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Tell you what, just buy Apple, amazon, FB or any other overpriced American rubbish stocks. We would be celebrating if Genel ever goes up 10%, these go up 10% every months. Goes to show what a waste of time this share, oil and wider uk market is. Genel and the KRG seem to be doing everything they can to prove the company is un investable rather than capitalising. Who is responsible, management for doing nothing whatsoever to grow the share price despite the ability to, or the KRG for pulling the strings? Doesn’t matter I suppose
Regarding RDS - it may not be time to switch just yet as it may have further to go and G seems to be holding up:
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stockbeat-shell-hits-the-buyback-brakes-after-big-shale-writedown-2041252
From a psychological pov, I much prefer to see G climbing on the back of a firm OP and regular payments (with no doubts and shenanigans) than to see it suspended in mid air as the OP falls away. It strikes me that it is defying gravity at present.
OP drops more, Down down 187 pips and Genel pops up from -2.9 to -2.2.
Strange in'it!
Timeframe is important Jack. From yesterday's market close Brent is down $1.5, G is down 2.3p
Aaah Dr Doom is back.
Genel is behaving exactly as it should given oil prices. In fact it’s been behaving better than it should....
It’s a time of patience as alway and dividend collection......
All is good. Buy whilst it cheap......
Hawkey
So do you remember how G surged ahead of the others from Oct 10th onwards and then apparently slumped? I thought it would be useful to revisit that particular chart up to today:
https://invst.ly/pr22k
Interesting isn’t it?
G still on top. Why?
G:Brent today = 3.4x (the max in two years is about 3.8x, 3.4x is robust)
GKP and DNO buying-back meanwhile but seeing no real benefit in relative terms.
RDS and Chevron both having a dreadful time. Chevron with biggest loss in a decade:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Jim-Cramer-Fossil-Fuels-Are-Done.html
G holding up well on the long-term comparison from peak OP $86: https://invst.ly/pr2fp
I'm not sure why it is but I'm certainly not complaining.
Five days comparison: G v GKP/DNO/RDSb/Chevron and, of course, Brent
https://invst.ly/ps5h1
The main takeaways are that the three KRI companies started to move ahead of the pack on Tuesday for no obvious reason - certainly not OP at that point - and that G powered further early today, even as DNO and GKP were falling back with OP. G eventually succumbed to the weaker OP later in the day but has remained ahead of the others, because of the boost apparently provided by today’s two RNS.
Unfortunately G still hasn’t conquered the resistance at 193, red here: https://invst.ly/ps60t so it remains vulnerable to falling back if OP softens.
Nevertheless- a stunning three days.
Thanks boyo - that chart speaks volumes.
OPEC expects Russia to respond in days, rather than weeks, to a production-cut proposal as the cartel confronts a price rout triggered by the collapse in petroleum demand from China, according to a delegate...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-06/opec-expects-russia-to-respond-in-days-to-oil-output-cut-plan-k6bjugtk
Well done bunks for last week. 194 was nice but did seem too good to last in the present climate.
After a day in the sunshine on Thursday - catching up with GKP and DNO which had leapt ahead on Tuesday/Wednesday - G came back down to earth: https://invst.ly/pt0ks , still marginally up on the week despite OP on the edge of further falls.
As I’ve mentioned before, since the latter half of 2015 Brent has spent a good proportion of the time within or above the shaded trend lines here: https://invst.ly/ps-vh ,
spending only around 3 out of over 50 months below that area. However, it is now teetering on the brink of falling below it, https://invst.ly/ps-w7 , in which case $50 becomes the next likely support, with $44 representing the next level below that.
News and OPEC+ ‘talk’ (as opposed to action) sometimes briefly interrupts a downward path but ultimately the price will move according to the reality of supply and demand. So, with most indicators pointing to plentiful supply for the level of demand, there is little reason to suppose that OP is about to tick upwards and it seems that downward pressure will persist for the time being.
Brent may still be within a $1 of the red trend but it's now wishful thinking to believe it hasn't abandoned it as it is pressed flat to the pink $53.8 (LCO) ($54.2 OANDA?) support line :
https://invst.ly/ptbsd
I can't see it holding myself.
.... and finally letting go. Next stop the Dec 2018 low of $50.4 (LCO) ?
https://invst.ly/ptf9t
Yes, Leem, I agree with you.
Just as G seems to be on the verge of genuine possibilities, external events seem stacked against it.
2020 does not look likely to be a good year in terms of OP. Coronavirus will hopefully be brought under control and markets will normalise, although the year's average price may suffer as inventories will have risen..
There could be some resulting business fatalities in the US Shale patch, indirectly resulting from the virus, unless prices recover quickly.
Having fallen below a couple of key trend and support levels, OP seems to have recovered and is back within the ‘normal’ limits established by those lines. Whether that lasts remains to be seen - here’s the current picture, complete with a speculative pair of blue trend lines based on OP’s previous characteristic rising trend. Don’t get too excited, however, because at that rate OP would, at best, only reach $63 by May.
https://invst.ly/puz5i
G’s sp has absorbed much of the recent fall in OP from $60 and may consequently be fail to react immediately if OP continues to recover. The ratio of G:OP reached about 3.47x at one point but is now back to around 3.2x . For that reason an sp of 190 looks optimistic until OP gets near to $60 (LCO).
More payments are due from the KRG, of course, and once these are fully back on track it may inject some life into the sp.
Thanks for the FC congratulations for last week though, as ever, predicting the lowest of low prices is the bitterest of bitter-sweet successes, especially as OP had been rallying strongly for four days - somewhat faster than its characteristic rate (the blue trend here):
https://invst.ly/pvaph
G is not alone amongst the oil co’s in falling back whilst OP has strengthened, the G:Brent ratio falling back to just 3.14x on Friday after peaking at more than 3.4x just a couple of days earlier.
So guessing next week’s FC price is as difficult as ever because even if OP continues upwards there’s no guarantee that G will follow at its recent ratio to OP. My most optimistic guess for OP next week is $59 and I suspect that G will linger in the 180’s, hence my 188 punt (just under 3.2x) .
Let's hope for payment news and something of a rally as we head towards the FY results and report in March.
This could turn out to be the fifth straight day of OP gains. The growth being a bit greater than characteristic (blue trend channel) rather than spectacular. At this price previously, on 30/1, G was around 187.
https://invst.ly/pvnwh
Brent had seen six days of increases in price up to yesterday and is $1 up since yesterday's LSE close.
https://invst.ly/pwgit
So with OP at nominally $59 and G in the 175 to 180 zone, we are back to October as far as G sp v the price of oil is concerned, as arrow marked here: https://invst.ly/pwlpn
175 obviously represents the most recent support level with the latest low pushing the lowest blue trend line downwards a touch (and all its parallels likewise). Nevertheless, the trend has remained solid - requiring a tweak but withstanding significant pressure as OP fell to near $53.
Brent continues to firm up: https://invst.ly/pwm0g - until the EIA weekly report in an hour or so….
Well quite a change since my last post in this particular thread.
Ordinarily 166, down on the trend line and with no fundamentals change in G would represent a buy point . But this is different - the market is in retreat and so is OP, so there's a greater chance of further falls. G has also fallen below that orange wedge line, which isn't a recommendation to leap in.
https://invst.ly/pya5s
Here's a reminder of how far back that wedge goes: https://invst.ly/pya7m
G is, however, holding at 3x - which is significantly better than the 2.6x to 2.7x we've seen in the last twelve months.
I was tempted to buy today but prudence ruled. I'm also still unhappy about the payments (sorry Hawkey but here we are near the end of the month with two payments outstanding again). Next month is the end of Q1, so I hope this gets put to bed before April fool's day.
I concur with Hasiba's comments regarding the OP pressure on US Shale - I reckon OPEC+ might just let them sweat a bit more and may not cut that deeply or quickly.
It is worth noting, for those who think G's performance is poor, that it has generally been respectable given market circumstances. Here's the usual 'hourly' comparison with Brent since October:
https://invst.ly/pyh04
In this comparison G has remained on a par with Chevron overall, though often ahead of it, and is about 5% down in line with Brent. DNO is markedly down (around 45%) whilst GKP and RDS are both down about 20% - not forgetting that GKP has continued buybacks throughout the period from the 10th December to today.
Boyo- fundamentals have to be considered and you could argue this has better fundamentals than most (subjective of course). Are you still trading this or holding?
Also now past the 52 week low so 160 support roughly? Then not sure what next. How this is considered progress when they are up to their eyeballs in cash and going backwards in share price I have no idea. Assets sat doing nothing, just like the BOD it appears down the boozer
100% agree. If anybody is left and has the patience I know so many have been waiting for news for so long. With the right news this could move and I’ve said that for a while, but come on Genel get on with it
im sure the charts are right but whenever i look we're getting beaten up by just about everyone else:
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited - GKP 168.80 GBX -0.40 (0.24%)
Tullow Oil plc TLW 38.05 GBX +2.05 (5.69%)
Genel Energy PLC GENL 163.20 GBX -2.60 (1.57%)
Premier Oil PLC PMO 94.08 GBX -0.92 (0.97%)
Enquest Plc ENQ 22.75 GBX +0.23 (1.02%)
UK Oil & Gas PLC UKOG 0.63 GBX +0.0049 (0.78%)
Hurricane Energy PLC HUR 15.21 GBX +0.40 (2.69%)
Sound Energy PLC SOU 1.48 GBX -0.018 (1.20%)
Royal Dutch Shell Plc Class B RDSB 1,807.20 GBX -14.80 (0.81%)
BP plc BP 436.20 GBX -2.05 (0.47%)