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Thanks Wet -- as I hadn't thought of just how much can be saved by running the two horizontals side by side off the same pad. Plus it would certainly help if rig availability is an issue in 2022 -- to drill and frack side by side at the Amungee site as a rig owner would get a bigger return with two side by side wells and be on to the next customer quite a bit faster.
Newtofo: Heard that two 2000 meter wells were being planned but then again with the two Santos/Tamboran wells is Origin required to drill two additional wells to prove commerciality when one might suffice? I believe one also has to look at rig availability and the economy of drilling two wells side by side. - much easier/cheaper to skid the rig over and immediately drill the second well - also economics are to be gained by fracking two wells back to back on one pad. Time shall tell!
I would like to see a EP76 horizontal if it rig availability/timing permit but would a test well 1000 meter horizontal prove up commerciality at this point? - I don't fully understand the boxes that need to be checked before claiming a commercial discovery.
Does it mean anything to us that Origin insider's have been buying recently ????
Origin789 -- the real benefit from a successful frack at our EP 76 should come from a slightly higher valuation of Falcon's 22.5% as compared to two successful and safer fracks at the Amungee.
A successful horizontal well at EP 76 would do three adds to the selling equation. First would be inclusion of proven liquids production, the second would be the reduction in some of the longer term drilling costs due to the shorter depth, and the third would be from actual production of shale gas way over on our eastern flank of the permits -- which would improve the aerial extent the three Falcon permits with actual flow rates.
As far as input into the 2022 drilling program -- there is no question that POQ would be working closely with Origin on whatever the program for next year will be. Even though Origin has the final say in what is done and where -- there is no doubt in my mind that all plans and decisions for this past year and for next year are a joint effort as this is a team working on the same page for commercial production at the earliest possible point in time.
Great to hear the updates and people's opinions as to what may happen next year. Origin will likely keep us in suspense. If I had a choice, I would like Origin to jump onto the Amungee to drill the first 2000 meter well to prove commerciality - before deciding whether to undertake the additional time/expense/risk by stepping out into a new area.. Does Falcon have any say in what Origin decides, it would make sense to get something in the bag first.
Q. How would a successful frack to our EP 76 affect our SP when we sell as opposed to 2 safe fracks in the Amungee? GLA.
Wet -- I am sure that you are right on the Amungee location for at least one of the two horizontals -- as Origin has the well pad ready to go, along with very detailed seismic and prior data room drilling analysis that will help them lay down a fault free 2 km horizontal. This would be their first choice , I believe, as it would go a long way, when added to the Santos results, in proving the Beetaloo commercial.
There is a small chance that Origin may go back to EP76 for the second horizontal, and that is based upon the stellar data that was gathered from the vertical DFIT tests at EP76. Not only were there clear indications of valuable wet gas, but also the TOC and saturation numbers were some of the best results to date -- when compared to Falcon/Origin's other wells. On top of that is the depth -- which is shallower than any of the other wells Origin has drilled to date. Therefore, I would think Origin is still considering that location for the second horizontal??
Newtofo: If the T2H and T3H wells come in at the anticipated rate (comingled production in the neighborhood of 8 -10MMscf/D or better) then I would bet that Origin will drill their next two wells on the Amungee NW - 1H pad. Origin's PRIMARY goal of the 2022 drilling program is to drill two 2000 meter wells to prove commerciality - Origin is not trying to prove us additional acreage or looking to undertake the additional time/expense/risk by stepping out into a new area. Origin has the permits and pad built for these next two Amungee wells so they can hit the ground running next year.
Regardless of Oleo's take, Origin/Falcon are pretty confident that the normalized 5.2 - 5.8MMscf/d flow rate out of stages 8-11 (200 meters length) Amungee NW 1H well looks to be a reliable estimate. All the seismic/vertical test wells/logs and now hopefully the T2H and T3H wells assign a pretty good production potential of the 'table top' Middle Velkerri formation that runs throughout 95% of our 4.6 million acre concession.
With the natural flow rate of the vertical T2 and T3 wells, I suspect that Santos/Tamboran's excitement is more than just stock hype - these look to be legitimate solid wells. As I also have mentioned, with Bryon Sheffield's enthusiastic purchase of 7% of Tamboran I suspect he's seeing something to be pretty excited over. This next month could in fact be a big game changer for the Beetaloo Basin and our bird.
It's interesting to see Tamboran posting another press release on Monday morning Down Under on the ASX repeating again what they had already told investors in October this year and more than once this month. Origin/Falcon cannot be compared to a minnow like Tamboran or EEG who feel a need to promote themselves at regular intervals given their reliance in the next year o two to pass the hat around regularly for top-ups in funds. However it's not nice as in this case Tamboran attach a map in this press release that shows misleadingly the number of Origin/Falcon wells that have been drilled in the Beetaloo Basin and the much greater acreage that FOG owns relative to TBN or EEG in the Beetaloo core areas.
This of course is rather silly but readers of this board should put far more credence on Newtofo's posting on Friday at 16.12 which sets out the key numbers that depict the extent that FOG shares are significantly undervalued relative to the TBN share price.. But in the meantime no concern that the Minnows want to highlight again and again to the Market that important news might be coming before the end of the year on the T2H and T3H Santos/Tamboran well drilling results as sooner or later the AIM market in London and North America will realise the same..
Great news for Tamboran and for Falcon JS490,
Just in case anyone misses the link -- when you open JS's link below -- you then have to clik on the Download Document 618.82 KB --- which brings up the Tamboran news release.
This is probably our last really big news event out of the Beetaloo for 2021 -- and fingers are crossed it is going to be a game changer for everyone drilling in the Beetaloo. I now think that Origin may wait until early next year to release their overall drilling plans for 2022 -- as they may want to see those initial flow results from Santos before firming up the exact locations for our next two horizontals.
"Fracture stimulation of Tanumbirini 2H (“T2H”) and T3H wells has commenced, with initial flow
test results expected in December 2021."
“The EP 161 joint venture will now test the productivity of each well, with approximately 10 stages of fracture
stimulations per well in the target formation of the Mid-Velkerri ‘B’. "
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-operational-update-ep161-tanumbirini.6451769/
jmo