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Genel struggling a bit to get over the minor trend line (pale blue) today at around 192.
https://invst.ly/pj89n
This last presented a problem in the lead up to ex-div and the unfortunately timed RNS announcing the payment issue. So we are effectively back to the same place. Last time G looked set to continue through towards 200 and beyond but market confidence seems to have been badly dented - not just in G but oil co's generally. Yesterday's numbers were fine, it's market sentiment that seems to be holding G down now. 195p at the current OP is very mediocre for G with 227 achievable historically.
Swimming against the tide today. Full marks for effort though.
Top performer in the usual group since last Friday's close:
https://invst.ly/pjdj8
G doing well today, even if it didn’t seem to be spectacular. I grabbed the photos at 194 before the auction could ruin them. Hopefully bunks will now see the FC trophy slip away from his grasp as the week and sp progresses.
The gap between G and 3xBrent has narrowed massively over the last week and G is near enough to 3x to be hardly worth mentioning.
https://invst.ly/pkeui
On the five day view G has performed well against GKP - around 10% better in relative terms - and respectably better than the majors and DNO.
https://invst.ly/pkeu9
Fingers crossed it slips away boyo, very much looking forward to being massively wrong this week,. Let's go...
OP not helping today - most oil co's seem to be down except for GKP which had an update today. I'm increasingly suspicious about the payments too, starting to suspect that it'll turn out to be a 2 month 'hole' in continuity rather than a straightforward delay affecting only two specific payments. Hope I'll be proved totally wrong about that.
Right, I'm starting to write my speech...
Don't forget to mention all those who've mentored and encouraged you including Hawkey, Ocelot, Hasiba, Klassic, Hydrogen, Leem, mum and dad etc.
The EIA could throw a big spanner in all our hopes tomorrow, of course. There's also Libya and maybe something devilish from Davos....
Such a waste witnessing the share price limping on. A catalogue of issues but totally underwhelming and much more potential than this price suggests. If only Genel could bang the KRG round the head and start getting this nonsense under control. It’s ruining the investment potential
The ‘Comparison from peak OP $86’ has become a busy picture over time but you only need to glance at the right hand side in order to check out where G is relative to the rest currently. If you’ve got more time and inclination, the green Brent trace is effectively rebased to about 2.9x - so it’s easy to look back over the chart and see roughly when, in the last 15 months, G was performing averagely (3x OP) or above, ie when G’s red was above Brent’s green trace:
https://invst.ly/pkx5r
I use this chart interactively, so I can see that on this day last year G closed at 207 at an OP of less than $63. When the sp goes backwards like that it is not much fun, even if the other companies are doing much the same.
Chevron - only recently added to the chart in place of BP - has been the most consistent and best performer. RDS is presently drifting back down towards its lowest price of the period. Despite having a golden period last year and leading the smaller companies until last autumn, DNO is currently the worst performer to date, although PMO held that honour until quite recently. G and GKP have tended to remain close - G above GKP for maybe 40% of the time in this comparison (on a subjective glance).
Fair enough Leem - but G actually best of this bunch over the last 5 days. GKP perked up today because of their Update RNS but G has strengthened v OP considerably in the last week. Sometimes it's not obvious when OP is a bit soft or falling.
https://invst.ly/pkxcd.
Let's see what happens when the EIA numbers come out (I guess they may be a day later this week
because of the US public holiday for MLKjr yesterday)
Duff link in previous post - pesky full stop in url. This should work:
https://invst.ly/pkxcd
Is or has Genel ever been seriously up for sale ?
I have a feeling that the MNR are blocking any sale of GENL, GKP or DNO as we minnows are all easier to control compared to Big Oil ?
Is Gene up for sale ......Yes...and no.
The Yes is that any company would be sold if a price was offered high enough. The no being since TH left I have not heard of it at all.
Based on the shareholder make up that we believe is in place I don't think a share price plus a few percent would cut the mustard.
Genel has always had huge potential. Sarta and Qara Dagh, Bina Bawi, Miran and a free carry Somaliland ad you have multiples of this price.....
Thanks for prompt info Hawke - I have been neglecting Genl recently by focussing on my flatlined GKP disaster.
Nobody seems to want anything to do with Kurdistan, so I guess we all have to muddle along until the PSCs expire and get returned to the tribals.
Not sure that will ever happen but who knows.
Decent dividend, exciting prospects, low SP for buyers, excellent Free cash flow.....
What’s not to like.?
As with all shares you pays your money and you make your choice.
Good luck..,.
Hawkey
Yes Hawkey - agree with your comments about TH. He made no secret of the fact that G would be sold if the right offer came along but that was pre-ISIS, pre-Taq Taq write downs, pre Erbil-Baghdad budget issues and pre the Referendum debacle. Since then I get the impression that Kurdish companies might not even be touched with the proverbial barge-pole.
Hi Boyo, Hawkey,
I certainly cannot see any western company buying Genel, however, a Russian one remains a possibility (Chinese one is more fanciful).
As the Russian control a lot of the infra structure for energy in Kurdistan, I would not be surprised if they wanted to take control of a gas field like Miran/Bina Bawi but I doubt it would be the best deal ever for us. They would probably discuss with KRG and then tell us what the deal is.
In the background, the clock is ticking on the PCS expire/renewal date.
It is as risky as ever but still the potential is there ... for fireworks or downfall.
The decline of Tawke is now well documented, we need those new fields to come into production pretty soon ....
Write down for Tawke is a possibility for FY results. The plan was to drill a lot of wells to stabilise production at Tawke. This has been done and the production went done by about 10k bopd this year.
Has Peshkabir got more to give in terms if production increase? That is quite an interesting question to answer.
I am certainly not trying to dampen the spirit but it is interesting to think about the dynamics of the company in terms of increasing production.
Over to you guys...
GLA.
So, next obvious question is : ? do we know the expiry dates of our PSCs ?
From memory, the current extension for Miran/Bina Bawi is April this year, and this is a one year extension that was granted last year already ... but please check it. I can't remember if it is for both fields or only one of them. I think it is one licence, but not sure if PSC apply to both fields.
Hello everyone, i do apologise but i haven't been in Genel very long. What will happen when the PSC expires.
Thanks
Either an extension or it is terminated ... or we have started developing the field ....
So if it is terminated we could lose out big time?
Extension to Bina Bawi and Miran conditions precedent
Genel Energy plc ('Genel' or 'the Company') has agreed with the Kurdistan Regional Government to extend the deadline to meet the conditions precedent related to the Bina Bawi gas lifting agreement ('GLA') until 30 April 2019, allowing time to finalise the ongoing commercial discussion.
The deadline to meet the conditions precedent relating to the Miran GLA has also been extended, until 31 May 2019.
I cant remember exactly the wording, but if it terminated we would have first refusal on whatever the KRG agrees with another party or a share of revenue or something along those lines.
In practice, the KRG is unlikely to terminate unilaterally the agreement because it would damage their image as a fair business partner, and they can't really afford it.
So it is not that nice a situation for us PIs because we do not have any visibility, but it is probably not that bad.
One of the things that gives reassurance in my opinion is the big stability of our largest shareholders.
In theory, things should happen this year good or bad....
DYOR
GLA
Ok my bad, I thought he was talking about Miran and Bina Bawi, as as you pointed out Tawke is just an on-going operation.
As for BS, there is probably a better choice of words. Thanks.