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Ditto, to tdafalcon. My feelings exactly. I figure we are now about +/- 23 days before we receive notice on the IP90 Day Flow Rate results. GLTA
I could care less how "slick" of an Irishman he is. The day-to-day value of this stock, has been crap under all that have led us for 15 years. What matters, is how we finish. We will be sold, and the price he has negotiated is all that matters to me. Bashing him for what you feel he isn't doing to make us all feel warm and fuzzy, has no purpose other than adding negative opinion on this board. This asset isn't going away, and those involved in making the Beetaloo spit out wealth will continue to seek a fortune. We are in an excellent position.
Of the Leprechaun....I assume he is still hiding out in his office rather than talking with institutional investors....or the media....which is what he should have been doing in my opinion following the news of the stellar results. This guy really knows how to let down the retail crowd and gets paid well for doing it. He really is a slick little Irishman as someone else pointed out.
Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG.L, 7.15p, £75m) has elected to reduce its participation interest in the proposed Shenandoah South Pilot Project from 22.5% to 5%, significantly reducing Falcon’s cost to participate in the Pilot. Despite only having to pay 5% of the costs of the two wells to be drilled in 2024 as part of the Pilot, Falcon will retain a 10% working interest in c.72,000 acres around the Pilot and a 22.5% working interest in the remaining 4.52m acres. Falcon also retains the benefit of a further A$16.67m of gross carry that will be used to offset against the costs of the Pilot in 2024, thereby further reducing Falcon’s cost to participate.
Yeah but none of that reflects what we see. There was talk about 6-7k acres not 25k acres. There are less than 200 25k lots in the 4.5m. I'm not sure there will be buy backs either. The question is how long will it take them to work their way through the estimated 138 wells. While FOG won't be a producer a potential buyer will care about their ability to par take in the short to medium term as the window for oil and gas globally is closing due to the green initiative. I'd say we are fine but realistically I think being able to buy into these 2 wells at 22.5% would be the ideal scenario and once we buy into the first well in the 25k acres at 22.5% we have the option to go in at 22.5% for every well in that 25,000 acres thereafter. At 5% we are limited to 5% or less for the next 138 wells if they stay in this area. If a big producer buys us out they may look to do a checkerboard deal with the JV over the whole 4.5m acres to allow them get moving at pace and not be tethered to the pace of the JV.
The participation agreement was a master stroke to be fair as it gives us options and stops us from being forced to sell early because we can't pony up the funds I'm not sure if dropping to 5% would have been better than doing a raise though. Only time will tell.
In the Investor meet 18th Jan about 17:30 mins in POQ mentions the option out and the fact that FOG could potentially buy back in if the well was a success- he estimates cost to buy back in at 3 times the initial drill cost but he is not precise. What he does say is that there are 718units across the Beetaloo and though missing out on 1 might seem a lot, it is relatively small in the grand scheme of things.
https://falconoilandgas.com/video-presentations/
look at his answer about 17mins 30s into the questions for 18th Jan 2023
Conserving cash and not diluting is a very good strategic move- the market has marked us down but you can't trade FOG shares as the risk of an opportunistic bid is increasing. Day to day you just have to ignore the small sells and accept that the big picture is only seen when the company gets sold.
For what it’s worth I tried buying another 500,000 shares yesterday and only got 88,500 shares. Do you think POQ was competing with me? A little morning humor there!
POQ has done many good things and been well-compensated. BUT, he’s ignored for too long and now too late my suggested reverse split that would have instantly made FOG investable for smaller institutions and in the U.S., investors precluded due to a price below $5-10, depending on individual firm requirements.
Fortunately, there’s a chance God is looking out for us or BS or others may buy us for a pittance.
Frustrating but perhaps worth adding few more shares. POODS
You are correct bonjourno. I am not sure what the exact cost is, but I believe it is fairly steep. However, any deep pockets buyer of Falcon's 22.5% interest in the Beetaloo will have that option going forward, and in the interim Falcon continues to husband it's remaining cash balance.
Marshmill -- unfortunately my old adage is still in effect and you are correct -- as we have very few new buyers and lots of tired old ones like myself that can't hang on forever -- LOL. Therefore -- you should get a chance to pick up a few added shares lower -- but if ever there was a time when I wouldn't want to be out of Falcon (in case of a wild card buyer stepping in unexpectedly) -- this is getting very close to that time -- (hopefully -- LOL).
Just in case Smallfish doesn't repost (here) his comments from the Tamboran HotCopper bulletin board regarding today's Sentinel satellite flare shot -- it is worth taking a quick read over on HotCopper. Smallfish made some interesting comments regarding the overall slightly larger flare size of the flare from this weeks satellite shot.
There is not a single reason to buy Falcon at the current price. The SP will go lower, and I'll buy when it does. So many other stocks that offer much more upside right now than our old and lame bird. I just cannot see why anybody would buy Falcons right now. Happy Easter Holidays!
Hi newtofo- isn't here an option for FOG to buy back into any wells which it has not fully participated in ? I recall POQ saying that they could do this - admittedly at a higher cost- but if the wells are a success then any future buyer just pays a multiple of the initial drill cost and regains the 22.5% or whatever they decide. Key here is the repurchase is based on drill cost not on the drill success.
Strategically this ability to decide participation at the outset with the ability to buy back in is a major benefit which the market currently just does not see. Any future buyers will see this and FOG is saved from currently diluting at such low levels.
This is my concern here. Not that this was the wrong choice as I didn't see much else that could be done other than massive dilution. My concern is that there is no reason to buy Falcon at this point that I can see. There is little revenue that could be coming in and we know that proving up the acreage doesn't seem to move the share price. The only exception I see are if someone can come in, buy out Falcon and then add their cash to the development of the S2 & S3 wells at the full 22.5pct.
Cheers Newt.
Newtofo March 25th. This is very worrisome news out of Tamboran today -- as Falcon will now have a tiny 5% interest in the next 138 wells to be drilled around the 51,000 acres surrounding the SSH2 Pilot Program well pad. Those next 138 wells could take five years to get completed and during that 5 years Falcon will get next to nothing in revenue for five long years.
What the heck is going on that POQ is basically giving up on the Beetaloo for that many years -- as I for one can't remotely think about hanging on for another five years to see any chance of revenue or a buyer. It is very doubtful that POQ will ever find a buyer in the next 18 to 24 months -- as any buyer won't get anything more than 5% of the gas until those 138 new wells have all been drilled -- sheesh.
Newtofo march 28th, The brilliance of this decision (IMHO) to reduce Falcon's actual risk on these next two 3 km horizontals -- is keeping Falcon's dilution to a minimum while Sheffield and Riddle take on 95% of the risk on what is an untested new well pad 4 km away. There is still a fair degree of risk on what are going to be the most expensive wells drilled to date in the Beetaloo -- especially if Riddle is going to drill blind without doing the 3D seismic program first -- so letting BS and Riddle pay up 95% of the expenses seems to make great sense.
This kind of rhetoric has been going on FOREVER!
Fleurs -- Falcon's interest in the 51,000 acres that surrounds the new SSH2 and SSH3 well pad will now be down to 5%.
When you include the remaining $3.75 million in Aussie funds that remains from the deal POQ negotiated on the Origin sale to Tamboran -- Falcon may only need to contribute another $1.25 million on those next two extremely expensive 3 km horizontals. Falcon still owns 22.5% of the 20,000 acres that surrounds the SSH1 well site as Falcon paid it's full share on the current SSH1 one km horizontal.
Taken together -- Falcon will have approximately a 10% interest in the entire 70,000 acre blocks that covers both the SSH1 and the SSH2/H3 well sites.
It is worth remembering that this 70,000 acre block (that Falcon will still have a 10% interest in) is only a tiny fraction of the total 4.2 million acres that are covered by Falcon's three permits, and only 7% of the deep blue CORE area of one million acres -- leaving 930,000 acres in the deep area.
The brilliance of this decision (IMHO) to reduce Falcon's actual risk on these next two 3 km horizontals -- is keeping Falcon's dilution to a minimum while Sheffield and Riddle take on 95% of the risk on what is an untested new well pad 4 km away. There is still a fair degree of risk on what are going to be the most expensive wells drilled to date in the Beetaloo -- especially if Riddle is going to drill blind without doing the 3D seismic program first -- so letting BS and Riddle pay up 95% of the expenses seems to make great sense.
Looks great, that should knock a couple of % off the share price. For clarification do we now own 5% of the clear view and not 22.5% , as part of the recent deal.
POQ busier on LINKEDIN of late. Hopefully take the message to a wider audience
Makes a good case for the Beetaloo and they will be in production in 2025.
Https://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network458896.html. Maybe good one to listen, since it is about betaloo
Sorry, dilution may not have been factored in dilution, but point being, competent and probably conservative price point, I think it was 39 pence. . . All the best
Frankly, we need more credible coverage, but also agree, best move, sp malaise, again, is awful, but is what it is. Tennyson comment in comparison to most of what is stated here (and more than half of that is now filtered out. . .) is spot on. Also, in terms of valuation, look no further than Cavendish's Note, price, and that is today, not in futuro, with dilution or this move factored in. And our Chair, Nally, used to head that outfit and couldn't be more connected to the City and it's network, money, etc., guy who was key in the Cove buyout. . . But of course, we must wait, testing our resolve and patience! As always, all the best, KMJ
Absolutely, it is good to see Philip is not afraid to use our opt out clause, it feels rather smug to sit here and wait for Tamboran to do the dirty work, proving up our resource for us... and without effectively reducing our overall percentage. I think we can now see the deal POQ made will benefit us all. GLA.
Have to say the recent move, I can only see ot as a positive. I also still think the chance of a buyout coming during the pilot scheme is significant and so it could be a very interesting period we enter into.
Couldn’t have said any more clearly
POODS
Clearly, as the basin matures and the industry becomes more established drilling costs and operational risks per
well will reduce substantially. Therefore, we see the decision by Falcon to reduce its exposure in these early
wells as prudent risk management. Each successful well drilled will derisk the basin as a whole, adding significant
value to Falcon’s residual 4.52 million acres, and meanwhile Falcon still retains a 10% stake in the pilot area
(which is equivalent to just 1.6% of its overall acreage position). Were Falcon to participate in the next two pilot
wells, it would likely have to raise a significant sum of equity which would have been very dilutive at the current
share price. Falcon will now only require a small amount of funding to complete the next two wells, which gives
the company flexibility and minimises dilution (options include equity, debt, pre-payment for gas, or farmdown). Should the wells be successful, they will have a positive impact on the market value of its entire acreage
position, and Falcon can decide whether to raise additional equity to participate in forthcoming DSUs, raise
finance from industry or a strategic partner, or indeed make the decision to sell the entire company.
I think we need proper promotion. Bruner was very good at that, maybe too good. I guess most of the shareholders arrived during his CEO stage, like in my case.
Now we need something similar, but most consistent, without lies or imagination. Now we have facts to prove our value.