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Testing the uptrend that has been in place since November. If this goes to 225p, as I expect, it will be a decent trade.
Yes i've bailed the last of mine, 5 yr high point coupled with geo political tension and a decent profit makes it right for me.
Do you all think that in the extremely unlikely event that the plant were to fall into Russian control that business would still carry on normalyl like other plants we invest in Russia?
Hi Tygarreg!
When the Russians took over Crimea in 2012, a lot of the bigger businesses changed hands - mostly through spurious court cases, occasionally through armed men physically taking over the company's offices. Some owners did survive - but mostly those who had openly declared their allegiance to Russia pre-invasion.
The same thing happened in Donetsk and Luhansk - though with more outright criminality mixed in there.
I still think the likelihood is that all this blows over, or that any fighting is limited to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. But if the Russians do invade Ukraine in force, then I'd expect that they'd easily win the resultant war, and also that FXPO would lose control of their assets in Ukraine. Most likely some Kremlin-friendly oligarch will end up owning them after a rigged court case which proves that the Swiss parent company (FXPO) never owned them properly in the first place.
I agree, very unlikely but if it did happen fxpo wouldn’t as this business keep any assets. It’s like the old days in Britain where the king rewards the people who help with land. Putin would carve up any value to people who protected him, nothing but. There would be no way back for investors like us in any way. Putin would walk away with the lot. Hence how do you value risk against value here?
I think he’ll push and test and I think they push back and he’ll stop. Putin is too smart to let this escalate but the usa will be there to support. They might not have troops on the ground but they can fly in all sorts from around the world pretty quickly to demonstrate.
Yes i think FXPO will prob not be greatly affected too but the market hates these kind of uncertainces. Being right (about FXPO) doesn't matter as much as what everyone else is worrying about in these situations...
I am not 100% sure, but seem to remember reading somewhere that on the 19th April, there is scheduled a meting between countries (Germany, Russia, France, USA, Turkey....not sure) that oversee the cease fire between Russian separatist rebels and Ukrainian army back in 2014. If this is the case it could poove a turning point...
Do you all think that in the extremely unlikely event that the plant were to fall into Russian control that business would still carry on normalyl like other plants we invest in Russia?
Tygarreg that is a good question.
It doesn't necessarily mean that if Russia take over Poltava and Fxpo export port, that Fxpo would end up in some Russian Oligarch or the Russian state. There are many Russian territory companies traded in Uk exchange. Highland Gold Mining was one...I think now is gone private and funny enough it was valued much higher than many other peers.... The problem lies on the many uncertainties and the negative news flow that occur if Russia was to make a military action like invade Ukraine. In this case I could see the price of Fxpo to halve if things turn for the worst...and even if and when Fxpo would maintain its autonomy and integrity as a private company as before, I suspect the sp will take its time to recover to previous levels....The best case scenario would be a meeting between leaders USA and Russia included to deescalate the situation. This could only happen if there is a will and the motivation from the protagonist. For start one should be Ukraine it self which in my book doesn't appear to have any intention to take the conciliatory stance toward Russian...this is not a good thing.
We all know the value in this share and cash in the business so I’m sure we will watch like a hawk and review before to step.
If the sp drops due to Russia but iron ore prices don’t then the divi and yields will I would suspect be huge.