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Gonoles,
To me that's our best hope. That BS tries to come in w a lowball offer and it sparks several interested parties to do their own bidding. There are probably several people saying "hey let's let TMB and BS prove up these wells and we'll sit and wait". That's why I think when his lowball offer comes in- if it's the only one, the shareholders will jump on it. A double at this time would look pretty good. While 3-5 more years isn't the end of the world, when I look at the oppty cost of the cash I've had tied up for 7,8,9 years....
Yeah I'd be surprised if it hadn't been bought by Christmas 2025 if the two wells this year are decent.
I think BS will buy it way before then to keep his price down. He knows the prize and I'm sure he has the funding to do it. If POQ is busy talking on the side to other suitors which we won't find out unless someone else jumps in -- either way I see this stock going up over time. Been in for almost 20 years -- so I can still wait, but think it will come sooner than later to keep BS price down.
Wet, unfortunately, I and a few others have been saying this for awhile. There is no reason for anyone to buy FOG anytime soon. I also think that 27-28 is probably on the early side. There is no reason to buy FOG until it is producing revenue. We can sit here and say someone may want a piece of it just to control the gas down the line and is willing to pay for it now. Maybe that will happen- but I doubt it. Add into the issues that in 4-5 years the social and political landscape may be entirely different. When that lowball offer from BS comes in (if it does), it's going to look very good to long term shareholders. I said that before the results of the last well came in that I was hoping to cut my holdings by about half- good or bad. I haven't, because the stock price has been so pitiful. I wish I had sold at $.16 obviously but hindsight and all that. As someone pointed out, it's true I don't know who may be interested- that maybe there are many. Given the stock price and the volume however, I doubt many believe that.
Golones: The problem I foresee with the Beetaloo is that we are going to be stuck in a holding pattern before we will receive an offer many of us will find acceptable. It's a bit of the 'cart before the horse' issue. Tamboran's production date is early 2026 - that is soon after the first two pilot wells are to be drilled. That gas will be going into the Amadeus pipeline and if memory serves me well, Tamboran has contracted a 40 mmcf/d take or pay contract with the pipeline. Doing an AI search on Amadeus Pipeline indicates that currently there is no excess capacity - I assume 'no excess capacity' allows for the contracted 40 mmcf/d but the question is just how much excess capacity above the 40 mmcf/d might there be? The pipeline's total capacity is only about 165 - 175 mmcf/d which isn't that large. The point I am getting at is that Tamboran will likely be holding up on drilling the SS5H, SS6H, SS7H wells. The SS4H will likely be drilled sometime in 2026 to backfill Tamboran's 40 mmcf/d contract as there will be a typical Marcellus decline curve over the first 6-8 months of these first two wells. Tamboran doesn't have the funds available nor the inclination to punch holes in the ground without a market for its production. Tamboran is correctly informing the market of first production in 2026, but in typical Tamboran fashion, they fail to tell the market the 'rest of the story'.
With all this said, any 2025/2026 offers for Falcon will be based on the next two-three wells and not the full 6 well pilot program. That's not saying an offer can't come at any time, but IMO, the big guys are not buying into something that is not well proven - they would rather pay-up when the field is better proven/understood.
From my understanding, the new APA proposed pipeline hasn't even begun permitting. Building a large enough capacity line to handle even the next 10 years production is going to be a major project and cost billions of dollars. We could be looking at 2027 - 2028 before that might be completed.
Bottom line is that to receive the price many of us want, we might be looking at a lot more patience - what's three more years at this point - assuming I'm still around :^) IMO, Falcon owes it to its stockholders to shoot straight on the current timeline on a proposed sale. No one can predict with certainty when a legit offer might be received, but I believe if we stockholders might potentially be looking at 2027 or 2028 before a sale, then the stockholders need to understand this as a possibility.
GLA
Although I firmly believe the Sheffield family is putting a lot of money and effort to control everything. I also feel that others are looking at what is happening in the area, and when push comes to shove -- others may look at pulling the trigger too.
This is the time to just sit back and let the cards play out. Long term -- someone will see the value as the next two wells start to prove out the value.
Although I have earned my money from oil and gas all my life, FOG is a very bitter lesson for me that has lasted an infinitely long ~15 years since entering the Beetaloo and will last a few more years. I estimate that a total of $1 billion will be invested before the first molecule of natural gas is sold from the beetaloo. This long pay back time is a torture for most of us here. At the moment I see the risk that Mr. Philip O'Quigley jeopardizes the long-awaited financial success for the long time share holders by his inactivity, not communicating the strategy for monetizing and perhaps allowing BS (who is a great oil man) to rip off long term FOG`s share holders.
....
The Beetaloo is in north-central Australia and underlies some 7 million acres of outback flanked on its northwestern corner by Daly Waters, a town on Australia’s 1,900-mile Highway 1 that stretches from Darwin to Adelaide.
U.S. Shale-catters to IPO Australian Shale Explorer on NYSE
Tamboran Resources’ Beetaloo Basin leasehold includes its and prior explorers’ appraisal wells. (Source: Tamboran Resources)
In several decades of exploration, including in 2015 by the late Chesapeake Energy Corp. co-founder Aubrey McClendon, explorers have invested more than $600 million in testing the Beetaloo’s Middle Velkerri B Formation that Tamboran has found to resemble the Marcellus Shale in its geophysical properties, according to the S-1.
The target is at more than 6,000 feet.
Tamboran has drilled six appraisal wells in the leasehold, including two early wells with a partner at the time, Santos Ltd.
Tamboran currently owns the six wells. They are shut in, awaiting gathering to connect to big pipe that travels alongside Highway 1, operated by Australia-based pipe and electric power company APA Group (not related to U.S.-based APA Corp., the owner of Apache Corp.).
Tamboran expects takeaway will be up to 2 Bcf/d from its leasehold upon full field development.
Including tests by others, 21 wells have been drilled through the Middle Velkerri Formation, according to the S-1.
In addition to Stoneburner, board members include Fred Barrett, co-founder and former CEO of U.S. tight-rock explorer Bill Barrett Corp.
Tamboran management includes Faron Thibodeaux, COO, who was Australia manager for Apache Corp. before Apache sold its Australian business in 2015.
Its CEO is Joel Riddle, who was previously with offshore explorer Cobalt International Energy.
Joint book-running managers for the IPO are BofA Securities, Citigroup and RBC Capital Markets. Co-managers are Johnson Rice & Co. and Piper Sandler.
Australia United States Marcellus Eagle Ford Haynesville
ASX: TBN
Tamboran Resources Ltd.
NYSE: PXD
Pioneer Natural Resources Co.
269.62 +38.2%
NYSE: XOM
Exxon Mobil Corp.
116 +10.55%
NYSE: LBRT
Liberty Energy Inc.
21.64 +80.25%
NYSE: HP
Helmerich & Payne Inc.
38.47 +25.45%
Https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/us-shale-catters-ipo-australian-shale-explorer-nyse-209061
EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION
U.S. Shale-catters to IPO Australian Shale Explorer on NYSE
Tamboran Resources Corp. is majority owned by Permian wildcatter Bryan Sheffield and chaired by Haynesville and Eagle Ford discovery co-leader Stoneburner.
Nissa Darbonne
Oil and Gas Investor
Sat, 05/04/2024 - 02:08 PM
U.S. Shale-catters to IPO Australian Shale Explorer on NYSE
Tamboran Resources Corp. is majority owned by Permian wildcatter Bryan Sheffield and chaired by Haynesville and Eagle Ford discovery co-leader Stoneburner. (Source: Shutterstock.com, Tamboran)
U.S. shale-catters, chaired by the Haynesville and Eagle Ford shale discoveries’ co-leader Stoneburner, have filed an S-1 for an IPO of Australian shale-gas explorer Tamboran Resources Corp.
U.S. Shale-catters to IPO Australian Shale Explorer on NYSE
Stoneburner (Source: Tamboran)
The group plans to trade on the New York Stock Exchange as TBN, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. The S-1 did not include an estimate of the total funds to be raised or the price-per-share range.
Australia-listed Tamboran’s (ASX: TBN) largest shareholder is Bryan Sheffield, founder of Permian shale developer Parsley Energy Inc., which he sold to Pioneer Natural Resources in 2021 for $7.6 billion.
Pioneer was bought by Exxon Mobil Corp. last week for $59.5 billion in stock.
Stoneburner, a career geologist, co-led Petrohawk Energy Corp. in the early days of leasehold capture and delineating the shale-gas Haynesville play in northwestern Louisiana, beginning in late 2007.
In 2008, Petrohawk made the liquids-rich Eagle Ford discovery well.
U.S. Shale-catters to IPO Australian Shale Explorer on NYSE
Bryan Sheffield (Source: Hart Energy)
Upon selling Petrohawk to BHP Billiton in 2012 for $15.1 billion, Stoneburner was president of BHP’s new North American shale division.
In addition to Sheffield, Tamboran investors include leading U.S. shale pressure-pumper Liberty Energy Inc., which sent one of its frac spreads to complete the most recent well, Shenandoah South #1H, in December.
The well had a 30-day IP of 3.2 MMcf/d from a 1,644-foot section of lateral that was completed with 10 stages. The 60-day flow was 3.0 MMcf/d; the 90-day flow, 2.9 MMcf/d, according to the S-1.
Normalized for a 10,000-foot lateral, the 30-day flow is equivalent to 19.5 MMcf/d, Tamboran reported in the S-1.
Another investor, Helmerich & Payne Inc., a leading U.S. shale driller, drilled the well with one of its newest FlexRigs, which are operated onsite as well as remotely from H&P’s Tulsa, Okla., headquarters.
Resembles Marcellus
Sydney-based Tamboran holds 4.7 million contiguous gross acres in the targeted Beetaloo Basin; net, 1.9 million acres, according to the S-1.
Thank you Newtofo for the Infos!
Beetaloo, that is just a legal requirement that is in every financial Prospectus -- due to the fact that the funding agreement with the underwriters (some heavyweights with Citigroup and RBC Capital Markets) is only proposed right now!! I think that with these heavyweights taking up the underwriting on the NYSE -- the funding on the first stage anyway should go through in next few months.
Fortunately -- Falcon with it's current $20 million Aussie dollars ($12 million US) appears to be covered for their 5% share of the Full Pilot program -- with both Tamboran and Sheffield having to cover the remaining $195 million EACH in Aussie dollars.
Thank you Newtofo, quick question:
how do you rate this sentence?
"Additional funding may not be available to us on acceptable terms or at all’"
???
After reading that Tamboran's share of the "Full" Pilot Production plan (six wells, 20 mile pipeline, and compressioin facility) could be as high as $250 million Aussie dollars -- POQ's corporate decision to reduce Falcon's exposure to only 5% -- (while we let Riddle and Sheffield prove up the Beetaloo) is looking much better!! The last two paragraphs below (from the Tamboran prospectus) indicates that Tamboran may have to go other routes (like handing more control to Sheffield etc) if all the funding required by Tamboran, with the new listing in the US, can't be raised??
"We estimate the capital required to deliver the first development phase to production will be approximately $125 million (A$195 million) to $165 million (A$250 million) net to Tamboran. We expect to spend approximately $70 million (A$105 million) to $80 million (A$125 million) net on drilling and completion costs, $10 million (A$15 million) to $13 million (A$20 million) net on costs related to the development of the compression facility, $23 million (A$35 million) to $30 million (A$45 million) net on related pad construction and gathering infrastructure and $26 million (A$40 million) to $40 million (A$60 million) net on transaction and general and administrative expenses".
"We estimate that we will need to invest approximately $57 million for fiscal year 2024 in order to progress our development plans. We expect the proceeds of this offering, together with our existing cash on hand (which is $33 million), to be sufficient to fund our planned drilling and testing program at least through the end of fiscal year 2025".
"However, we may require significant additional funds earlier than we currently expect in order to execute our strategy as planned. We may seek additional funding through asset sales or public or private financings. Additional funding may not be available to us on acceptable terms or at all".
Gonoles
I think Mr. BS (respectively the family Sheffield) is the puppet master pulling the strings now.
POQ is getting cornered and says only: Yes Sir, when it becomes a situation to make the next steps for FOG. This guy gave up the dominating drivers seat position of FOG in the Beetaloo Basin. FOG could have been in the position of BS as puppet master of the Beetaloo and as TBN as dominating operator in the Beetaloo. Now we depend and hope the plan of Mr BS will have a good ending for Fog long term shareholders.
TBN filing for the going public IPO in the US is ready to go all in:
Wow "We currently have on contract with Helmerich and Payne, Inc. (NYSE: HP), one H&P FlexRig® until August 2025 with a 10-year option to contract for up to five additional rigs."
With 6 rigs doing factory drilling many horizontal wells can be drilled. And you will need a real big customer for the gas, produced from these wells in the future.
TBN shares will be sold to the US market. But whats the game plan for Fog. For whom the Fog shares are earmarked in BS's monopoly Beetaloo gas game?
Https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1997652/000119312524130878/d716518ds1.htm
Have a nice Weekend you all
I don't think you are a puppet when you see the future and maybe try and see what other options are out there. I said a long time ago that Bryan Sheffield was focusing on consolidating all three companies in the Beetaloo. Scott Sheffield is his Dad, and is the one mentioned in the article, but with the completed sale of Pioneer to ExxonMobil, I would say that frees up a lot of cash to do what you want to do for the family. Scott Sheffield was formerly on the Board for Santos when they were starting in the Beetaloo . Hopefully POQ can negotiate a bidding war. I think he just wanted to prove the value to make it a little bit more expensive after the two wells are done.
What do you think. will BS sell the Beetaloo to Exxon or his arabic OPEC friends or to the Japanese. Perhaps this is the reason POQ as puppet of BS does not show any activity anymore , because BS is executing already his master plan for the Beetaloo. It would be a very, very unlikely when Mr. BS does not follow his master plan for the Beetaloo and for FOG.
https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/government/article/55036871/us-regulator-approves-exxonmobil-pioneer-deal-bans-pioneer-ceo-from-board?o_eid=7129H9430978H4L&oly_enc_id=7129H9430978H4L&rdx.ident[pull]=omeda|7129H9430978H4L&utm_campaign=CPS240501116&utm_medium=email&utm_source=OGJ+Daily
Thanks newtofo!
The way I see it is that POQ could have chosen the long path again with a big capital raise on news of the SSH 1 well and chose not to. This in my opinion is quite telling. He has put away is number # 1 driver for a pitching wedge as he knows a deal to sell is close at hand. HE IS A GOOD GOLFER AFTER ALL. But a lousy promoter and marketer. Let's hope he has not put us in the same position we were in with Origin. GLA...Cammy
Gonoles -- at the end of the Tamboran 1/4ly update that I posted earlier -- there is the following statement:
"In April 2024, Tamboran and the Beetaloo Joint Venture (BJV) have signed a binding long-term GSA to
supply the NTG with 40 TJ per day (~19 TJ per day net to Tamboran) from the proposed Shenandoah
South Pilot Project for an initial term of nine years (131.4 PJ Total, ~62.4 PJ net to Tamboran), starting in
H1 2026".
The BJV (Beetaloo Joint Venture) is all three parties -- being Tamboran, Daly Waters, and Falcon. Therefore, Falcon is included in the gas sales agreement with the Northern Territory but only to the tune of 5%. This works out to 6.55 petajoules to the Falcon side of the equation over the first nine years (or the equivalent of two shrimp on the BBQ and a beer each year -- LOL)..
What worries me about these agreements is they don't mention Falcon as part of the JV. Does this agreement exclude Falcon? or is Falcon responsible for its own agreements.
Tamboran Resources has announced that the Tamboran/Sheffield JV has entered into a 10-year Gas Sales Agreement
Posted by Dale | 30/04/2024
Tamboran Resources has announced that the Tamboran/Sheffield JV has entered into a 10-year Gas Sales Agreement for up to 36.5 PJ per annum (18.3 PJ per annum net to Tamboran) with energy retailer Origin.
This follows a MOU executed in June 2022 with gas pipeline operator, Jemena, to enable Tamboran to contract ~100 TJ per day of firm capacity through the Northern Gas Pipeline, subject to applying NGP Access Principles, under a long-term gas transportation agreement.Tamboran Resources’ pure focus is on its acreage portfolio in the Beetaloo/McArthur Basin in the Northern Territory, where it is the largest acreage holder with ~1.9 million net prospective acres, held through 100% owned properties and two joint ventures – one with Santos and the other with Falcon Oil & Gas and Daly Waters Energy LP (Sheffield).
Through these interests, the Company holds net 2C contingent resources of ~1.5 trillion cubic feet (TCF).
The Beetaloo Basin is located in the Northern Territory of Australia, approximately 600 kilometres south of Darwin. Being proximal to a major industrial hub enables relative logistical and operational luxuries, like close access to key infrastructure through roads, a pipeline and a railway.
Its location means efficient access to Australian markets and beyond, with the northern port city of Darwin and the Eastern Seaboard of Australia to the east through Queensland.
https://pesa.com.au/tamboran-steps-on-the-gas-with-origin-agreement-in-the-top-end/