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We get hammered and gkp doesn't, makes complete sense as usual, no real significant upside when o.p strong and significant downside when o.p is weak... Of course
Gkp'ers now suffering proportionally but still, these are the days we should recover some o.p ratio imvho, rarely have we outperformed on the way up (from memory), cue boyo with his comparison to put me back in my box...
When was the last time G posted some proper good news? You know, something we have achieved outlrselves that really moves the business on. Yeah, there have been major global headwinds of late so survival was and still is paramount, but nothing I can remember in the last couple of years, and I'm still here waiting... What a plonker eh
Shocking day, the damage to o.p was, to a certain extent, done overnight but, I don't see how we finished so badly when o.p on the day was only down half a %, it was down more this morning when we were higher. Shambles, no consistency, us and DNO hit for more than 4% is nuts
If today is anything to go by, tomorrow isn't looking much better for op, another 1.5% down after UK Markets closed. Fingers crossed it recovers a bit tonight... Not very confident
Yes bunks - disappointing times across the sector and market as a whole but G coming off worst amongst the usual bunch since last Friday: https://invst.ly/vfy3q
G is plainly not enjoying market confidence since May 18th and remains 30p (16%) below parity with others like DNO or GKP and 25p (14%) down compared to RDS, with no sign of that gap closing. I don’t think today made matters much worse but things certainly haven’t improved.
On OP, I do have to remind myself that $65 average for the year was deemed above expectations at one time, that we are seeing prices at 2018 levels - better than 2019 - and that, despite the recent stumble,Brent is still within the upward trend - so may have further to go. Even if it levels off, G should be doing better than the current sp suggests: https://invst.ly/vfyze .
We are getting smoked by pretty much everyone.
Smoked = down less yesterday and up more today btw.
Smoked = down more yesterday and up less today lol
Can't think of a word I described, the opposite of getting smoked, I digress. GLA - let's hope op holds up and we get some good news soon eh
DNO are arguably being smoked more than G - since the end of May that is:
https://invst.ly/vg3w3
All three on a downward path, but G had suffered the biggest hit in May (not shown here).
It seems set to get worse before it gets better.
Since 2019, you’d be hard pressed to choose between G, DNO and GKP.
G has generally had more time in the sun and suffered fewer troughs:
https://invst.ly/vg42a
They all took a massive slide from March 15th:
https://invst.ly/vg44-
G then saw a big advance over the other two - worth about 20p - prior to May 13th at which point that 20p gain plus another 5 or 10p got wiped away.
Given where OP is, they are all doing sh*t - but so is ‘gold standard’ Chevron, which is not much further ahead of them:
https://invst.ly/vg49g
I'm seriously considering lowering my exit price
Not been watching Genel as much lately but it’s been pretty poorly lately tbf. Normally holds up better than this. Looks like sentiment taken a hit and since that board salary resolution stuff and high kick back from it things have been a bit stale
Glad you're confident in the meantime we're getting hammered
Hi bunks hope you and boyo are well. A lot of things are taking a bath at the moment not just here. Summer volume- some small caps getting smoked
Nice little recovery and then another horrible ut... 144.8p
Yeah - I think you can blame Brent's usefully timed $1.5 dive in the afternoon for that!
Yeah but going into the closing auction around 147p you don't expect to finish 144p, that's all about us and our apparent weakness
One of the possible explanation (on top of the obvious problem of not getting paid) is that Tawke production has started declining about 2 years ago. The payment issue has been a bit if a smoke screen for it but I would not be surprised if one if the main factor is this.
It would explain why DNO is getting hammered.
This reinforces the importance of getting success with the new fields.
At the moment, tawke is still producing a very substantial amount. If this was to decline rapidly (fir whatever reason??) Then the incentive if the KRG to pay us back would be fairly small.
In contrast, Saikan us producing a lower grade if oil but there is plenty if it and growing. This is how I read it.
Genel has been about project and promises fir years but they have delivered very little, if anything. As a consequence it remains (always has been) a bit of a roll of dice fir a new investor .... no new investors, production under pressure, payment problems = no support for the share price.
As always it could change overnight ... but so far it hasn't.
I am still hopeful it might turn around but I am not holding my breath.
Have a good weekend!
Enjoy the sunshine and don't read about shares!
ATB all.
Agreed Bunks. Unfortunately.
Yes bunks, I agree too. Although all companies seem to be failing to see a rebound in sp that 's proportionate to the strength of OP.
If it helps at all, here are some notes to put G's recent price action in context. I think it’s worth noting that G has tracked GKP and Brent perfectly well since the end of May and has actually outperformed DNO and Chevron over the same period: https://invst.ly/vgia9
As we all know, G’s sp suffered a setback between the 12th and 28th of May but the gap between G and the others that opened up has not worsened since then, indeed it seems to have improved slightly. Looking at the same group since 11th Feb, https://invst.ly/vgii2 the divergence between G and the others is easy to spot. At the worst point, G was effectively 33p down against CVX (measured against G’s price scale) but by last Friday’s close the difference had reduced to 20p.
A long-term view of the four, going back to pre-pandemic December 2019, shows that G has outperformed the others for much of the time but is now back within the group:
https://invst.ly/vgiq8
It’s not as exciting as we’d like but at least G’s performance isn’t totally off-track and should improve significantly as Sarta production increases and if QD proves successful.
I was actually agreeing with Tartine's comments - but most of us seem to have similar thoughts...
Like Hamilton gaining a couple of seconds per lap on Leclerc yesterday, maybe we’ll see a similar trend with G v the noisy neighbours and others over the next few weeks. Today’s weakness following the OPEC+ news at the weekend was to be expected but some people are still very bullish regarding OP - like this Citigroup fella:
'The market is very tight and a supply increase of 400,000 barrels a day will turn out to be a pittance....... Demand is significantly higher, despite the Covid-19 pandemic exploding in parts of the world, and oil prices are likely to climb much further by the time summer is over'
https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/heres-what-citigroup-to-goldman-say-about-the-opec-oil-deal-2419065
Time will tell Boyo - 138p is very harsh considering where we finished last week, DNO doing better so far and GKP fractionally worse. No surprise but the frustration kicks in when things recover and we don't. So much for Freedom day.
Yeah. The whole market in retreat - so harsh on most this morning. G not particularly hard hit by comparison to, say, BP, DNO or GKP. Be interesting when the US opens...
Like you I want to see us recover some ground down here, in comparison to our peers and o.p ratio, not looking likely at the moment, DNO is down around half of G, 2 and 4% respectively. Lets hope the yanks give everyone a lift.