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I think that the market that GBG is in, generally bodes well overall. It will take some time for the latest acquisition to bed in I think, maybe longer than others. The share price has adjusted to a large degree but there maybe some more downside which imo isn't a reflection on GBG but more to do with the general market. There is no sign of the so called Santa rally this year, or at least, not to date and time is running out. However a rally just down to it coming up to Christmas means little if anything.
It is difficult to know where any sustained recovery is going to come from and when. It looks quite likely that interest rates will be raised in the U.S shortly to try and curtail inflation being the highest since the 1980s; anyone remember those days apart from me, oh, and BT of course?. If that happens then it is likely to have an effect on the U.S market and therefore more than likely over here too, even if the likelihood of any interest rate rise here won't happen until February as has been aired. Then the nasty stuff might hit the whirly thing due to the repercussions. If that happens then folk may be looking to exit the share market although I don't think any rise in savings rates will make it so attractive to put their money in the bank.
Regarding stock markets; it is too easy to look at what is happening to the FTSE100 and the Dow Jones Index, rather than the broader FTSE250 or FTSE350 and the S and P 500 which gives a much better idea what is happening to the more relevant market for most investors. Many of the FTSE100 are made up of more internationally focused companies and the Dow Jones only represents 30 companies. But of course, what happens to the FTSE100 can help or hinder the other indices.
Any director purchases are good news in that it gives a degree of confidence from those who are at the coal face and in the know. And as far as I know, GBG are not being shorted.
Stay well, stay safe
regards
CM
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GBG/director-pdmr-shareholding/15248820
Wobbly markets accounting for poor SP but GBG will still be facilitating cashless transactions. Double tops on the charts but GBG missed out on the second so due a recovery I would think.
Great post Chequemate. I do think in a xcapitalist society that fanancial markets have to be regulated as capitalism is the basis for democracy to work so greed has to be controlled. The FCA do not shoe their teeth enough. I hope this latest capital raise has been spent well and enhances democracy because poor capitalism leads to socialism.
Half year results due out next Tuesday, 30 November. Wonder how that will affect the share price?. Could go either way as experienced in the past. Infact, too often good results have led to a share price fall on the day, so I wouldn't be surprised if that happens again.
Doze, I don't think there will ever be regulation against what has just happened. I think share holders can vote for or against any management salary come the agm but what difference that makes to us lowly private investors against the large institutional investors I think is extremely limited bar register our objection.
The general market is not in a good place at present this side of the big pond at any rate and there may be more turbulence to come with the very real possibility of an interest rate rise to come all be it small (but not as a %). Also I don't believe Covid has finished with us yet and can see restrictions coming back if only the forced wearing of masks. My only holding at present in IGG, is suffering from drip, drip, drip like so many shares which is at least better than a full flood. I am happy enough sitting very largely on the side lines and have far more peace than when I was more heavily invested in the market.
This board continues to keep its' head and respect for others views without the playground antics common on many other boards - long may it last. I think it will unless it catches the eye of the masses by suddenly shooting up in unrealistic value. Once a board gets busy it is usually a good sign to think about abandoning ship.
BT - good to hear from you as usual. I trust things are well and you are not being kept too busy with jobs by Mrs BT!. Things here are okay, enjoying the freedom and peace an extra day off per week allows me and the fun of the company of my 4 legged friends.
Off South next week to see RR . She recognises my voice on the phone, but less likely to my face in person. Such is life. We really need to appreciate what is truly important in life whilst we can and waste less time physically and mentally on what isn't. Spent too much time in the past chasing financial rainbows, too often finding a pot of nothing at the end and losing sleep and sanity in getting there.
GLA
Regards
CM
Thanks Bigtosh. Greedy brokers and IIs shafted us. This sort of practice along with huge management salaries/remuneration needs legislating against.
Annoying for all of us 'retail investors'. I am not on the Primary Bid platform and missed this completely. It would seem that it was pretty much all over before it started. Giving us such a small time window to read and digest the RNS, register on PB and then commit is, frankly, a joke. I still don't understand the price @725p. Risk is a factor obviously, this is a big acquisition, but this looks way overdone to me. This is c22% down on where we were a few weeks back. But it is what it is. The Board clearly wanted to get this done and that's what they've achieved so good for them. Not so good for the LTH's, at least short term.
I looked back over the w/e at recent RNS's. Reviewed again the latest results just to reassure myself. They were excellent, as indeed they have been for a very long time. The appointment of Singh as a Non Exec was clearly timed to assist this.
I will continue to hold here, I accept the risks but don't see them as any sort of deal breaker and still see the long term prospects here as very good, particularly so given this acqn.
The price won't move much while those who bought in as a short term trade continue to pump and dump but once those holdings have been liquidated we should start to get back to growth, albeit with the probable cycling up and down that we've seen over recent years. I can see 800p coming back fairly quickly. Beyond that we will probably need to see the end of year results in Q2 next year and a commentary on how well this integration is progressing. We have a long way to go.
Everyone needs to make their own decisions here and I wouldn't blame anyone for bailing given what went on Thurs/Fri. This, for me, just leaves a bad taste in what has otherwise been an exemplary company/Board over a long period of time.
Anyways CM, Doze (et al), stay safe my friends
BT
Really annoying for me. LTH since buying at 145p in 2014. Noticed it's been a bit flat overall recently but fairly consistent small swings. I was getting a bit uncomfortable with how big a proportion of my portfolio GBG was. My plan was to do some topslicing if it got back above 900p and maybe start trading the small swings.
That's in tatters now. I didn't want to buy any more on the slump as I already have too many, and part of the reason for topslicing was to free up cash for short term trading.
Cheers Chequemate, I got the info from Primary Bid in an email at 17.20 on Thursday with "The offer price will be determined at the end of the bookbuild process." I should have reacted but you do need plenty of liquid funds to do that. They have given me more warning in the past only 1.66% of the placing/retail offer went to PIs, it would have been bigger with more warning.
I post very rarely these days but keep a keen eye on good old GBG. It remains on my foremost watchlist, although why I bother having the watchlists I do beats me these days since I make so few transactions. But, it's good to keep in with old friends and check how they are doing. Some of us go back, ooh.....how many years BT?, err......no, don't tell me, it will scare me.
I was given quite a shock first look at the share price this morning. I did a double take before checking out what was going on. My initial thought was there must have been a profit warning. I found it a little difficult to make head or tail of the RNS and felt that present investors were given short change. It wasn't as though any warning was given of it, even before yesterdays market close, so one couldn't sell out quickly, although any chance of that would have been picked up by the market makers I guess and they would have marked the price down. And I suppose on that basis it prevented the share price from falling further than what it opened at. But a kick in the pants nevertheless. Not good.
Will this acquisition work?, will it be for the good of GBG and their shareholders?. Don't know. However, the history bodes well. GBG has, for the years I have followed the company, been one of continued success and growth, organically and by acquisition. It's a massive acquisition though and of course there will be risks associated with it.
We have seen the share price fall back numerous times on the back of what on the face of it has been excellent results but the price has always recovered. Will it from here?. Well, probably, but back to near or over 900p...........well.........I think that will take longer since the new shares represent around 21% of the existing issued shares. With that in mind, doesn't that mean with todays' share price down at close of what?, 13%, that the market cap will be not far off the same as before the issue of the new shares once they are issued. The share price surely had to fall back because of all the new shares that will be issued and had it not then the market cap would suddenly have jumped by that 21% (please don't quote me on that as being 100% correct, it is getting late in the evening and my brain isn't as agile as it once was..I am of pre calculator days nevermind computers!!). That doesn't help those who had invested at higher prices and are not in a position to up their holdings, or want to. So, it can feel as Matthew C posted as though you have been shafted. Having said that, I would say it is far better than having had a profit warning because in all likely hood the share price would have fallen more and not recovered any and would be more likely to fall further. A kick in the pants, but I would remain overall cautiously optimistic.
As BT has posted, don' t do anything rash. GBG, is and has been an excellent company, and there are SO many poor ones out there.
GLA, stay well, stay safe
CM
Thanks for that appraisal and wishes Bigtosh. I am sure a solid business like this will soon gain support. It is sometimes necessary to spend to keep your customers. Still well in profit over a 4 to 6 year time scale. Perhaps the placing has been done in jurisdictions of most expansion for the group and will help with sales.
Found the article
https://www.thetwentiestrader.com/post/gb-group-annual-report-recent-results-investment-case
I managed to buy through Primary Bid last night, these are going straight in my ISA for a long-term hold. Having bought shares previously through Primary Bid it is a good platform for companies to pretty much crowd fund. If not already registered I would highly recommend. Clearly holders before today will be a little miffed however when you need to raise a few hundred million for a takeover/acquisition you need to offer a decent potential growth and margin to those institutions willing to invest. I imagine this will be sat back over £8 within the next 7-10 days and will soon recover today's discounted share price. That gives those new investors the potential of 15-20% return mid term and likely 10% short term.
Hi John,
am not going to use a link, if I haven't got a clue where am going. Could you kindly tell us which website the article is on and will find that way. Thanks
A surprising morning, having missed the action last night. Was hoping for some investment in AI and even Biometric identification. It looks like I got my wish. Was beginning to wonder if GBG had gone to sleep, therefore fortunate, as it turns out, to have sold some recently at over £9. Managed to get back the shares I sold, just below the 725p mark this morning.
The big question will be, have GBG got value for money with this buy? Could take a couple of years to find out. However, considering GBG's past record with acquisitions, long term holders have been well rewarded. That would lead to giving them the benefit of any doubt.
Live price currently 751.5p
Link to Acuant's offering for anyone interested.
https://www.acuant.com/solutions/
GLA
This article from April looks at all of GB Group's acquisitions over the last eight years. The Risks section is also worth a read: "Firstly, GBG's acquisition strategy creates risk [...] Whilst GBG has a pretty decent track record of creating growth through these acquisitions, we cannot rule out a large 'transformational' deal going wrong..." shorturl.at/bclH0
Morning All,
Sorry not been back for a while and it's great to hear from you both.
Glad you are both safe and well in these uncertain times. CM also very glad to hear that your 'fine filly' is also doing well. Never easy, as I know, but spend whatever time you can with her and, yes be comforted that she is getting the care she deserves. Nice to hear that you've acquired female company, watch those claws though, these young ladies can be very demanding (allegedly)!!. And stay away from the stress of this lot, particularly now that finances are on a better footing, which is also very good to hear. I have moved away from volatility (apart from GB of course) and prefer the quieter life these days.
Doze great to hear from you too, stay well. Just seen the trading update, which was excellent all round and like you I think the new Directorship is a real asset.
Just scanned the 3 latest RNS's and still trying to take it all in. Need another read.
Matt I can understand your feelings right now, I too (along with everyone else who held overnight) am down c17%. I didn't see the releases last night so didn't get a chance to 'get in' but it looks like it wouldn't have made much difference anyway. It was all over pretty much before it started.
This was always going to drop, with such a large discount offered, and I've no idea why it was so large, but I guess that was what was needed to get the placing done. I can see a decent upside here but will go through everything over the w/e before doing anything.
Sorry, have to go for now, back next week.
Don't do anything rash guys, and stay safe.
Best wishes All
BT
WTF
Thanks GB. My shares are down 17% and I didn’t get a slice of the action. I will be out at the first opportunity but it will be a while because I’ve been shafted.
This is a real catch, he is a great addition
Commenting on his appointment Bhav Singh added:
"I am delighted to be joining the GBG Board at such an exciting time for the Company as it continues its journey and growth trajectory. I look forward to serving on the Board in this time of growth and with such huge opportunities ahead."
£211m (projected full year revenue by me)revenue for a £1.8bn MC seems very optimistic so presume good prospcts and safe recurring profits command the 66.739 p/e
"Outlook
The Board remains positive about the long-term prospects for GBG. Our markets have positive structural growth drivers, we continue to invest in our market leading technology and data, enjoy long-term customer relationships and we have an outstanding global team. As a result, the Board can confirm that the outlook for the second half of FY22 remains in line with its expectations."
Best wishes to you too Bigtosh and CM; congrats on another successful trade with GBG by the looks of it. I may well try that with my Mothers holding, it seems a safe strategy. My dilemma would be keeping my hands off the pile of cash while waiting though. I hate this mismanagement and state pilfering of savings governments do nowadays and pivoting to renewables is something else that falls on the people. I hope increased accountability will improve governance post brexit, issues do seem to get a more transparent airing and voters will understand decisions taken more than before.
I use IG, CM, which I like as a company but am not allowed to spreadbet it otherwise I would. I have been on the AVCT rollercoaster CM, and it is still in the middle of the ride!
To the future, GBG investors.
Hello BT
How are you doing my friend?. Glad to see you are still posting. I am still around and just occasionally look in on this board to see what is going on and what news there is. I am very much on the sidelines these days. I only have the one investment, IGG. That is rather like GBG in its' movements. At times they seem to be neck and neck, then one falls back, the other rises, then they change place. Sometimes they move in the same direction at the same time, although neither has an effect on the other.
I spend far less time looking at shares these days. In hindsight I realise I spent far too much time in the past and wasted valuable time which should have been spent on other much more important things, like life generally. I got too absorbed in it all. As I have got "less young" my priorities have changed. I have become more settled, my financial position has improved with a small private pension, not paying into the pension scheme and having no mortgage and so I feel there is less need to go chasing rainbows!. I now have 2 young females in my life to look after too.....2 4 legged furry faces of the feline brand!.......something to come home to. Bit like you with the not so puppy puppies I guess.
I see Mrs. BT is keeping you in order..........and in jobs......no change there!. I expect everything is sorted now re the house etc.
RR is still hanging in there. She remembers the races of many years ago but doesn't jump anymore. In fact if she were to see a fence in front of her she wouldn't recognise it for what it was........doesn't always recognise me these days. Some may argue that is no bad thing!. Sad fact of getting older but at least she is being looked after now in the home.
The stock market is a strange old thing. Some things never change - companies share price can be hit after good results, some can rise on the mere hint of good news, some share prices are sheer speculative madness. I have little idea where the market is going - quite possibly sideways. Doesn't appear on the face of it to be much good news to drive it forward, potentially bad news to drive it down - ie debt ceiling needing to be raised in the US but the usual partisan arguments up to the last minute. Shortage of truck drivers affecting deliveries of all sorts leading to shortages leading to higher prices, danger of inflation, may lead to higher interest rates, higher NI contributions, less spending money etc. etc. Continued fall out from Brexit. Then we have a PM who in front of the United Nations (was it?) who quotes Kermit the bleeding frog for Gods' sake!......how embarrassing is that!. Most of them probably don't know who Kermit was!. Well Boris he was a stuffed toy puppet!.......bit like yourself mate, you even look like one!. One muppet in charge of many. Heaven help us. I suppose we get what we voted for (although I didn't).
Good luck all and regards
CM
Hi Qd,
Hope all is well with you and yours.
We certainly do cycle up and down, as you say, but like you I have no doubts about the longer term prospects here. I knew this company 20 or more years ago before it floated on AIM and was impressed then with Richard Laws and the (very small) team that he had. He's now retired/moved on and we have a much more 'Corporate' CEO in Chris Clark, which is exactly what we need as the MCap now approaches £2bill. It was very relevant then and has become so much more relevant now in this increasingly digitised world.
Lots of folks chasing quantum computing and the 'quantum internet', which could really change the game but they are both fraught with technical/scaling issues and you will always need to verify who you are talking to and/or doing business with so I don't see anything on the horizon just yet to rock this boat.
Yes, I bought in at 34p ish and sold some when it hit 75p, (what an nutjob!!!) and more on the way up but you do what you do and you can't go back. This share has basically returned my investment every year. It hasn't been linear all the way but overall that's where we are. I still hold a fair few and it does help the old retirement income now I don't have a nice salary cheque each month. I do get a decent lie in though.....when Mrs BT's makes the morning tea....which I confess isn't that often!
I keep a float and whilst I only look in once a week or so I sold those shares at c£9.35/£9.40 and will now wait for it to fall back to somewhere around £8.30 or maybe a bit below and buy back in. The low to high cycle can take a couple of months and I don't try to hit the top and bottom but get as close as I can. I've done this 5 or 6 times now and am very happy with the result.
Everyone has their own goals and investment plans and I don't recommend this to anyone but it works for me.
Mrs BT having problems planting tomatoes (apparently), so I'm needed elsewhere. Qd stay safe my friend and good luck in all of your endeavours,
Regards
BT
CM be great to hear from you if when you have a moment. Thinking of you and hope you (& RR) too are safe and well.
Hi BT.
Sorry, I didn't see your very helpful post until now. When I saw it I was surprised, I had absolutely no memory of posting that! However I did top up then. I don't generally trade, just sell into what seems to be a spike occasionally, and use it to top up something that's languishing for no obvious reason. Seldom a shortage of candidates for that!
It certainly does seem to have cycled up and down, especially this year, but the long term is such a lovely graph! Smooth out the noise and it's just a steady rise - up over 20X in 10 years. 9p in September 2001: if you had it and held it for the full 20 years that's a 100 bagger. And yet there are just a few old faithfuls on the BB.
Unless in a few years time quantum computers completely change the ball game I can't see the need for these services decreasing for a long time yet. Plus it's AIM so hopefully good if I pop my clogs: once the 2 years are up. An AIM share you can just leave to grow... famous last words!! Lol.
Hope you and Mrs BT are fully recovered now. Thanks for your help.