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Started: Gavster-NBC, 12 Jun 2024 12:52
Last post: Gavster-NBC, 12 Jun 2024 12:52
Hi All. A question to all holders.
I've had Fevertree on my watch list for years and never invested as IMO it is constantly valued at a too high a premium for it's earnings ratio and dividend yield. I generally invest in shares with a yield of 5% or more but an SP of 330p or less here looks never likely to happen.
Why is the valuation so comparatively high ? Is it the constant prospect of takeover or the faith of how much the company will grow in the next decade. I'm interested.
Started: niklol, 30 Apr 2024 20:59
Last post: Corryvreckan1, 7 Jun 2024 09:09
Yeah, bit of a nothing update really. “Comfortable” with expectations is down there with ‘resilient’ as words I get twitchy about in an update.
Got my eye on DGE as well to see if last week’s bounce off the long term uptrend base has any legs.
Well, whatever enthusiasm that was anticipated has evaporated. s'pose I'll hang on over the summer but as this is in an ISA, I will take any loss on the chin as it cannot be applied to CGT. Now the hard work starts in finding a company in the same sector that has better prospects - Diageo, AB In Bev and a few others spring to mind - I will next post when my holding has been sold.
AGM on Thursday 6th next week, they normally issue a trading update with FY outlook that morning.
Another down day........not one of my better picks. Prefer to sell into strength
The SP got carried away in frothy market. It seems now to be fairly valued. Not convinced that the managers are able to grow profits except with new mixers and more outlets stocking and promoting their products.
Ready to take a haircut and put proceeds to work elsewhere
Started: Alas_Smith, 26 Mar 2024 15:06
Last post: Alas_Smith, 26 Mar 2024 15:06
Todays results have been well received.
Started: MissGolightly, 2 Mar 2024 07:54
Last post: MissGolightly, 7 Mar 2024 21:44
I thought the analysis was well put … particularly the assessment of US market and brand loyalty. Long way to go… but I do think we have turned a corner … let’s hope.
Wow, Fevertree seems to have survived the curse of a Questor tip. Many DT readers see his tip as a strong sell move. Well questor is not always wrong,let us hope his opinion here proves good. Keep buying Miss Golightly.
Fevertree heavily tipped for share price recovery in Daily Telegraph today….. I’m doing my bit. … got very over refreshed last night on the stuff. Oh …and Gin!
Miss G
:-)
He did well to get that price
Non exec chairman buys a fairly hefty chunk today.
UK & Europe Sales both down 10% in H2. Despite how it looks, the ROW has started to climb back - going from 9.6 in H1 to 17.6 in H2.
Think that was already in the price before news.
They've missed revenue estimates by £20m. US growth has slowed dramatically since H1
Started: Alas_Smith, 16 Jan 2024 11:35
Last post: Alas_Smith, 16 Jan 2024 11:35
Https://citywire.com/wealth-manager/news/stock-talk-fevertree-upgrade-liontrust-over-the-moon/a2434079
This might lift the share price a little
Started: Zidane, 15 Dec 2023 09:44
Last post: Zidane, 15 Dec 2023 09:44
This seemed to have sneaked through quietly.- avid served as Senior Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer for PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA) where he was accountable for leading the end-to-end supply chain operations for PBNA.
IMO, if it leads to some kind of distribution deal with PepsiCo it would be the fastest way to grow sales across NA, although that' just speculation. Either way, looks like a good fit for their long term strategy in the region.
Started: f15jcm, 10 Nov 2023 11:11
Last post: Laughton, 10 Nov 2023 12:36
On first reading I thought - "no problem, drinkers won't stop drinking, they'll just be trading down to cheaper whisky etc.)" but I guess the same could be said for the mixer they'll be buying, and ours is expensive :-(
Obvious read across to the mixer market
Started: Laughton, 26 Oct 2023 16:28
Last post: ironknut, 1 Nov 2023 09:48
Yes, sadly a Questor recommend has become a reason to sell of late.
An encoraging directors buy, but I'm still hesitant at the very high p/e ratio of about 43%. This 'growth' stock which is down 65% and 59% over 5 and 2 years respectively, is not showing much sign of progressive profits. UK revenue growth is disappointing. US revenue is definitely encouraging. The share is under £10. Six years ago it was over £30. Some growth stock! Risky, despite Questor's recommendation today. Questor in my opinion has been abysmal in its recommendations over the last couple of years. Just look at TBLD and you'll see what I mean!!!
Quite a chunky buy. I might follow suit tomorrow, albeit with a (much) smaller quantity
Kevin Havelock, a Non-Executive Director of the Company, bought, in aggregate, 41,194 ordinary shares in the Company at a volume weighted average price of £10.194 per ordinary share via the London Stock Exchange.
Fevertree Drinks plc posted Interims for the HY ended 30th June this morning. The Group recorded revenue growth of 9% year-on-year to £175.6m, with a standout performance in the US of +40% growth which is now the Group's largest region by revenue contribution. Profits were held back a little driven by product cost headwinds, partially offset by efficiency projects, adjusted EBITDA dropped 54% to £10.2m. EPS was down more dramatically by 90% to 1.2p. Valuation remains the main cloud for the investment case with forward PE ratio at 47.9x looking a little prohibitive. The share has a market cap of over £1.5b on statutory net profit of under £25m. There is lots of growth here, but FEVR remains a share to monitor at current prices. ..
...from WealthOracle
wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/FEVR/791
Started: Zidane, 12 Sep 2023 08:46
Last post: Zidane, 12 Sep 2023 08:46
Profit margins continue to take a hit but I like the detail laid out in the RNS on how they expect to see these headwinds resolve over the coming year or so.
Sales growth in the USA is still quite exciting and hopefully the ROW should pick back up soon. Overall, IMO they appear to be executing well on their global expansion not sacrificing their core principles of positioning themselves as a premium product.
Started: InchingCloser, 11 May 2023 16:27
Last post: Gate13Boy, 19 Jul 2023 11:00
Up over 8% currently. Didn’t realise how sensitive these would be to inflation and interest rates. Bought mine at £10.48 a while back as I like most of Nick Train stocks. Hopefully these can motor on now.
Bought a shedload along with the CEO when it dropped below £9. More than happy with progress since then as they seem to have a grip on costs and a competent management team. The whole market is on a downer of late and, as they say, when the tide goes out all boats will drop".
More probably belt tightening through rising interest rates. Non essential purchases eliminated. Flavoured water sold at premium price is obvious candidate.
One month now of sp in freefall. Seems many investors see a grim future for Fevertree. Hopefully this sp collapse merely reflects overall market decline.
Not sure about a bid but agree with your other comments. Therefore very surprised at to-days sp fall. Given recent positive news makes no sense.
Started: blablabla1, 30 Jun 2023 12:33
Last post: blablabla1, 3 Jul 2023 09:27
Bought some fevertree products in Dutch biggest supermarket chain. Price is 3,35 euro for 500 ml!!! Taste is personal but do not see this grasping a lot of marketshare in current pressured buying power isituation n these chains. Perhaps in clubs but not in regular supermarkets overhere.
Dear all, came across fever-tree in VIC database. Checked it out, looks like a great business in difficult times. A back on the envelop DCF gave me an intrinsic value of about 9-10 pounds. Just a starting point, please do not attach great meaning to it as my DD is just starting. To get me on the way, are there any publications I should look at worth reading? I have access to TIKR, Morningstart and SeekingAlpha and Simply Wallstreet. Product and brand look strong, what is wrong now. Is it mainly inflation and doubt about CAGR potential due to recession fear? How strong is the CEO and is the business in itself fundamentally having a moat? Many thanks upfront.
Started: anyoneforcricket, 5 May 2023 16:37
Last post: Zidane, 5 May 2023 18:38
Seemingly they denied that they hired them for the strategic review, but rather retained them for corporate brokering.
A complete guess, but they clearly see the US becoming their major market so perhaps they are considering leaving the AIM for the NYSE?
According to press reports Morgan Stanley has been hired to undertake a strategic review of the business. Latter is M&A code for "we are wide open for (sensible) bids". Hence the jump. Given the recent margin compression I imagine management would be happy with anything north of £18. At £20+ it's a slam dunk. It's a shame as on a 5 year view this business should be worth a lot more, assuming continued revenue growth and margin recovery. Sadly in our short term world neither the management / nor shareholders think in years. People will take the 30% premium now. And the real money will be paid, as so often, off market...
Finally a decent move….hoping this can be held and expanded over next few weeks. Decent company that is dealing with its growing pains….
Started: InchingCloser, 26 Apr 2023 16:42
Last post: ironknut, 4 May 2023 10:53
Do not understand wish for the sp to go down 10% to buy more. The present sp suggests a none too positive future. The only reason the sp will now fall back is because the smart money is bailing out fast. The recent sp increase whilst Aim shares generally continue to fall gives me hope that Fevertree are in recovery. The sp rarely lies. If it drops back to £12 then get out and cut your losses.
Shame it hasn't fallen further but i believe it will..Just a matter of time, then we can finally move up. DYOR.
should be a quick retrace to £12, hopefully..before i buy back in!
i am waiting to go back in till we get back to just over £12 which is a support level. DYOR.
I've just started buying in on the dip. Back to where it started.
Started: samdb, 28 Apr 2023 16:49
Last post: samdb, 28 Apr 2023 16:49
Very perky again today. Something happening in the background.
Never in doubt-keep climbing my little beauty.
Acker
£14.56 next target. IMO. DYOR.
Further SP progress.
Very encouraging.
Acker
Started: StrictlyZinc, 22 Mar 2023 07:09
Last post: Alas_Smith, 23 Mar 2023 09:11
https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/expert-view-fevertree-savills-bytes-tech-spirent-ten-entertainment/a2412536?re=107170&ea=1221491
A little research from Citywire in case not seen yet
Nothing to be greatly impressed by, it seems the market was expecting something much worse, hence the increase in sp.
Google - "Fevertree tackles cost pressures and reduces exposre to logistics risks" for the IC take on results.
ShearClass, the SETS system works in tandem with MM's. Those with direct access to SETS can and do enter orders on the buy and sell side at a price that they are willing to execute, the best price at the top of each side of the book. There is a priority based on time of placing and when matched these are executed using these simple priorities. These are presented in feeds as A trades.
Illiquid companies have input from Market Makers and where an investor or their broker does not have direct access, the SEAQ system is used for bargains to be made. Off book deals are denoted as O and are made directly between a market maker and an investor. You will note that both A and O trades are reported for this equity. I hope this helps.
Comparisons are good on revenue and bad on profits. However, it remains a premium brand, still growing sales and with new products coming to market which are all positive factors. Growth story is quite compelling if you believe it can eventually get better control over its costs. I'm not in a rush to sell but wouldn't add either. My guess is that this will eventually get back to profits growth or failing that will be taken over because its a brand that, with a big market player behind it, could be huge.
The market appears happy, and SP rising.
All good by me.
Pleased with the figures.
Acker
Keep going --impressed.
Acker
Nice recovery--as expected.
Acker
Last post: Billyboy2fromiii, 26 Jan 2023 17:49
Bad,
Thank you for reply. Good comments. I am a holder here and was considering adding. However, more negative following today’s RNS.I will hold (for long term) but only add should the sp drop substantially (£8 or less).
Certainly going to need revenue growth to offset the higher costs.
Considering no stamp duty, FEVR is rather speculative assert. The value here is not in P/E but in liquidity and volatility.
Bad,
Thank you for reply. Good comments. I am a holder here and was considering adding.
Billyboy - I don't think it will fall that much. I think the P/E at 28 was much lower than historically has been the case and already reflected reduced expectations. The top line growth should, at some point result in bottom line growth but there is no current visibility for that. Fevertree remains a premium brand that is still growing at a good rate. I think it will struggle to go higher until there is clear evidence of margin improvement but a fall to £6.18 for such a highly regarded brand seems unlikely to me.
Hi,
Even allowing for today’s drop in sp, I have calculated that P/E Ratio based upon projected Net Profit for 31/12/22 is about 46 and for 31/12/23 is about 45.
So revenue is projected to grow but the significant cost increased will lower EBITDA and Net Profit resulting in a much higher P/E ratio than today’s 28.
To reflect todays P/E of 28, the so would need to fall to approx £6.18 from today’s £10.20.
On that basis, has the so got further to fall before representing good value?
Thoughts?
Started: Laughton, 17 Jan 2023 18:20
Last post: ironknut, 19 Jan 2023 16:43
Nick Train comments suggest good times ahead for Fevertree. Had i not already be holding shares i would now see them as a serious buy.
Started: LegendB, 15 Sep 2022 11:51
Last post: Alas_Smith, 22 Dec 2022 19:37
I've doubled my holding with another purchase today
That's odd - yesterday's news (mixed bag but 30% cut in profit) the sp went up. A day later and the its down around 5%. People just taking profit from yesterday or something additional today i've missed? Any views?