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I think Fres investors are very cautious ahead of production figures tomorrow. If we are low end or below of Q3 forecast numbers this will drop big time but if we do well, it may rise into the 1300s in the coming 2 weeks. What's everyone guess.
Carve I agree with you. I think a few people I know were tempted to buy some more but have held of just in case. I a more confident that Poly will have a better Q results on Friday as long as the PMs hold steady till then. Jobs report on Thursday.
Yep as good as can have been expected and the ship appears to be righting? With the current price of precious metals bottom line should be improved? I have been adding and sitting on a substantial loss but happy with progress.
Whats your % loss atm, i am down 12%!!!
Yet share price drops 4% - par for the course I guess!
Increasing now circa 15% but am not bailing out.
Me too staying loyal lth.
I think the write up by alliance news is totally inaccurate and slanted to **** off figures which as you say are fine, it is unuusal too to have such a detailed view on this company never seen such a page on good figures.
see what the FED does later which might lend support to Gold and Silver. I am confident that the final year numbers will be very good for FRES.
being played by market makers
Stay the course friends
PMs will have their day when these fiat currencies can be debased no more
Back to june prices anyone would think gold had crashed today
Don’t get it but I have taken advantage of the drop to add a few.
I've been looking in to Fres and this drop seems overdone today; obv questions anything in background and is there further to go? As ever timing of entry is crucial. Will keep watching. Good luck all
Clearly over done. Fair enough all pMs down heavily even poly but hopefully if FED give the right signal that may support PMs even more. Guess we have to wait and see later. Next week this might be back to 11 who knows
There are some very worrying levels of delusion on this thread...This seemingly instinctive urge to buy every dip and double down weekly by FRES bulls as the knife falls further is bizarre to witness. Don't kid yourself that everything we thought we knew about monetary policy and financial markets holds true today.
Unprecedented new money creation and debt monetisation coupled with fiscal stimulus has been unleashed globally at levels we previously NEVER could have imagined possible. Yet nearly 12 months after that began, gold is now below 2011's high and silver is just 50% of 2011's high. Interesting chart on Kitco showing gold price pattern in 2020 pretty much mirrored 2011, we all know what happened after that...
PM miners in general over the last year (and particularly in the last 6 months except First Majestic) have been bitterly disappointing considering the context whilst global equities (particularly tech) and crypto continue to grind upwards whilst you're left languishing.
The problem with the PM cult is they have a perennial belief that 'the big one' is always just around the corner and 'this time it's different'. Peter Schiff is the most egregious example of this although on a personal level I do quite like him.
I genuinely have no personal axe to grind with FRES, my entry prices were principally sub-750 and exits around 1240 but some people on this thread need a real wake-up call. If you truly are committed to the belief of silver going parabolic in the future then you'd be far better off with First Majestic and physical.
At what level are you a buyer perma.bear
My entry prices were principally sub-750 and I completely exited 1220-1240 earlier this month.
I used most of the proceeds from FRES sale to load up on First Majestic a few weeks ago.
Permabear, call it delusion or calculated risk. I have just bought 3075 shares at 971p. I spent quite a bit of time reading and re reading the RNS as well as number crunching so below are the results but I will first answer your point about 2011 peak gold price - You got your analysis wrong with the timing in that the 2011 peak happened a full 2 and a half year after financial crisis and the associated money printing. The gold price went up 250% back then to the peak at 2011. If you took march 2020 gold low of $1450 and add 250%, it would take it to $3625 to happen in Aug 2022! A famous song went: "It's only just begun...."
From the RNS, and plugging in the forecast 2021 production and using gold and silver price range of 1750-2000 and 20-27, I get a mid point revenue of $2.65 billion. This is 25% more than 2019 revenue. I estimate that the 2020 revenue will be at $2.4 billion using gold of $1700 and $20 silver for FY20. This is still some 13% more than 2019.
Also, reading the RNS carefully, it sounds to me like they are being ultra conservative with the production figures due to the uncertainty of covid but looking at the pattern of Q4 production I think they are deliberately under promising. We know that there is a light at the end of the tunnel with covid and they seem to be managing it well regardless so I would be on this to be a good recovery play riding on waves of stimulus pumped PM price rise. $3625 gold in 2022 anyone?
carvegber - you are so right - revenue when announced should be nicely up and then we will fly. So keep buying at sub 1000p.
Another point to note is that the increase in revenue for 2020 of $300m over 2019 will bring the net profits of 2020 close to the 2016/17 levels when this rose to 2000p. We got hit with high capex in 2018, 19 and 20 which eroded cash but we are out of that now. Just the market hasn't picked up on it yet.
Or the market has picked up on something that you haven't...An 11% intraday plunge from a supposedly 'neutral RNS' isn't just MM and spivs toying FRES around. I suspect there are some more nasty surprises to come.
If there is a hidden surprise I haven't yet seen, then my £30,000 bet would just have gone sour. Let's see in March.
Meantime I need the PM prices to get a move on but in reality, I suspect it will track sideways until march.
Wow - just look at the MM hyenas taking FRES apart...13% down now just off the back of an RNS report. You really want to keep a stock like this as a hold in your retirement portfolio?