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13% down and looking for a reason
Funded my SIPP and bought another 8,018 @ 108.5p
Either something's desperately wrong on site or this is a very cheap bargain price.
Having previously sold some of my holding to pay for retirement , even though I expected GFM to rise to £2+( but thought play it safe)
I have had to go back in today and sold elsewhere to take advantage of this bargain price £1.07 and I am now scrambling around to get funds to BUY more
I can get a quote for 700 @ 117.9p (all the funds in my SIPP).
As Skopolitis said GFM is minting it - even at lower metal prices. I think the market will be surprised how much has been earned in Q2.
I cant buy stock this morning so don't know what's going on. Seems way oversold
Sorry to be a bore but I've been disproportionately thinking about the options. The 2020 EPS calculation uses 9,861,227 options for 2020 but 15,107,500 for 2019 which led me to hope that 5m options had lapsed as the number of shares in issue only went up by the 40,000 issued to Mark Hine.
This doesn't equate with the total options shown later as 22,167,499. Of these Roger Goodwin has 2m, Val Brynelsden 900k, Rupert Crowe's estate 900k and Mark Hine 250,000. That leaves 18.1m in management, staff and ex-staff's hands. Are these insiders? In China probably yes even if they've left the company.
I hope you are correct as I'm 55 in March 2023 and would love to have the shares to be 390p (total value of £1m). Why wait, though, if you are Richard Griffiths for the market to value the business when running at 1.5 tonnes + instead of today's undervalued level?
No but that also puts votes into insider hands. I just wonder what the exit route is for the BoD given their ages: new MBI supported by Griffiths, cash takeover by major. Hope it is something - perhaps in 2 years when they are running at 1.5 m tonnes and printing cash. Griffiths, who has put £60m into this business, must have something in mind.
Morning Skopolitis. Have you factored the 22m options into your calcs?
With gold and zinc firm and no known production outages lower smelter charges GFM is minting it. Broker has 180p price on the shares, which is lower than fair value on my models. So I can only assume the MMs are under orders to keep the reported price low to continue to flush out frustrated sellers, mopping the shares up in treasury.
I have not done the calculation, but if they buy all £10m they want into treasury it will be another 5%+ under management control. I believe this, together with management holdings, and the Griffith's stake will give control over more than 50% of voting shares. This is both a takeover protection, and gives control over a friendly merger or public to private deal. Must be some majors licking their lips over GFM as it is an undervalued, debt free and significant resource. Time to buy back the 25% of my holding I sold at c. 150p
I'm with you on this one. Just what does Griffin have to do to maintain decent price rises ?
I am at a loss as to why this has drifted so far south of £2 ?
For some reason I think the p/e should be 8.4 x 2022 earnings but once dividends are at 30-40% of net earnings the yield will be equally important to some investors. I think the company will get incrementally more efficient gradually increasing the throughput and seeking out the highest grades available.
On 35 to 40 (p?) (I have just under 34p for 2022) that suggests my target as 294p to 336p in April 2023.
Don't believe a dividend will be declared with the interims as the licence fees needed to be paid - over $18m - which I believe (hope) partially explains the low level of share buy backs.
conservative estimate of eps of 22p to 25 p for 2021
eps of 35 to 40 for 2022 at present prices. what doe s anyone think the PE ratio should be based on above eps growth
Thanks for that Skop, I agree. My next most profitable holding is SigmaRoc SRC which you might like to look at ? :) Still worth a buy.
I am a bit higher than this - see my post of 14 January. I have seen nothing to change my mind. I think it is all positives for GFM for 2021 and 2022, particularly if zinc and gold hold above $3,000 and $1,800 respectively. Thinking SP of 200p + by end of 2021, and 300p + by late 2022. Confident we will get there with or without a bid.
Hi Skop, my own fag packet minimum forecasts for 21 and 22 PBT are $32m and $38m (1.1m/1.5m tons processed and Dec 20 prices). Should be enough to get to minimum SP of £2 ?
Steady as she goes.
Pretax profits rose to $14.5 million from $11.7 million the year before, due to reduced costs and higher zinc metal prices. This was despite a decline in revenue of 8.3% year-on-year to $75.4 million from $82.3 million, due to lower sales in zinc, gold and silver.
On a more human level I found the tribute to the late Rupert Crowe a poignant reminder of what really matters in business and in life.
BERENBERG RAISES GRIFFIN MINING PRICE TARGET TO 180 (160) PENCE - 'BUY'
Market will be as disappointed as I am that a token dividend wasn't considered for this year on what is a great result (Covid) and with no likely pitfalls going forward.
Still in limbo, still being considered.
Just a heads up as I can't see the results RNS here
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GFM/2020-results/14974827
I am looking forward to the outlook as part of the report. Also cash generation.
I was considering quarterly production. 200k of 2021's 1.1m in Q1. 300k average for Q2-4 so maybe 260k, 300k, 340k which would be a good place to meet the 375k average on 1.5m.
With zinc back above $3,000, gold back above $1,800 and mine production running at 250,000 tonnes per quarter and rising, GFM is minting it. Not especially interested in 2020 numbers, only rolling 12 months and evidence to support my valuation models for 2021 and 2022. At 140p this is so undervalued it is laughable. 200p, 250p and 300p are all reasonable targets by end 2021, mid and end 2022.
Spread back to 8p......ridiculous. 2020 results will be out next week.