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I agree with you, but there is a difference between, "Skin in the game", and keeping your complete reproductive organs in it! GLA
They certainly timed their sales well and got a good price. I hope the drop has bottomed out but I have a buy in trigger of 800p if it goes that low. Tbf to the directors they retained decent holding for the most part. No doubt this will kick on when the froth is blown away.
I note with interest that 2 directors sold considerable %'s of their holdings yesterday at circa 934p. The fall-back today represents a correction to a price that has run ahead of itself. I bought in some years ago at 230p, so have done very well. I sold everything yesterday, but will look to buy back in when the sp settles again. GLA
A remarkable day for GBG. I couldn't believe my eyes when I looked first thing and saw the share price up over 100p and close to £10!. Was that an error?. I looked at the price to buy through my brokers and it gave nothing like the price shown on here so it was very much an opening price it seems. I was never likely to buy back in but GBG has stayed on my watchlist ever since I sold out some time ago for old time, old friends sake. Congratulations to all that have been holding. I think I would have been very tempted to have sold out entirely at such a high price and looked to have bought back in at a lower price as it seemed more than likely to fall back during the day. Hope nobody got caught out.
I fully agree with FK that the share price had got way ahead of itself and there may be shorter term retracement. Some distant bell in my head seems to remember that on results day GBG always seemed to fall back despite all the excellent news which was always frustrating.
Good news for holders that the dividend is being increased. When so many companies are withholding, reducing or at best only holding their dividend this is indeed good news. Having said that I always thought that GBG were mean in the size of their dividend; it has never been a share to invest in for the dividend. I would have thought they could have paid more but then the growth in the share price has more than made up for it I guess. And it you invested early days when the share price was around 60p then it is better than looking for any laughable interest rate you would get in any bank/building society.
BT - thanks for your kind words/concern re my situation regarding RR. That is comforting. It rather puts into perspective what is and what isn't important. I had to laugh at the picture of you shouting across the office at what the weather was doing etc!, great. Similar situation to me standing on the roadside in Hawkshead shouting into my phone to my Mum. Nobody could see I was holding a phone since I had my cycle helmet on and must have thought I had terrets (excuse the spelling if it is wrong). And me shouting "No, I can't speak any louder!" and looking around nervously. We have to laugh otherwise we would cry!.
Good luck all and excuse any off topic. BT and I have known each other many years on this board. And a good board it is too, always has been. Long may it continue.
Regards
CM
Indeed Monk. It has weakened considerably since the morning on consideration of maybe a flat next half. Now under 900p having been 943p early morning. Might be a rally into the close but certainly at 943p it had got ahead of itself.
We should see the SP over £10 this year then increasing by about £1 each year. The dramatic
increase in online transactions is great news for GBG.
I agree with FK on this one, it has not only risen today it was rising strongly into the results.
I have been reducing over the past week and then took a big top slice today. I think it is a good long term hold but seems to have go a bit ahead of its self this week....
I will top up again in the months to come.
Morning Moorhey. I would sell because not everything has a fixed price. I would only sell some and then buy back if it fell enough or hold the remainder if it went up further. The next half will be flat or slightly ahead which may anchor the price. Very good share though and a core holding for me.
Ah CM, you were my last hope, bloody Trump.
The man is an idiot who's limited intellect is a very real danger to us all. Take care.
Just up making Mrs BT a cuppa. All I can say is outstanding. The 'one-off' US project has clearly played a part but 10% organic growth is brilliant for the last 6 months. I always knew it, work from home is the way to go. Very strong continued cash gen, almost back to zero borrowings and a divi - Xmas is here early.
Have another look later when I've got my glasses..LOL.
Have fun CM and GLA
BT
Can't help with the Russians BT, Donald Trump has booked them all to help his election campaign. Think the word is "election", but knowing his reputation I may be wrong.
Must get back to work
Regards
CM
Morning CM,
Thank you for your concern my friend, we are both safe and well and very pleased to hear that RR and her 'Trainer' are too!. It's daft to say I didn't have time to come on here, we are had too much bloody time but I guess with the markets all over the place over the last 6 months, I tended to leave it all alone and find other stuff to do. I've never been a trader as you know; never had the inclination to spend that amount of time at the screen and sell low/buy high never seems that far away. Like you I'm now happy to avoid risk as much as possible and try and enjoy life in this crazy new world. Very pleased to hear that yr finances are in a better place CM, I know it's been tough over recent years but if the path ahead looks easier and more comfortable than the one behind you, that's not a bad place to be. Good on you.
All we both both need now is a Russian (or similar) supermodel to come round a couple of times a week to 'tend house' (or similar) for us. Sadly Mrs BT doesn't think much of that idea so if you find one, send pictures!
Sorry to hear that the dementia is getting that much worse, never had to suffer that in any of mine or Mrs BT's parents but I did smile a little when I remembered back to some of my phone calls with my mum, who did go somewhat deaf towards the end. Sitting in my office shouting at the top of my voice about how the weather was, or something similar, always went down well with the rest of my team. Just keep doing what you are doing and smile when you can. I'm sure it helps.
Good 'ole GBG has been an absolute gem for me and today it's taken off again. Who'd have thought we'd be nudging £9 now? Not me. The Berenberg update and narrative today are, I'm sure, fuelling this but we have seen very steady and significant growth over recent weeks. As I said in earlier post let's see what the H1 results look like. With strong cash flow they may push ahead with the balance of the recent partial acq. Which idiot sold at 50p? Oh I remember.........
Must go, dogs demand walkies and they are second only to you know who in the BT household hierarchy.
Take care my friend and stay safe.
Best wishes
BT
Hi Fallingknife1 - why you'd want to sell when the SP is only 10% higher than it was on 1st Jan 2020, and yet the business is in a far better place now than it was then, I don't know. Sure, the SP is up a lot since March, but didn't something happen in March? I forget what it was now, but wasn't the Trump was blaming China?
Fair play to you CM. Sounds like a heavy but necessary duty.
GBG is booming pre-update. I am delighted I haven't sold any and put the divi back in since buying. It must be getting a bit heady now. I am sure the update will be good but I am tempted to sell some into it. It was £6.85 in June and probably lower in March so it has been a good run.
So good to hear from you my friend, I had been concerned for your welfare/health. I had wondered if you had been taken by the virus, seriously, or had just decided to call it a day with posting and/or finally sold out. Thankfully the news is good from you and I continue to wish you well and of course MrsBT.
Although no longer invested in GBG I still have it on my watchlist. Great to see it doing so very well, better than pretty much anything else over the years. I first invested at around 60p adding some more, selling the lot, buying back in etc, Finally sold out at around 518p which seems far too early now but as you rightly say we have to do what we think is right at the time. None of us can know for sure the way things will go and there will always be the unforeseen events which will likely shake all shares, too many examples over the last 10 years or so to start compiling a list. Through all of those though GBG has continued successfully to grow its' business. I am now, what?, ooh, 10+ years older and now view 10 years very differently to what I did those years ago. "Life is like a toilet roll, the nearer the end you get the faster it goes" and i don't feel up to holding things for that long any longer. And in truth, now that I am living financially a little more comfortably I don't want to take the risks I once did. Additionally other things have become more important, like family and health.
Thanks for asking about RR, BT. She is now in full time care, won't be going home. The dementia has set in and getting worse to the degree she barely know who I am and can't hear me when I phone most times. I tell her what has been happening, weather etc in the hope that just maybe she will hear me even if we can no longer hold a conversation. Visiting is now re-allowed but restricted to 30 minutes in the lobby after ones' temperature has been taken. It's a 6 hour drive plus to visit but that is no more than minor inconvenience. There must be no regrets when the time comes. At least now she is getting proper 24 hour care and she has company.
Hope all is going well with the house and you are getting those jobs done!. Give yourself some time out for yourself.
Regards
CM
Tks for the reply. If you check the 'GBG Share News' thumbnail above it should be the first or second item listed. Thought we might hit £8 today so quickly looked back here. Nice to see and onward and upward. GL & Regards
BT
Great post. Do you have a lnk for the broker re-rating ?
Not been back here for a while, hope all lth's are safe & well. Just caught up with the Q1 news and the latest acquisition-in-progress. Both excellent. Nice to see BG still on the acq. trail, this has really been pushed hard by the new (although not so new now) CEO and his more corporate approach. And of course we now have an mcap of £1.5b, a long way from the co I knew 18 yrs or so ago when I first dipped in here. Also great to see the broker rerating. These tend to be somewhat academic exercises (the old 'target price' was £565p!) but the move from 565p to 870p is a useful rerate and the underlying narrative was fairly upbeat. I guess the market likes what it sees here and we are back somewhere near we should be in the high 700's/800's. It will be interesting to see what the half year looks like, the broker narrative suggests that it should be reasonably encouraging. Should be out in about 4 weeks.
CM, hope you are well my friend. We are sitting tight here (Mrs BT is type 2) and we won't be going anywhere, anytime soon. We are lucky here (village just o/s of Newmarket) where infections and R rates are low but we still only go out for provisions and the odd take away coffee. It must have been tough telling RR, we went through it with Mrs BT's mum many years ago and it is never easy but there comes a point where she is at far greater risk at home than she is in care. I hope she remains safe and well in these very difficult times and that you can now visit her. My mum never went into care but in her final years she lived each day for the simple phone call I made to her. Never lasted that long and we talked about the weather, last nights telly, anything really and I always tried to make her smile at least once a day. I'm sure RR is the same and keep in touch whatever way you can.
I still (for me) hold a lot of these but have sold a lot over the years since buying in at c34p back when I had a full head of hair (those were the days). I remember when we hit 50p and I sold a few to buy something (can't remember what). c50% increase whooppee. Little did I know and I should have held onto all of them. Bought more over the years, of course, but you do what seems best at the time and move on. Always easy to look back and say.....if only... Anyways. got a bit more time now, never knew a new house would need so many shelves, cupboards, brackets, etc but 'she who always knows best' has said so, so it must be true. I'll look back in a week or 2. Stay well CM and very best wishes to you both.
BT
We should be over 750p today
noon low. I think those that bailed early doors today have missed the low and will see a climb from here. I have seen a couple of broker targets of around 750p and that to me is easily achievable here. The presentations today may also help sharpen pencils of analysts who may see intrinsic value here. Worth at least 700p.
Good morning BT.,
Hope all is well with you all and those who have self isolated will be out of isolation in the very near future. It's amazing that we have got to the year 2020 without having a endemic previously since 1918 and how much we have taken for granted. Over time things may well revert to the old normal or pretty close to it I hope because I don't see how things can go on long term as they are now with all the social distancing etc., and in particular the restrictions on visiting folk.
RR has now gone into respite care at a care home but in truth it is unlikely she will return home after 2 falls recently including a stay in hospital for 5 days. Her confusion is no better. Although she seems to be settling in it is still raw with me having to tell her that the time had come for her to leave her home and be properly looked after 24/7. Very difficult to take I can't visit for the foreseeable future.
Good to see GBG holding up. Some good news posted by Alwaysone. I still keep an eye on GBG, like keeping an eye on an old friend, rather like BT, less emphasis on the "old" though!. Would have been far better had I kept my investment in GBG and sold others and not invested in others, but everything is easy in retrospect and with hind sight. There will always be opportunities of course. Had I been coming into investments new now I wonder what I would be thinking?.
Hope everything is good with the new house BT. Have you caught up with all the jobs Mrs. BT has found for you?.
Regards to all and good luck
CM
https://www.gbgplc.com/newsroom/gbg-credolab-indonesia/
JAKARTA, June 16 2020 – GBG (AIM:GBG), the global technology specialist in fraud and compliance management, identity verification and location data intelligence today announced a technology partnership with CredoLab, the leading developer of bank-grade digital scorecards based on privacy-consented and permissioned smartphone metadata, to easily and confidently assess the creditworthiness of any Indonesian individual, including the unbanked and underbanked. While banks in Indonesia have tapped on local bureaus, telcos, and e-commerce providers for data to perform credit and fraud checks, data continues to be fragmented and unreliable, contributing to high non-performing loans, low approval rates and a high level of fraud. This technology partnership will help brick-and-mortar and digital banks deterred by a lack of data to leverage on mobile phone digital footprints to process banking and credit applications and provide financial empowerment to all new-to-credit, new-to-bank, and gig economy workers of the country.
Of the nearly 400 million adults in Southeast Asia[1], only 104 million are fully “Banked” and enjoy full access
to Financial Services. Another 98 million are “Underbanked”, with a bank account but insufficient access
to credit, investment and insurance, while 198 million remain “Unbanked” and do not own a bank account. Millions of small and medium enterprises also face large funding gaps. 50% of 181 million Indonesian are eligible for bank and credit services, yet do not have access to financial products due to the lack of historical bank record or full-time employment such the “Ojol”, app drivers.
"We are very excited with this partnership between GBG and CredoLab. By assimilating metadata on consumers’ digital footprint and behavioural intelligence into GBG Instinct digital fraud management platform, we are seeing an uplift in credit and fraud risk protection by up to 40%. This convergence between mobile credit scoring and digital fraud technology helps established and digital banks and lenders onboard quality customers within the financially excluded population,” said June Lee, Managing Director of APAC.
GBG offers an end-to-end digital fraud and compliance solution for banking and non-banking financial institutions looking to onboard and transact with their customers quickly, safely, and securely. With GBG Instinct, banks, lenders, and mobile wallets can leverage an orchestration layer to perform multiple data callouts to CredoLab’s cloud service hosted in Jakarta. It only takes seconds, as opposed to days, to analyse mobile behavioural data and calculate the risk score for any individual to be onboarded.
The result is of the partnership sees an uplift in scorecard predictiveness by up to 39.9%, drop in cost of risk by up to 21.9%, and increase in approval rates of up to 32%.
“Banks and lenders always grapple with the question of “can a customer pay back” a
Good Afternoon Gents,
Just a quick look back here. Will have more time over the w/e.
CM nice to hear back from you. I know its tough but that daily phone call to RR I'm sure still means a great deal.
Here and in the US we have had a distinct lack of clear and decisive leadership. Less said about Trump the better; he is worried about one thing - getting re-elected. He simply does not seem to understand what is going on. Here we just seem to make one balls-up after another. Difficult times and easy to criticise from the sidelines and the mad media don't help but we should and could have done better than this!
In terms of markets, who knows? The initial hit which dropped the FTSE (& Dow) to well below 5k was imo due to the lack of a real definitive plan on both side of the Atlantic. Trump was in denial we weren't too different. We now have hard(ish) lockdowns in place and the UK and NY in particular seem to have passed the peak so the markets have seen some confidence return. We will still see large daily movements but if we do start to lift the lockdowns I can see a continuing upward trend for most sectors for over the next 4 months or so up to maybe 6.5k . With so many variables and so much that can still go wrong I would only rush in now if you don't need the money for 4 to 6 months. Decent profits to be had medium/long term but short term you can easily still get hit hard if deaths/new infections start to escalate. Just my opinion of course. I offer no advice.
Fantastic results here, much as expected but better overall than I thought we would see. Due mainly to the full year inclusion of the new acquisitions but continued strong organic growth too. Terrific performance. I also like the tone of the outlook and fully expected them to hold back on the dividend. Why would you relinquish that level of liquidity in these very uncertain times? To pay it now would be needlessly reckless and is not in keeping with how this business is run. Strong balance sheet, debt nicely down and the nature of their model means that impact from CV19 will be far less than for many other sectors and businesses. I thought this was one of their best updates ever, given the current environment.
And predictably we thump down, which has become the trend over recent years with AI trading. Bound to be some reaction but this because 2021 will likely see a drop in performance but this is the same old up and down that has become the norm.
I think we will see some reasonable recoveyr here once these results sink in but not sure when. Too easy, these days to manipulate a share like this to your own ends.
Patrm, welcome, not sure I've seen you hear before. It's tough for a lot of folks out there and can be very tough for the self employed. Hope that things work out for both you and CM. Keep and eye on this because the price is pushed up and then down and can bear little resemblance to overall market movements.
Have to go. Gents stay & well
Regards
BT
Good day BT. Unlike you it seems, I have plenty more time to post on here at present with being furloughed. No news as to when I will be returning to work. It has given me the chance to not only wind down and relax more but also to catch up on those jobs too eagerly put off. "Don't put off until tomorrow what you can put off until next week" had been my motto.
Regarding RR, one of the real problems that folk have with dementia is they can't really follow the repercussions of coronavirus, in particular the lock down and the lack of visits by friends and family. I am asked each time I phone if there is a chance I will visit. It is hard for both sides. At least there is a resemblance of a conversation though, which is something and that in itself makes for a "good day". As you say the virus takes no prisoners; I am sure we all know someone who has suffered or been lost to it.
Not too sure what to make of BoJo. He comes across as being some absent minded Uncle, who ever body thinks is a bit of a twit but for some strange reason rather like him. Often breaks into some Latin or refers to something out of Greek Mythology, as if anybody knows what the heck he is talking about or cares. Difficult to take him seriously. But hey, we voted him in, well, some one did...........then again wasn't much of a choice. Maybe Labour can start to be taken more seriously now that Corbyn has gone along with the likes (or should that be dislikes) of Dianne Abbott!. We may still be in the frying pan but at least we are not in the fire.
Then there is Trumpty Dumpty. Don't get me started!. The great "I AM". Spoiling for a fight. Really missing all his rallies no doubt. If he isn't the headline for a week or two, he will do something or say something so that he is. Wants to take acclaim for all that is right and non of the blame for anything that is wrong. Wanted to keep gun shops open as essential businesses during the virus. Pictures of long queues outside said shops - says it all. And we were worried about toilet rolls and pasta!.
My views of the general market haven't changed. GBG is holding up pretty well, at present and will probably continue to do so; until there is another downturn generally affecting most shares. It remains on my watchlist. There is an outside chance I will re-invest but not at these levels. Begbies Traynor is another company on my watchlist - insolvency company. Warren Buffet says there are only 2 rules to investing: Rule 1 - don't lose money, and Rule 2 - don't forget Rule1!. On that basis, at this particular time I would rather sit on the sidelines. I believe there is likely to be more downside before any true recovery, although I may well be wrong. To what level do folk believe the FTSE can rise to under the present and immediate future?, and on what basis?. I'd rather chill out in the garden with a cold beer right now, or should that be a Jura?!.
Stay safe, stay well one and all
Regards
CM
Hi CM,
Thanks for the good wishes. Don't get much time to post on here, too busy in the new house. Mrs BT has a veeeeeery long list of jobs for me!
Do what you can for RR, it must be very difficult, dementia is very cruel. Smoking killed my Mum and Dad so haven't seen it up close but a friend is going through the same thing as you and it is tough indeed. Take the good days when they arrive and try not to let the bad ones get you down too much. Being bloody minded can help keep the mind active that bit longer but above all else keep her as safe as you can in today's world. This bastard virus takes no prisoners.
Markets have settled a bit after the initial panic, which knocked 30% or more off most equities. Retail, airlines, etc have taken a far bigger hit but that's to be expected. As I've said here, imo our approach was far too slow and smacked of dithering. Other than killing a lot more people, I have no idea what the initial intention was because allowing sports events and 'normal' activity simply caused a far bigger peak far earlier than would have been the case had we self isolated 10 days earlier.
I have been distinctly unimpressed with Bojo. First the flooding and now this. The Govt seemed to have no idea what to do, and of course we missed the email for ordering PPE as part of a European bulk order. Would Maggie or Cameron or even Blair have been so slow to react? Who knows. Let's hope they get their act together now. As bad as it's been here, could it ever trump Trump? The man is deranged and dangerous. He forgets all of his tweets about how it will all be over by Easter and how within a few days the US will have 'zero' cases and blames it all on the Chinese and the WHO. And now be backs marches and demonstrations against staying in self isolation purely so that the markets might recover a bit to help his re election. How did this low intellect, imbecile get into power?
Anyways, enough ranting from me too. We all need to let off steam once in a while. We are seeing a bit of stability generally. It doesn't take much to spook markets but atm we seem to be waiting for news on lifting lockdowns, vaccines, etc when confidence should hopefully start to come back, albeit slowly. A recession? Yes, without a doubt, at least technically (a decline over 3 successive months) but I do believe that we will see a strong bounce back for many businesses.
GBG has been hammered but this is the new norm here. We had SL selling a few, a Director offloading some and then the general trending up and down, as we have seen over recent years.
Results are due any day I guess. Easter will have pushed them back from last year. I'm expecting a decent step up in the last year. Outlook likely to be more uncertain but it's mainly a subscription model so shouldn't be impacted too much. I guess with so much home working, one could say that firms need GBG services more than ever but we just wait and see.
Stay safe CM & Best Wishes
BT
Good evening BT., good to see you are still posting.
Difficult times indeed. Heaven knows what is happening with the markets; they just don't make any sense. I have had my fingers burnt twice over the last 2 or 3 weeks by trying to short the FTSE, which on the face of it would make sense with the current state of affairs and the likely repurcussions. However, despite everything, the lockdown, folk not going out to spend money (if they have any), job losses, furloughing, companies likely to go bust, even major companies in severe difficulties the market has kept going up!. Are we in a parallel universe or something where the opposites are true?. I don't think we have seen the worst of the financial implications yet. A recession is more than likely to happen, it's just a matter of how severe and how long it will last. How can that lead to higher share prices?. If ever there was proof that the markets are being manipulated, to someones good, then I don't know what it is!.
In the U.S the Fed seems to be printing money as though it is going out of fashion, and nevermind about tomorrow lets just think about today attitude. Over 11 million unemployed in the last 3 weeks alone and now at over 10% nationally and still likely to rise far further. Job losses, companies going bust and of course, many folk dying from the virus as is the case all over the world. I wonder just how much Trumpty Dumpty has to do with the market rising with it being an election year; he can't let the market fall in case folk blame him, although of course nothing is ever his fault, he isn't responsible for anything bad only what is good. Feel sorry for him (not) what is he going to do without being able to hold all his rallies?, will he find a way to postpone the election?. All sounds like a bit of a rant, sorry. Just seems we are led by what is happening on Wall Street.
As for GBG, well it remains very much on my watchlist although I have been out of the company for some time now. Did I think about re-investing when it was under £5?, no. I think that despite it being a cracking company there may well be a retrace in the not distant future, simply because when the tide goes out all ships go down as we have already seen. Too much false optimism about.
BT - must be difficult to see the old house now a ruin. Think mine has gone the other way, with it having been a stables at some time before it was converted into the present dwelling. I am led to believe some of the foundations were actually taken from a Roman fort, the remains of that lie about a mile or less away. Plenty of time to work on the house and garden with being furloughed from work for the forseeable future.
Regarding RR, well, she is increasingly frail, the dementia is setting in more. Doesn't know who I am much of the time when I am with her nor hear me but ok on the phone. Difficult. She needs looking after but like me is too bloody minded.
Stay well, stay well one and all