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Kmj -- Sheesh -- I am going to check my security cameras -- just to see how you were able to verify that I wet the bed the other night (just after my heart attack -- LOL).
Here is the Cavendish update:
A Defining Moment for the Beetaloo: The SS-1H well achieved IP30 and IP60 rates of 6.4MMscf/d and 6.0MMscf/d, respectively (normalised over 1,000m), significantly exceeding pre-drill expectations and the 3.0MMscf/d IP30 rate required to progress the sanctioning of the proposed 40MMscf/d Pilot Project at Shenandoah South. The SS-1H flow rate is the highest tested in the Beetaloo Basin to date, and combined with the geological data gathered, puts Shenandoah South on par with the most prolific shale gas basins in the US. The IP60 exit rate trajectory show a steady, low decline type-curve (c2.8MMscf/d) and downhole pressure implying a highly effective frack that is connected to a sizeable volume of gas. The SS-1H well is planned to be flow tested until IP90 to allow for an assessment of the well’s 20 year estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) with results expected in late April 2024. -
SS-1H Results on par with the Prolific US Shale Gas Basins: Results from the SS-1H well have confirmed the similarity between the Middle Velkerri B Shale and the Marcellus shale dry gas window – one of the world’s most prolific shale gas basins. Most importantly, the pore pressure gradient for SS-1H is consistent with the core Marcellus, highlighting the ability to extract gas from the shale formation. -
Advancing to a 40MMscf/d Pilot Project: Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) on the proposed 40MMscf/d Pilot Project continues, with FID expected in mid-2024. The Pilot Project is expected to consist of six, 10,000ft horizontal wells drilled from the same well pad 4km to the north of the SS1H well. Two wells will be drilled and fracked in 2024, with a further four wells in 2025. A gas processing plant will be connected via infield gas gathering lines to a 35km export pipeline, connected to the Amadeus Gas Pipeline. While first gas is targeted for H1/26, commerciality will be further proven by the end of 2024, once the initial two production wells are fracked and flow tested. -
Significant US Expertise and Capital: To date, >US$115m has been invested across the Beetaloo by Bryan Sheffield, the founder, and former CEO of Parsley Energy. H&P, a drilling industry leader has imported a 2,000HP rig into the Beetaloo, which is expected to support a material reduction in drilling times and costs. Operator, Tamboran also has a right of first refusal until 2033 on future drilling rigs. Tamboran has also signed a strategic partnership with Liberty energy to import a modern frac fleet to the Beetaloo in 2024 for a stimulation campaign with leading operational and subsurface engineering expertise, reducing delays mobilising equipment, increasing efficiencies, and reducing costs.
I think there are a number of people close enough to call a spade a spade.
Speaking for myself, and to keep things in perspective, I am once again reminded of a very funny quote (and YouTube video) by the late comedian George Carlin: "It's a Big Club and You Ain't In It!...". 'Nuf said.
My average holding price of FOLGF is at US $0.18 per share. If and when Falcon sells, AND IF I can come out above that level, I'll consider myself fortunate.
To help ease the pain, I think I'll again go back and listen to George Carlin's YouTube video, "It's a Big Club and You Ain't In It!...". GLTA
A post whining about the whining! One thing I will agree with you on is that no one on this board is an expert and knows what's going to happen- everyone here is guessing.
alright, ok, are all the whiners finished. . . of course, finished without in any way offering the better deal, terms, actions poq/bod could have should have taken to get the necessary funding to participate in the upcoming and hugely important 2 wells in the pilot?! . . . this board is truly one massive amateur sideshow - even the heralded newtofo wets his bed at the slightest hint of seemingly unfavorable news, sorry newtofo, and that should get a "sheesh" sent my way. . .. have appreciated over the years many of the posts, but it's now time for the genuine professional/credible commentary to take hold and the only place i see that is in the analysts'/experts' reports/notes, etc., even if they have some bias one way or another. tennyson's comment on the pilot participation noted there would still need be a raise to participate. anyone with half a brain knew there was doing to be this raise, and yes, it wasn't great bc our sp is ridiculously undervalued, always has been but for after the first amungee results and then that go taken down by the moratorium, etc. and it just never has rebounded. but that was the one stretch where the market actually was correctly, more or less, valuing the stock. . . what matters now is, assuming repeated results to the sshi, how will that affect our true valuation in regards to what fog can legitimately hold out as the price to begin negotiations and then let them begin and see where we end up! i would love to see cavendish's note, i can't get access bc based in the u.s. . . unlike the amateurs on this board - including myself - it's these professional who are going to determine valuation and negotiations parameters now and going forward! i am going to continue to watch this board for updates and factual info but all the whining, ****ging, and outright bs is hopefully filtered or certainly not paid attention to. . . as always, gla, kmg
So Tamboran/Falcon announced a 500 frac job and everyone was saying that it needed to be at least a 1000 job.
But it proved out that the frac would work with the new frac solution they came up with at the cheaper price.
However the industry doesn't think it still proves out.
The Deal by (BS) was made to simply make it through the two 3000 frac jobs this year.
As tda4falcon so aptly stated "I could pick up shares at around 9 cents today and make 230% on my money."
However, I'm too heavily invested in this stock to pick up more at this point and time.
I think that since Thomas Layman, a Falcon Director and geologist, also bought shares -- he feels it is a good investment. I feel better with that positive endorsement. He has access to more data than I have.
Yes, like many others I have been invested in this for too long and feel like dropping a few shares for a good bourbon.
If they prove out the sp will rise and then a buyout will be negotiated.
We already know the buyer -- and unless another party comes in and bids much higher -- it will merge all three companies.
My goal is to hang out for the year and see what happens.
I'm not too happy with it all but cheap Jack Daniels helps.
May have to switch to Irish Whiskey and see if that mojo magic helps us out.
Hang in there -- too much potential and no reward yet. But potential is there.
Think about it -- you buy out Empire to get a processing facility that has excess capacity to Empire's needs and Tamboran and Falcon for the better acreage potential. And then build your own local pipeline to the processing plant and by 2025 you are selling gas and continue to drill. Someone (BS) is putting the pieces together and providing the initial funding.
Even if he (BS) doesn't get it all -- he will make a windfall profit with a different buyout.
Def a head scratcher. We all knew we had to raise money. I dont understand this deal though.
Sad to see this deal you all, many have been invested for a very long time.
I'm reminded of POQ, answer when I asked him about his technical team (he did subsequently introduce a few faces):
"We don't need a technical team"
Want to see if POQ has his happy face at tge AGM. What a complete disaster of a deal. Nice to see that his exit package got bumped up before this raise. Truly don't understand those royalty deals. They make no sense.
Or......looking at what I would say is a rock-bottom/worst case scenario future low buyout price (30 cents?), I could pick up shares at around 9 cents today and make 230% on my money. Glass is always half full my friends........even when drinking a warm Irish beer.
6p nice work, could be a bottom as I can only see 6.20 on this website from today
60M+ shares issued and not quite a 1/3 to BS- who now owns over 10pct of the co. Apparently cavendish feels this, along w the royalties, is substantial dilution since they lowered their target price 13.5pct. POQ has a lot of questions to answer at the annual mtg but my opinion is just "GET THE SALE DONE".
Why not do the raise Stellar result day, up 15% or whatever, if POQ didn’t know about the raise then he should have done and if he did know about the raise that worries me. Phillip if you read theses boards you should explain the decisions so we could as a group understand better, Because at the monument there’s a lot of confusion here. Down another 4% as I write this. Did Sheffield buy all the shares?
RNS 6p
Cenkos (now Cavendish) target price reduced to 32p (from 37p) in their latest broker note published today.
Was there any reason why shareholders were not given an option to buy any shares?
Atb,
Northern
Well many are wondering about this I am too. We got a big results with the recent news so why not a big share price rise first followed by a financing.. This makes no sense. Some have posted with their frustrations and i totally understand. I think POQ has got a great deal to answer for and so does the bod.Just hurray up and sell the co POQ so we can get on our way...
Newtofo!
So glad your back - and you've recovered from your heart attack!
You are right: I'm waiting to pick up some Falcons - but at lower prices. :-)
Have a great weekend!
Marsh
Wow, my autocorrect chose some interesting words there instead of what I thought I was typing!
Big companies buy when the first move is made. They would be buying with risk attached, but this is always the case. How much more with the next wells derisk it? Perhaps enough to get a decent price. For me it looks like the rise is enough to cover current plans, but not much more, so I can only assume the sale will hit soon after.
What this raise and ORRI does do is protect us from being squashed out of the game financially during the upcoming wells and pilot. This is why this raise was done now. In this game when you allow your piggyback to get too low the other companies watch you die slowly and get your stuff cheap. For me this is about defending Falcon's ability to exist. For me I'm happy with this raise for giving away very little when you work out the percentages. Its quite something that they are holding out for 22.5% in the remaining area. I wonder if they are leaving that out of it for now if they a worried they Tambo won't last the full game.
Frack me. Thanks for responding. I am referring to the 130+M shares they say they can issue. (And companies tend to issue as much as they can) Yes. The cash amount is very small but 130M shares is more than 10pct of the co. That pie in the sky $1/share number some have been dreaming about is now only $.90/share more or less.
I understand you feel we will have "proven" the ground after the next two wells but will any real buyer? That was supposed to happen w the last well. What is someone buying? 5pct of these wells? The future wells which may be years down the line? That's assuming Tam can raise enough money to go forward. Or will BS take another huge piece of Tam? Is he currently slowly buying Falcon? What is to stop BS from taking FOG private? Us? Just so many questions and I'd like to see some alternatives here from those that still feel this is a 6-7 bagger. Frankly I'd take a double and feel lucky.
Longknife not sure your maths is correct there. 3.6 million pounds at a 6p price is 60m shares or about 6% of the free float. It's defo a small raise. Not worth raising any less, probably the smallest raise that could be done to be fair. If you are saying it's not a great time to raise that's another point.
I'd say we'll be sold by then because we'll have proved 2 3km wells (hopefully) and a heap of the directors options expire early the next year
Hey Marsh -- my heart attack was yesterday morning when I read the press release -- but starting to feel a tiny a bit better today after digesting this latest bit of bad news on our wounded bird -- sheesh. A bit surprised that Falcon hasn't dropped even further on the TSX -- just so you can get your stink bid filled -- LOL.
There were two disappointments with this latest press release -- with the 6P price on the extra 133 million share dilution being only slightly worse than having to give Sheffield (and most likely Liberty) another almost 2% ORRI over all of Falcon's three permits. The 6% ORRI over the 51,000 acre block surrounding the new SSH2/SSH3 wells was not too disappointing -- as we have already dropped down to only a 5% interest in that block anyway -- so selling BS that 6% ORRI interest for the extra cash infusion seemed to make good sense. However, the extra almost 2% over all the remaining four million acres was a bit more disappointing, but as Frackme clearly stated -- the gas has to flow in very large volumes before BS (and now to a very small degree -- Liberty, I think) will ever see any true benefit for their addition of $millions in new Falcon operating funds.
The 6P price was a much bigger shock -- especially given the stellar flow rates on the 30 day, 60 day, and next Friday the 90 day flows!! It is almost impossible to imagine what the punters that bought into the 25P funding 10 years ago think about this price point of 6P???
The only good news that I can see, (after my heart attack medicine finally kicked in :-) -- is that Falcon is now funded right through the next two full length horizontals, including the 300 sq. km of seismic, and all ancillary costs. While a private placement at 8P would have felt better -- the difference is only about an extra 33 million shares added to the total float or approximately a 3% increase -- which is disappointing but maybe necessary to get the deal done.
Now that Falcon is funded through the next two 3km horizontals -- my only real concern through to next year -- is when do we finally hear from Tamboran about their US listing and their critically important funding raise to cover Tambo's 47.5% of the next two very expensive 3km horizontals -- (along with all the seismic and ancillary costs)??
P.S. -- if anyone thinks that Falcon's dilution of 133 million shares was extreme -- just wait to see how many billions of Tambo shares are out there when their next funding is complete!!!
No result of the book build by 5pm Friday .