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Only my opinion, but I think Griffiths purchase is just an opportunity in a potential growth company, and see no reason why this long listed company would suddenly want to go private - such a move might also be frowned upon by the chinese authorities, who after all can ultimately call the shots, as witnessed by the 8 year licence wait!
I would just like to see a dividend being paid, especially as much of the infrastructure equipment has already been set in place.
Quite a number of lumpy trades this week all the sales being taken over at no discount to the bid price. It would appear something is in the wind particularly as GFM has a reputation of being a somewhat leaky ship. Next week could be interesting.
Thank you Skopolitis. Do you have a gut feeling as to Griffiths' intentions? Or a concert party if that is what it is in effect from your comments?
Griffiths is not technically an insider but nobody builds a 16% position in a thinly traded company with 2 market makers without the agreement and support of the BOD.
Thank you Skopolitis. Interesting - especially you say Griffiths and "other" insiders. Is he an insider?
Thank you. Very interesting
Griffiths with 16% , the director with a short 20% (cant remember his name) and 25% not in public hands the company could easily be taken over. I would hope not too soon as normal shareholders, us, deserve to reap the benefits that should surely come over the next 18 months.
He has been building his position. Together with other insiders they now have, I believe, majority control. This could be a takeover defense, a prelude to a public to private bid, or a way of offering the right buyer control. Given the new licences and the significant increase in the last resource estimate which added 7 years to the life of the mine there is a chance of a bid in 2021.
If I was still MD of an investment bank I would be out talking to a few clients now the major uncertainties are out of the way and given the age of the BOD!
9th richest man in Jersey - this below from the Jersey post - don't know if this is good or bad but he seems more of a genuine value investor than some of the fickle investment houses....(just for info Abramovich is top at £9.3bn, but not that popular by the accompanying feedback comments!)
9. Richard Griffiths, £300m – up £120m
Richard Griffiths is living proof that you don’t have to be a straight-A student to get on in life. He left school at 16 to work on the family’s sheep farm before meeting a greyhound trainer with City clients who would place huge bets on the dogs. He quickly gained an interest in shares, reading newspapers and educating himself in the ways of the market. His first investment – of £1,000 – in 1985 made an impressive £300 profit. He went on to take his stockbroker and investment bank business from a start-up to FTSE 250 member in five years. Today, as a fund manager, he has interests in 26 companies worth £256 million.
I think he is a private strategic investor who has taken an interest in a number of resource and tech stocks. I don't think he is fronting for anyone else or for a fund.
16% is quite a strategic position. Maybe he suspects or hopes to engineer a takeover
I know nothing about Richard Griffiths. Does anybody want to educate me?
Richard Griffiths
More good "bureaucratic" news . ;)
No idea - let's hope it is institutional stake building
Some big trades that could be to do with the granting of options or anything else. A constant stream of buys following. These are the trades:-
15.01.21 11:36:50 112.61 GBX 800,000 900,904.00 Off-Book PRIC LRGS AIMX
15.01.21 11:38:01 112.61 GBX 1,700,000 1,914,421.00 Off-Book PRIC AIMX
15.01.21 11:32:38 112.61 GBX 2,000,000 2,252,260.00 Off-Book - AIMX
15.01.21 11:26:14 112.50 GBX 4,846,263 5,452,045.88 Off-Book - AIMX
Nearly 5million shares traded.whats happening!
The only negative was gold in concentrate dropping 20% on last quarter but that does vary.
Skops forecasts are always dependable so I too am staying and waiting for the market to recognise the value here.
Well done to all the Management for keeping this business in good shape..
I thought the RNS was positive. Good volumes, and better selling prices. I have run my model and come up with H2 2020 EPS of 9.5 c/ share on revenues of $55 million. Projecting forwards assuming Zone 3 mining of 1.1 million tonnes and a 150,000 tonne contribution from Zone 2 in H2 2021 and 400,000 in 2022 I get EPS of 25.7 c in 2021 and 31.0 c in 2022.
Converting to sterling and putting P/E of 10 - 12 gives me fair value ranges of 190p - 220p in 2021 and 230p - 270p in 2022.
So I will not be selling.
With the new licence in their pocket the share price is meant to be going up, not down !
I think more likely to be selling odds to exercise options. No COO would be reducing now the mined volumes are going to double.
When you see value , SELL, simple as , there won't be any Divi here for a long time ,
Prob a good move for him, but next year he may regret it
GLA LTH
Hi Skop. No idea. Can only speculate. Often, I believe, such sales are often related to divorce but can be house purchase for themselves or children or anything else really. I suspect you know more than me really.
Anyone know why the COO is selling stock? He sold 45,000 in December at much lower prices. Probably just tax related, and he obviously cannot sell just before an RNS
Thank you ashikshetty. That implies p/es of 6.5x for 2021 and 4.9x for 2022. This ignores the cash on hand which (or debt) I use to adjust the p/e which will be impacted by the capital spend which is a positive.
uncle bean
yes around 25 cents at the least all things standing equal. In 2022 i expect eps of about 32 -35.
if you look at 82000 mined this year and then extroplate to 1.5 million at the minimum you get a idea of the scale. Just read into ninkov's rns stating gfm will be one of the top zinc producers in china.
look for top zinc producers in china and extrapolate again