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Hi Qd,
Hope all is well with you and yours.
We certainly do cycle up and down, as you say, but like you I have no doubts about the longer term prospects here. I knew this company 20 or more years ago before it floated on AIM and was impressed then with Richard Laws and the (very small) team that he had. He's now retired/moved on and we have a much more 'Corporate' CEO in Chris Clark, which is exactly what we need as the MCap now approaches £2bill. It was very relevant then and has become so much more relevant now in this increasingly digitised world.
Lots of folks chasing quantum computing and the 'quantum internet', which could really change the game but they are both fraught with technical/scaling issues and you will always need to verify who you are talking to and/or doing business with so I don't see anything on the horizon just yet to rock this boat.
Yes, I bought in at 34p ish and sold some when it hit 75p, (what an nutjob!!!) and more on the way up but you do what you do and you can't go back. This share has basically returned my investment every year. It hasn't been linear all the way but overall that's where we are. I still hold a fair few and it does help the old retirement income now I don't have a nice salary cheque each month. I do get a decent lie in though.....when Mrs BT's makes the morning tea....which I confess isn't that often!
I keep a float and whilst I only look in once a week or so I sold those shares at c£9.35/£9.40 and will now wait for it to fall back to somewhere around £8.30 or maybe a bit below and buy back in. The low to high cycle can take a couple of months and I don't try to hit the top and bottom but get as close as I can. I've done this 5 or 6 times now and am very happy with the result.
Everyone has their own goals and investment plans and I don't recommend this to anyone but it works for me.
Mrs BT having problems planting tomatoes (apparently), so I'm needed elsewhere. Qd stay safe my friend and good luck in all of your endeavours,
Regards
BT
CM be great to hear from you if when you have a moment. Thinking of you and hope you (& RR) too are safe and well.
Hi BT.
Sorry, I didn't see your very helpful post until now. When I saw it I was surprised, I had absolutely no memory of posting that! However I did top up then. I don't generally trade, just sell into what seems to be a spike occasionally, and use it to top up something that's languishing for no obvious reason. Seldom a shortage of candidates for that!
It certainly does seem to have cycled up and down, especially this year, but the long term is such a lovely graph! Smooth out the noise and it's just a steady rise - up over 20X in 10 years. 9p in September 2001: if you had it and held it for the full 20 years that's a 100 bagger. And yet there are just a few old faithfuls on the BB.
Unless in a few years time quantum computers completely change the ball game I can't see the need for these services decreasing for a long time yet. Plus it's AIM so hopefully good if I pop my clogs: once the 2 years are up. An AIM share you can just leave to grow... famous last words!! Lol.
Hope you and Mrs BT are fully recovered now. Thanks for your help.
Hi Qd,
I don't post that much but my thoughts on this co. are well known if you read these forums.
The sp is cycled up and down and has been for a number of year, seemingly ignoring strength of results and general market movements. I've been saying this for years. We can dip down 100, even 150 points (typically after results come out) and sometimes more but we always come back, such is the strength and relevance of this co.
I would never give investment advice to anyone and it is always difficult to know where the top and bottom of these cycles are but we are back over 900 and imo are closer to the top than the next bottom. I hold a fair number long term (getting close to 20 yrs now...LOL) but try and ride the peaks and troughs. I bought another traunche at a little under 830 (5 or 6 weeks ago - need to check) and will look to sell soon. We may go back up to high 900's but I am happy to bank the profit once I get over 10% or so. Longer term I do see more growth organically and thru acquisition so I'm happy to hold here but make a few bob here and there as we go. As I've said we may well continue up for a bit to mid/high 900's but we could also start to drop back soon so be aware if you aren't planning to hold for the long term. You may well do your own detailed research and if so ignore everything I've said and go your own way. These are just my thoughts.
CM haven't seen you on here for a while, hope all is well my friend with you and Red Rum. It would be great to hear from you.
Best wishes to CM, Doze and other long term holders/posters, stay safe in what are still difficult times.
ATB
BT
... for a top up.
A lot of Director buys since the end of 2020 and all above the current price. This ought to be good sign.
Very disappointing to see the price of a great company like this sliding.
Surely we must be near the bottom by now.
Added today hoping that we are at the bottom of the dip. More buys then sells if the figures are to be believed.
Same pattern as other holding I have like KWS, KNOS and PLUS.
Hoping not be underwater for years on all of these.
Bigtosh: I pretty-much agree with you there. It's not just the stockmarkets that are heavily influenced and manipulated trading applications on laptops - I used to be a player on the exchanges on the "in-running" markets, but they are impossible to play now as they are totally dominated by computer programmes working on automatic instructions based on flow of money. They can go wrong - that's why at any horseracing meeting there are about half-a-dozen drones relaying pics in real-time to punters off-course - but you have to be lightning quick to take advantage.
I'm wondering is some of the market move was due to the plunge in value of Bitcoin: there's no direct link, it's just in the field.
This is a fairly normal pattern on GBG and has been for some years now. As I said below there is little 'real' liquidity here, the buy/sell activity comes from probably 1 or a small number of large holders who on their own can move the sp quite effectively. You need low liquidity that is 'interference' from others so that every buy/sell counts, a small spread, typically 0.2% or below here and low trading costs, which with the number of transactions they would have. Interesting to note that when the spread increases for whatever reason as it does now and then all trading stops until the spread falls back again. All done with AI and the sp can cycle and fall 50 to 100 pts and then climb up again. Clearly this sp cycling up and down ends up in a net gain for the holder otherwise they wouldn't do it. And I guess, why not? Rather then just sitting on your shares waiting for Xmas, you can use them to generate an income.
It's typically taken down on/after results, maybe because good results (and they always are here) are the high water mark for the sp.
Of course, I could be totally paranoid and way off the mark but I've certainly made a few bob following these trends over recent years (albeit not over recent months) but I will watch as and when this looks to settle near a bottom point and buy a few more.
This is my biggest holding by a long way and has been for many years but always happy to add a few more.
All my own opinion of course and as I say I could be completely wrong so please make your own judgements here,
Cheers
BT
I've no idea why the SP of GBG dipped today given the results, which look really positive. It could be the payment of a dividend allows less cash for acquisitions, which could be seen (by some pessimists) as a signal for reduced growth; but it makes no sense to me at all. I'm likely to increase my shareholding.
Other tech stocks I own like KWS and KNOS have also been hit hard today. The common factor is me. Don't know how I do it.
Anyone explain share price, big fall, following the company news,all positive, to-day ??????
Glad to hear you're on the mend.
It's disappointing to see the SP drop on good results but I guess not unusual.
I expect it will rise again over the next few months.
Morning All.
Not been here for a fair while. Got hit by Covid at the turn of the year. Whole family did; we think the 4yr youngest Grandson brought it back from Nursery. Luckily we all came through it but it has taken the 'oldies', Mrs BT and yours truly, a bit longer than the rest of the clan. Incredibly tired, headaches and generally felling like s**t for many months - when they say it can take months to get over this, they mean it. Kids and Grandkids had almost no symptoms. We were incredibly lucky when we see what it's done to so many others - not our time I guess!
Anyways, thought I'd check in and had a quick look at the w/e but no real time to spend. Now seen the results and as expected another excellent year. As we said back last year the move to home working has accelerated the need for remote verification and GBG's toolsets are perfectly placed to meet these needs.
BTW 20'sTrader I thought your website was an excellent precise of the business as it stands now. I've known this company for the best part of 2 decades but you lose touch with some of the detail so it was great to get back up to speed.
I also loved Moorhey's Wild West analogy, hadn't really thought about it before but yes that works well.
And then as is the way for this share, epic results cause the sp to fall back. This is the same old, same old that we've seen here so may times over recent years. Not that much liquidity here generally and a big holder(s) can force the price up or down quite effectively on their own. Haven't done so lately but let it drop, get somewhere near the bottom, buy a few and let it come back up. It always does.
So I'll go away and read this properly and it would be nice to hear from some of the other posters. CM hope that you are still looking in and keeping well. Hope RR is too. Take care everyone & best wishes
BT
That's a good read.
I think of the internet (and internet derived companies, like GBG) as a bit like the old wild west.
Currently, we're at about 1880 with railways opening up the US economy; but whereas the old-West developed in "real time" the internet market place is growing about 50% quicker (in time-scale).
The next 15 years will be like the period between 1880-1910.
Hi all, here is an article on GB group recently written for my website. It covers the GBG business units, acquisitions, financials and scope for growth going forward. https://www.thetwentiestrader.com/post/gb-group-annual-report-recent-results-investment-case
I see that OKTA have just taken over Auth0 for around $6bn. Probably means that they are too busy at the moment.
If GBG ever gets swallowed up, it happens. Until then will maintain my interest in the company. Meanwhile am sure the GBG board/management are concentrating on what's the best move to improve the company right now.
I can see GBG being bought by a US-based company like OKTA.
Good news. £35m of debt paid off. Net Cash £21m. The company can't afford to stand still, needs to invest in AI tech. A £3m all share investment in CredoLabs (Aug20 rns) could be the key to future developments,. Though CredoLab are working with a US company Iovation. It is likely that GBG are already negotiating their next deal.
The latest Alliance Trading Update 7 Day diary has GBG announcing both on Monday 19 and Thursday 22 April. The GBG website's Key dates - Investors page. still has April 22 as the date. Either date, it doesn't matter, the main thing is the details in the announcement.
Alliance News state, GBG Trading Update on 19 April. Has been brought forward from 22nd. The last TU (end Feb) advised profits would be at least £53m. With revenues from the US booming, would that figure to be higher, closer to £60m perhaps? Recent movement in SP, since year end, does suggest that expectations have been raised.
See my post 14th Jan,reduce down to core business
Hopefully the money generated will be used to increase GBG's AI/biometric offering, whether it be by acquisition or by in-house development.
Starting to see a little uptrend I hope but as things are very precarious on planet earth it seems little upticks get sold off.
More transactions more checks more need for identidy verification