Member Info for Ketteringlad

50p will be passed all the way down to 20p - 30p in that scenario IMO. The IMF will impose swingeing spending cuts.

I agree with all you have written.

I would adjust down the p/e by the $42m cash.

As Capex for Zone II is greater in scope than zone III from 2027 cash generation should hugely beat reported profit.

The increase in PM prices does make 2025 understated v 2026 to date. 1.5m tonnes at current prices would have been $184m. And then there is currently a greater proportion of gold from Zone III.

But it’s always jam tomorrow.

And the lack of dividend might be tax efficient for the company but I want dividends into my ISA and SIPP. Imagine what a 7c + dividend increasing every year would do to the share price, opening the share to different investors.

It could be.

My Noddy maths has always supported a much higher share price which has yet to materialise.

Current PM and zinc prices suggest GFM is earning c $1.1m more each week v 2025 based on average production.

But 2025 production was 1.1m tonnes and the company expects to return to 1.5m production shortly.

And we know that current throughput is more gold specific.

I coincidentally started working with a GFM shareholder and had a meeting booked with him yesterday. He initially (8 or more years ago) expected the price to reach 400p. Now he says he won’t be selling any of the 700,000 + he controls below 500p. I hold over 200,000 so 500p would be magical. I have marital pressure to sell some at 350p!

The caveat is that it is always jam tomorrow with GFM and yesterday’s statement slammed the door on any dividends whilst the current board are in place.

IMO a sale and leaseback is an appalling way to proceed. A permanent and increasing reduction in profit.

Any comments on today’s RNS?

Seems to me to be the last piece of the golden jigsaw.

Can anyone help me to interpret the zone III RNS in February please?

I’m seeing 5 - 10% of annual equivalent 750,000 tonnes being mined from Zone III. Which is gold only. Various levels of concentration and presumably areas with little or no gold will need to be mined to get to gold areas?

How much gold should we think is there?

Are we mining a small %age for efficiency or because we need to feed the smelters we supply with zinc?

My Noddy maths adds up somewhere between $650,000 and $1.3m in revenue each week from zone III on half production. This can’t be right as the SP would be north of 380p with gold at $4,700 +.

So why does he have no common sense, financial acumen or understanding of industrial companies?

Just had that conversation with my wife. We’ve sold our original stake (£134,000) in the last 6 weeks.

Hi. If I knew the price of any share in the future……….

I don’t think there will be any settling in the GFM Share price whilst precious metal prices are fluctuating as they are.

Two years ago with zinc at $3,365, gold at $2,000 and silver at €18 I’d have been happy with 140p.

I always thought 350p to 400p would come when Zone II had a full year of operation.

So……. With zone II operating soon and gold above €5,000 and silver above $83 anything is possible.

GFM has shot us in the foot by stopping quarterly production figures (they nearly always have to amend an error though). Uncertainty about Chinese operations will always weigh on the SP.

FWIW ( I am much more likely to be wrong than right) everything else remaining constant (China politically mostly) I would expect gold and silver to rise further, GFM to finally declare a dividend, the USD to weaken, the € to weaken but the GBP to weaken significantly more.

IF that happens GFM costs in local currency go up but revenue in GBP terms go up massively.

I think GFM will have $60m at least on deposit now and over $120m in a year’s time which needs deducting from the market cap. I haven’t got my estimate for 2026 profit in front of me but I think it was 65c. I reckon a p/e of 8 reflects the China risk so that got me to about 470p in May 2027 I think.

Gold at $5,700 and silver north of $95 would imply over 530p.

Loads of caveats. Gold is just as likely to be $7,000 as $5,750 but probably more likely to be below $3,000.

China invading Taiwan and GFM will be 70p ish.

If I didn’t have so many I would be filling my boots.

Anybody willing to try to explain why there was suddenly a flurry of trades from 13:43 onwards yet few trades before. Apart from USA waking up or someone knowing something to be announced on Monday it seems an odd time to start trading?

I know all GFM RNS announcements aren’t at 07:00 but if there is an announcement today I wish they would deliver it.

I got my ticket yesterday. Valentine’s night Liverpool v Brighton (son is Liverpool ) and Blues v Leeds on the Sunday. I know how to make my wife happy!!!!!

The Board are pathetic. If the mine is as described Millibrain could have got financing.

If the mine and proposed bond are as described I’d put in £400,000 plus and I bet a lot of PI’s would too.

Oh yes. Although I’m away for a week going to 2 Leeds and 2 Liverpool games and seeing my mum.

Semi retirement isn’t cheap!

I think this rise has more to do with zinc, gold and silver prices rising. Due to gearing I believe the GFM rise is under done.

Despite this, yes, I’ve taken some profit yesterday and today. A happy wife etc.

Brilliant. Thank you. We get different types of messages so hopefully plenty of good news and prospects. The last quarter tonnage won’t be great but revenue will be off the scale.

They were already directing efforts to the highest concentration of gold and silver. I would expect this accelerated.

Hopefully they’ll say production is back to full speed.

How high are you thinking we will fly?

What results are to be announced?

As an Accountant I like to do a forecast for shares such as GFM that I know well. They have never done me any good - although I didn’t sell any so I suppose they did.

At current production of 1.5m tonnes a year and at current metal prices I get c. 45p (not c) eps. I’ve always thought a p/e of 8 is reasonable so got to a SP of 359p. I then like to add cash or deduct non property borrowings. Cash balance at 31/12/26 could be anything after Zone II Capex but I reckon a minimum of 15p per share. Could easily be 35p at these prices.

So.

Perfect delivery. No drop in PM prices. No political negatives and I expect a SP of 374p + with the results in May 2027.

A divided of 8c in May 2026 would open the share to a new category of institutional investors and turbo the SP IMO.

Usual caveats - especially that I have never been correct before.

My Noddy maths has convinced me to hold for 350p (half) and 400p (other half).

Good luck to all.

I can’t comment on charting. Looks like a few people taking profits and I don’t blame them.

The next news is most likely to be positive - full production restarted, Zone II extraction started, current trading statement, further political tensions increasing the gold and silver prices further etc.

There is though the potential for negatives. PRC continuing to restrict metal production and exports, invading Taiwan, gold and silver prices fall etc.

If all the positives happen we’ll have 350p in 2026???

If all the negatives happen well could have sub 150p????

Having held for 18 years I am not going to guess where we go next. I believe GFM is a great proxy for PM prices - up and down!!!!!

You’ve nailed my thoughts exactly Sageman. And oddly bought my first shares in GFM in 2007 at 27p. I then loaded up in the 42 - 56p range in Covid.

I’ve always thought 360 - 400p is possible but am constantly worried about the PRC taking control for 36-40p.

I’m still flabbergasted by the rise in prices the price of silver, and gold in 2025. Even at reduced production GFM must be generating huge amounts of cash.