't regret my buy at 36p. Looks way too high right now but will eventually look genius, and I can wait.
Costs depend on the grade and how long a supply can be made and the subsequent length a contract can be made with the plant. Pretty sure these factors will drive the cost down when it comes to the crunch.