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The contingent element of 45.6p is worth circa £342m (750m shares * 45.6p). It is made up of earnout for transit of circa £197m ($240m), £117 from greyhound liabilities and pensions which they think will be released. This is all I could find, so leaves about £28m from other sources e.g. sale of surplus properties in US. The questions for the board are, is the valuation of the contingent amount correct or should it be higher and does the 118p represent a fair value for the remaining core businesses? It must be close in valuation terms for both core business and contingent elements or the board would have rejected outright which they have not and have now extended discussions twice to reach an agreement.
Update offer. Hopefully First will be offerd more. Would be great if another bidder join.
Reuters) - Go-Ahead Group (LON:GOG) said on Thursday it had agreed to an increased buyout offer from Australia's Kinetic Holding and Spain-based Globalvia Inversiones, valuing the transport operator at 669 million pounds ($811.83 million
They might pull out similar to Go-Ahead offer. Or use this to negotiate lower price
The Board of The Go-Ahead Group plc ("Go-Ahead" or the "Company") notes the announcement released on 21 July 2022 by Kelsian Group Ltd ("Kelsian") under Rule 2.8 of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers that it does not intend to make an offer for Go-Ahead. Accordingly, Kelsian is no longer a potential offeror for Go-Ahead.
My Opinion The offer is 118 at the moment cash element. Regarding the contigent element of the offer I agree there will be no shares in an investment fund.
Presumably there is money left over from previous sales First transit and Greyhound and this would be passed on or maybe even liabilities still exist.
45.6 I would like more firm information regarding this amount before I consider the offer more than just 118 ( way below market value) so on your bike.
You will get the money for the cash element. The question is how the contingent element that was in the last offer will be distributed. Not exactly sure on that but wont be shares.
Extension granted until 1700hrs on 18th August with provision for another if granted by the Takeover Panel.
So if 1 Squared takeover do we all have to sell and get a cheque in the post or are we going to end up with shares in another company?.
So they want another extension, this is definitely good news coz it still shows that they are still interested in buying the company, so they will offer a higherprice than the previous bid
I always think with these impossible to know as trying to predict what is going on behind closed doors. They could be on the verge of walking away or about the sign the papers or somewhere inbetween. Is it good news, well guess better than news that it's off but definitely not as good news as a big offer.
Think we continue in current range until outcome known.
Take it as good news if offer comes should be a better offer either way think good recovery play only small holding here.
Another extension, how will the market perceive this?
Kelsian abandons pursuit of Go-Ahead. That could br the reason SP is down today
Suspect we will hear something soon, deadline is 5pm so could be after hours.
Davies - Any update on takeover? Sp down today.
davde; spot on your comments; i think this is a yes, at the original offer price, with greater certain cash.
TSSz; no one else is coming in, and 200p is a pipe dream.
MM are really trying hard to get PI’s to sell
Alll I can see from that is a takeover deal completed by tomorrow
I predict 200p+
DYOR
FGP are still discussing the offer, deadline 21/7, when it maybe extended again or a conclusion reached. I suspect the discussions are about increasing the cash element from 118p and reducing the contingent element from 45.6p. If they increase cash element to anywhere in the 135p to 150p range they maybe in business as think the II's will want to deal. It is all about the bidder taking more of a risk re earnout and legacy asset sales. If another bidder comes in (unlikely imv) then a higher price could be achievable. We will see what happens re deadline soon.
I think they will come back with a offer of 200p + hopefully
Market sentiment imv positive day all round. We are due news re takeover as deadline approaches unless they extend again.
SP just jumped up 6p, news leaked for takeover bid
could we have RNS Monday morning, wouldn't want to be out over the weekend
From Trainline's trading update today....
".....In the first four months of FY2023, Trainline's net ticket sales are up 16% versus the same period in FY2020 (pre-COVID)."
Also the following (see the link below) is Wasting cash and making people on the top rich. Also keeping friends in job.
First Bus has announced a major shake up of the management structure of its subsidiary companies which will cut costs particularly senior managers and overheads. It’s a laudable aim as Government Covid financial support comes to an end in a couple of months time and with passenger numbers still 80% of ‘normal’ expectations a raft of cuts to services is inevitable in the autumn.
https://busandtrainuser.com/2022/07/02/a-reverse-move-for-first/
Sorry wasting cash.
Also the following is not wasting cash and making people on the top rich.
First Bus has announced a major shake up of the management structure of its subsidiary companies which will cut costs particularly senior managers and overheads. It’s a laudable aim as Government Covid financial support comes to an end in a couple of months time and with passenger numbers still 80% of ‘normal’ expectations a raft of cuts to services is inevitable in the autumn.
https://busandtrainuser.com/2022/07/02/a-reverse-move-for-first/
and BOE said Russia's invasion of Ukraine left the central bank without a full picture of risks and vulnerabilities.