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Started: EdAllen, 7 Jun 2024 17:12
Last post: EdAllen, 7 Jun 2024 17:12
Yes I would agree over years they will have more upside. But in a shorter term I suspect we will see minor uos and downs with more downs than ups.
Started: EdAllen, 6 Jun 2024 12:29
Last post: Chrisdp86, 7 Jun 2024 15:36
Depends over which time frame you define the trend I guess. Also depends on the time frame of your personal investment.
If your time frame is another 2-3 years the trend is certainly on the way up ?
I think we all know the trend is downward. The same scenarion as last peak 3 years ago. Speculation of a dividend which did not come. This time Wall Steet was pumping these shares at an estimated fair value of 2.78 and potential good results all added with hope of a dividend pushed them to a peak again. So now what? People are taking profit while they can and so the decline sets in. There will be no stability in share price until Griffin realises they need to pay a dividend. Taking 10 million spare cash to put in a share buy back scheme was kicking sand in shareholders faces. Be realistic how will 10 million on their capitalisation do much for the share price.? What are they really trying to do? Buy out all the small public shareholders. Perhaps are it a private company with a few major shareholders..? It does not really matter what the share price is. They are and will be making huge profits with no debt. They are not shareholder orientated. I sold my large holding and can buy back on the next low probably.
Started: gimla, 5 Jun 2024 13:29
Last post: Chrisdp86, 5 Jun 2024 21:27
It’s not up to panmure to pull back as they’re buying under an irrevocable agreement funded by griffin mining.
Just a few weeks ago in the results the chairman confirmed that the share purchases will continue.
Panmure are also repping the company so also are advised to acquire shares at the best price possible surely
Someone on ADVFN reckons Panmure have stopped buying back, doesn't justify his statement though. Price had been recovering at endof day upuntil now, so you've got to wonder howmuch support was on offer. It Doesn't make sense to suddenly pull the rug away. Maybe some news in the offing? or maybe tjey reckon it'll start supporting itself?
Hoping the company continue to buy and stabilise the price the cancel the shares.
It sure where else to reinvest the cash so just going to hold like the usual fool I am !
Yes in the same boat -Had left my profits in as I had a good run from £1 to £1.45 but now sold profits as I don't want to lose what I made
Me too.just sold two thirds of holding.left the rest in isa.I watched them fall years ago and done nothing.not this time.I've banked a profit
Started: EdAllen, 5 Jun 2024 12:41
Last post: EdAllen, 5 Jun 2024 12:41
The usual roller coaster with these shares now seems on the sharp decline. Time for me to bail out for now.
Started: justwaiting, 5 Jun 2024 11:40
Last post: justwaiting, 5 Jun 2024 11:40
Will they ever go up and stay up ?
Started: Silverfoil13, 21 May 2024 17:04
Last post: Sedco, 2 Jun 2024 07:21
Is Chinese Dragon still around to save us ?
Gold in itself has never been enough to sustain gfm. Company went the same way as all miners back 2010/11. The Chines government was previously a shareholder but sold out some time ago. We're up in the ether now, and geopolitics hasn't been such a strong player in many years. Not a time for rose tinted glasses.
Surely if China does turn into a black hole then gold price will increase further and profits of griffin.
I think the major issue as it always has been is the geopolitical risk of operating in China.. I’ve held for 7/8 years now and always been worried about a nationalisation of mining if the war with the west gets too intense.
I can really see the exit for us shareholders being a Chinese major buying the mines or griffin as a company.
159.5 was hit on 1/5/2018. We're now into blue sky territory. Commodities are high, but the major cloud in the panorama is the Chinese economy. It's no longer the global powerhouse it was, and the Chinese government are desperately trying to prop it up. The biggest danger is it turns into a black hole, as it has done before, and drags everything down. I'm hanging on whatever.
Let’s hope that sets light to the fuse on a rocket !
Started: maddogmcree, 15 May 2024 11:30
Last post: Kaypea, 21 May 2024 21:50
Can we send written questions?
Cheers.
Anyone up for flying to Bermuda for the AGM? LMFAO!
Chris
Just for info (ifs and ands and all that):-
IF the average zinc price received in 2023 had matched 2022, GFM would have received $65.2m additional revenue with little increase in costs. The comparison was $1,931 v $2,513. With the reduction in smelting charges this equates to a current spot price of c. $3,090 giving GFM c. $2,300. That's c.$360,000 additional cash and profit each and every week zinc is at this price v 2023. That is a serious amount of cash.
PS. I'm still furious no dividend was declared.
So in reality, turnover and profits will be substantially higher 2024 given current price of gold and zinc.
New increase JORC coming in 2024.
Share buy backs ongoing leading to eventual cancellation of shares
Zone 2 online in 2025
Lots of be holding for
Rns 26/01/21
Substantially Increased Zone II Resource at Recently Granted Mining Licence Area
107% Increase in the Mineral Resource at Just Zone II
$7.1 Billion Metal in Situ in Just Zone II
Started: cd27idw, 21 May 2024 12:40
Last post: maddogmcree, 21 May 2024 16:44
I too think it has further to go though i have taken a little profit
Hitting new 12 mth high today. It's got to power through soon. I'm not selling soon though.
Started: cd27idw, 15 May 2024 07:16
Last post: maddogmcree, 15 May 2024 11:26
Actually good point Uncle B, and I don’t know the answer but gonna go do a bit of research will post if I find anything
Yep. The price of zinc and gold will mean increased profits just by standing still.
I did used to know but have completely forgotten. Is zone II more concentrated in metals? This is important as the processing facility is the constriction. If 1,500,000 being processed is the limit then revenue can only be increased by greater concentrations. Costs will be reduced for the first several years minings from zone II. I can see a second processing facility being constructed. That would be transformational.
Uncle B - The PE will drop in 7 months when we starting operating Zone 2 still on schedule for Quarter 1 2025 increased revenue and yes just maybe the start of dividend payments - I am allowed to dream
The Zinc price will hold the share price up by no dividends means a drift I think. Deduct cash and GFM is trading on a p/e of 21.5x. Based on the political risks I've always thought 8.5x to be appropriate. A 10c dividend would IMO have pushed the price to 200p+.
I'm a seller. Yesterday I would have been a buyer if I wasn't massively overweight already.
I personally am more than happy with GFM's performance over the last 12 months. Yes no dividend but up from low of 80p to £1.50. If they could replicate that again who needs dividends. Just my thoughts.
Started: Roxi, 15 May 2024 07:15
Last post: UncleBean, 15 May 2024 07:25
I'm fuming. Totally fuming. No reason given.
Ah well i suppose the Directors ae happy picking up nice salaries,
Started: cd27idw, 10 May 2024 19:16
Last post: UncleBean, 14 May 2024 16:02
The 2023 Annual Accounts should be published imminently. I'm sure Zone II will be addressed in that.
Does anyone have any idea when we might start seeing some ORE mined form Zone 2 ?????. It's been in development for a further year since I invested
As I reckon GFM currently has more than $63m in cash on deposit I’m thinking 160p will be passed for good when they say how 70% of that will be distributed. Yes, the zinc price has traded 40% higher than now but it is at a level that throws off cash for fun.
Bounced off 157p twice. Very worrying sign for any other share. Problem is, a good set of results hasn't brought any longstanding change about in the past. Taking on a broker to buy back the shares has obviously been a positive move. Maybe it'll have a similar effect come the next results. Dare to dream? I always did...
Started: merlin1967ron, 9 May 2024 14:58
Last post: Chrisdp86, 9 May 2024 20:19
Anyone else amazed that a wealthy Chinese conglomerate hasn’t snapped this up yet?
As the company has enough cash to buy at least 12% of the current shares in issue they’ll have to find other ways to utilise the cash - or I suspect the PRC will do it for them.
Fact is the company are committed to purchasing shares and an orderly market so this will just set a new “base” for the share to move on up. Panmure probably bought another chunk today and will be announced tomorrow.
Ultimately, the shares in treasury will also be cancelled too which will support the share price
Who cares but that is the most likely explanation. I was tempted to take some profit but resisted. I expect results and a dividend announcement in the next fortnight. Chances are the price will be 170p+ before 31st July IMO.
Taken another drop of profit off the table, placed into other Stock in PF
Started: Sampson, 3 May 2024 07:35
Last post: UncleBean, 7 May 2024 09:45
Yes. The Board have regularly referenced the ability to get funds out of China. There was a RNS on 29th November 2023:-
Griffin Mining Ltd ("the "Company" with its subsidiaries "the Group") is pleased to announce that on 24th November 2023, it received into the Group's bank accounts outside of China, a further dividend from its operating Chinese subsidiary, Hebei Hua Ao Mining Industry Company Limited, in the amount of Renminbi75 million (US$10.5 million) less PRC withholding tax of 5%. The net funds were received in the normal course of business and in normal electronic wire transfer times.
Are the company allowed to distribute dividend and pay the money outside of China?
I agree that the share buyback is encouraging. For me this is because it must mean that plenty of cash is outside of China, there is no bad news on the horizon and the huge cash accumulation is continuing. Is that your reasoning too?
I'm thinking that a 3p - 5p dividend will be declared in the results in a week or two.
Very encouraging to see this aggressive share but back program. Everything looking good here. Just add a divi. And this will fly. Divi needed big time. Even a minor one will support the SP.
Last post: sparkyA1, 3 May 2024 13:48
I bought way back at about 126p but I need to make up for lost interest, so yes I could sell now but I 'd like a bit more considering the slow progress.
Have you got a lot of shares or bought at the very top 3 years ago? Otherwise why is it difficult getting your money back?
I been with this one for a long time and I just want to get my money back
Started: cd27idw, 2 May 2024 12:31
Last post: UncleBean, 2 May 2024 14:40
You wait. 2023 results could be out in the next 2 weeks. No unexpected costs. No bonuses. No options granted. Zone II even better than expected. Exploration area extension granted. Chairman says "We have too much cash so going to distribute 15p in dividends." Share price will be well over 160p.
OK. That's my very poor attempt at having a laugh.
Appears to be 160p, the all time high. keeps pulling up short. Are the market makers having a laugh?
TY, I did miss that.
Hi Kaypea. I understand your thinking but I think you missed this RNS on 5th January:-
Today, Griffin announces that it has entered into trades committing to purchase, through its joint broker Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG, 8,886,128 of the Company's own ordinary shares ("Ordinary Shares"), representing 4.6% of the Company's issued share capital (excluding shares already held in treasury), at a price of 88 pence per Ordinary Share, for a total consideration of £7,819,792, excluding brokers fees, (the "Transaction"). On settlement of these trades the Ordinary Shares purchased will be held in treasury for the time being.
These transactions seem to have transformed the investment outlook for institutional investors who now seem to be gradually coming on board. Buying these shares now would cost almost £7m more than it did then.
Not long ago the sp was near 80p, yet there was no buyback. Today the RNS informs of a buyback at 152p. Why now, and what is the point of buying just 20000. Probably the excuse that will be fielded to avoid a dividend, again.
History would suggest that's a good idea. Especially with zinc and gold tanking today. I'm gambling that a dividend will be declared (history suggests no dividends declared) with the results in 2 weeks time.
Some profit off the table, its been a long slog to get to £1.55
Started: ParanoiaBlue, 26 Apr 2024 13:01
Last post: Silverfoil13, 26 Apr 2024 16:44
I’m with you Paranoia .. I originally bought at 7p and sold some when it last touched £1.50 and the cursed when it dropped right back down again but decided if it ever got back to £1.50 I would sell. Trouble is now I feel GFM is much stronger than when it last hit £1.50 so I’m going to hang on a while; I think I’ll use stop loss this time and sell if I see a 10% drop.
I can see many more reasons to buy than sell. Hence I'll hold. Unless the price of zinc tanks I'm hoping not to sell before 240p.
Well, above where I bailed out the last time. But I think I’m going to hold on longer this time ;)
Started: EdAllen, 19 Apr 2024 10:39
Last post: UncleBean, 22 Apr 2024 12:56
At 30th June 2023 GFM had almost $47m in cash. Admittedly net current assets was just under $21m. After nearly 10 months of trading and buying 9m shares at 88p (!) the numbers are probably c.$63m and $37m. Cash is a very significant proportion of the c.£260m market cap. What would the declaration of a 10c dividend do to the share price???
Wealth warning. Whenever I speculate on a dividend boosting the share price it is ruled out and the price falls.
We … AND the company know that the share price deserves to be far higher than it is. Zone 2 not even in the numbers yet and profits are due to be exceptional this year with the price of gold now at over $2300.
UK shares just are not loved enough and there is still this anti China rhetoric I feel.
I’m very surprised a big Chinese major hasn’t taken the company out when it was so very cheap
Wall Street posted an article yesterday showing their reasoning why the Fair Value worked out at 278p ! We can be optimistic that in the longer run their is much more upside perhaps.
Started: DimitryReacts, 12 Apr 2024 09:12
Last post: NoelShempsky, 16 Apr 2024 07:52
I wish I'd seen this yesterday - Clive Maund is pretty good with his forecasts -
"Gold Market Update - it's CORRECTION TIME...
originally published Sunday, April 14, 2024
https://www.clivemaund.com/gmu.php?art_id=68&date=2024-04-14
After falling today, in the evening things changed and the prices of gold and silver shot up. Good day tomorrow,
Hi Wheelie
It was 7p in late 2002. I remember it quite well because it was just after I married and my wife and I both set up equal portfolios of shares. Over the years her shares have generally done better than mine but GFM has been one of my successes thankfully!
I've also been in since about 1998(115p)but I don't remember the price ever being 7p.
I don't know about 7p but my records say I bought my first GFM shares on 3rd October 2008. This sounds wrong as I was first put into GFM by a neighbour I haven't seen since 2001. I think 1998 is more likely.
Up until 2018 I traded in and out well. In 2020 I bought several tranches more totalling 85,632 shares at prices between 36.7p and 90.18p.
2021 was a disaster for me as I got sucked in to buy more at 113p, 108.65p and 130.38p.
Currently I hold 264,203 shares at an average purchase price of 59.71p. 135.41p = £200,000 profit
Interestingly (to me) GFM was 140/145p on 11/2/21 when 3 month zinc was 2792.9 which is currently 2794.6. There was a lot of excitement at the time but the mine has massively progressed since then.
With institutional investors catching on, the big holders reducing their blocking holdings 300p is definitely possible IMO.
Held this for years. See massive upside here.
Moooooooooooooooo
Started: Sampson, 12 Apr 2024 20:29
Last post: Sampson, 12 Apr 2024 20:29
It will never get sold !
Started: CityWatcher, 20 Mar 2024 11:28
Last post: Chrisdp86, 11 Apr 2024 22:09
Hi.
Do we know when zone 2/3 numbers will start feeding into the production or have they already started?
Some one said if this was in US would be worth 700m I think well over a Billion given some of PE multiples over the pond!
Bonuses all round then. But there will be yet another excuse to hold on the dividend.
2024 it promises to be good. The mines have been in full operation. Plenty of wealth in Griffin Mining now.
Last post: NoelShempsky, 11 Apr 2024 21:18
Gold on the up this evening - will GFM react tomorrow? It should.
If this was in USA it’d be worth over £700m, probably over £900m.
Realistically a few consistent dividends (7p + a year announced soon and again in a year) would get us to 240p IMO
233 mill. Seems quite cheap considering….
Could this not be worth double this 450mill ……?
I don’t see why not in years to come.
Started: Sampson, 10 Apr 2024 18:25
Last post: Sampson, 10 Apr 2024 18:25
Would like to see 150-155pence….. was there afew years back. Could we push for all time highs …. GLA.
Let the griffin fly. Fly my pretty.