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The company has already stated they have stronger volume and growth this year. The biggest hurdle they had was not being able to use the seaports for exports. These exports resumed this year thanks to the safe corridor in the Black Sea. The issue surrounding the delay is the 20 year old legal case which pops up every so often, already been kicked out once by the Supreme court but someone fancied having another bash. Production and volume is obviously going to be a lot lot higher for Q1 as they have been utilizing another pellitizer thanks to being able to ship via the Black Sea as well as seeing an increase in rail transportation and selling through their stock piles thanks to improved transport. Personally I'm bullish as fook.
You have to realise this is now sub 50p a share with just a £270m market cap, Over 100m in the bank and no debt, adapting to every situation thrown at it. Almost paid out a dividend thats would now be worth a very sensible %! I'm confident divi will be reinstated. Same operational situation at 120p. My money is on seeing a big move on the April update.
Which means it has a PE ratio of about 0.31 of 2021 earnings. Ridiculously cheap. Is this a value play or a value trap though? I'm confident Q1 production report is going to be positive. The legal issues are not going to go away however. The Ukrainian government are going to want to get Zhevago's share of the business one way or another. He'd (we'd) be best of if he did some kind of deal. Will the minority share holder get screwed over in the process? Which is often the case.
I like your bullishness however am struggling to share it, because until the prelims are out the whole spectre of the lack of accounts sign off is paramount. The Ukraine govt has been milking this co with all sorts of tricks and wheezes, it is not a situation that has any clarity.
I obviously see your view. FXPO have given 3.3billion to Ukraine during its time. They can't have it both ways. In some respects I hope they do screw it over, it will finally get me out of their corner. Shouldnt mess about with foreign companies when you have your begging bowl out 24/7. FXPO have paid their dues and that should be recognised. You would think the country officials would support the generation of tax. Anyway just over a week to go :)
Agree on a deal Alex, would give the market certainty and it's not as if Fxpo can't afford it.
I don't comment on here much, but I've been in and out of FXPO for about 5 years. On the face of it a deal looks like a good idea, but IMO would be akin to paying a ransom - you then set a precedent and you're then potentially easy pickings in the future. If you think you're on the right side of the law, then fight it as high as you can in the court system. If Ukraine and their judicial system goes down the corruption road then they will shoot themselves in the foot for all the foreign investment needed to rebuild their country after this war.
When said deal I meant Zhevago not FXPO. The Ukrainian government are going to get his share one way or another. If he did a deal he could maybe walk away with something as opposed to nothing, and avoid jail time. Maybe. Hiding in another country and refusing to face the music only implies guilt. Not that I know much about these things. He’s unlikely to want to give up the billionaire life style but other Ukrainian oligarchs are doing jail time and lost their assets.
Fair comments. Zhevago prob doesn't trust the government enough to come forward but he's worth well north of a billion so this wouldn't be that much of a knock to his lifestyle assuming money is all they want from him. @TwoCents, you're right about setting a precedent, but it may be worth it to get rid of the problem - not suggesting paying anywhere near the full amount tho. I don't think the market is too bothered about it, when it came back into the spotlight a couple of months back via RNS it only knocked 4p off the share price (87p down to 83p roughly) hence I think we are in extremely oversold territory now. Look how much money FXPO are able to make when their exports are not choked or bottlenecked. While they won't be shipping as much as they were via the black sea, they are now able to reach markets they haven't been able to get to properly for 2 years, £££.
The judge that cleared FXPO in the last Supreme Court case:
https://ukranews.com/en/news/998341-supreme-court-judge-kniaziev-included-in-register-of-corrupt-officials
Fxpo seems to be leaving publication final results very late which I thought are due 4 months after year end at the latest. It looks like it has got two weeks from today to get them out or would appear to face suspension by the fca listing rules. What are the chances it will succeed in doing so?
If they have to be out within 4 months then thats what they'll have to do.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/exclusive-russia-ukraine-black-sea-shipping-deal-was-almost-reached-last-month-sources-say/ar-BB1lFnYG?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=f913967113484235b8dabb0c31fc6b28&ei=60
A company is required to publish its annual financial report within four months of the year end date, the audited financial statements need to be prepared in accordance with an applicable accounting standard (International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) or an equivalent standard). The half- yearly financial statement must be issued within three months after the end of the period to which it relates.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/resources/raise-finance-resources?tab=main-market&accordionId=0-7b056b55-1e0f-4dfd-a5a9-62cb18252912
It’s FXPOs continuing obligation under LR9 to publish. What they need to publish is under DTR4.
If they fail, then then the circumstances the FCA will suspend are in LR5, specifically LR5.1.2(2)
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/LR/5/?view=chapter
I see there is a production report due beforehand so perhaps they will update the market with their intentions for FY results at that time.
No obligation to release 2023 results before Q1 update then?
No.
Fxpo can publish at any time within the 4 month period but obligation is to do so before the period is up.
Its clear the government is going after Zhevago stake in FXPO
" Its clear the government is going after Zhevago stake in FXPO"
Of course, everyone has known that for years , since the the Govt Deposit Guarantee Fund said it had state losses of UAH 15.5 billion as a result of bailing out Bank Finance and Credit Customers when it went bankrupt..
..They blame Zhevago and want that money back.... and they get very frustrated that they cant get it , even to the point of arresting the mine manager and holding him for months in desperation
But surely if they were going to just seize his share of FXPO assets they would have done that by now?
" But surely if they were going to just seize his share of FXPO assets they would have done that by now? "
just seizing them would be against International Law , ...if... you haven't had a proper trial or judicial process to prove you had the right to do so..
and that is where the problem lies.... unless you can create some sham trial judgement from the Supreme Court to "show" you have the right to seize something ...
And even if they do they should be seizing his share through the London courts. Which would result in a transfer of ownership.
Analyst predicting 5mt for 2024. Not very optimistic.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2024/04/18/ferrexpo-planning-production-rebound/
Any views on next weeks Q1 production report?
Last year was an average of around 1 million tonnes per quarter. Pre war around 3 million tonnes per quarter. The analyst Ben Davies is predicting 2024 production back up to 5 million tonnes per annum. Which makes around 1.25 million tonnes per quarter.
Having monitored the maritime traffic going into port the cape size vessels have only started going into port over the last month. So that's unlikely to filter through until Q2. I'm thinking anything over 1.5 million tonnes for Q1 is going to be a Brucie. Q2 has the potential to be a lot better providing there aren't any major catastrophises. Such as maritime traffic being shut down again, electricity shortages etc.
1,9 mln 1 Q