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Posted a valuation last night, which caused some very interesting chat. I've spent the day looking at the North American Palladium buyout.
Its purported that their resources were 5 Moz. The buyout price was £600,000,000 (converted to British Pounds) (0.6 billion)
That's equates to £120 per ounce, when Plalladium was roughly £1,300 per ounce, spot market price. (Extraction costs unknown)
Let's do a similar comparison.
Palladium has increased by 35% .
So let's say a buyer is happy to pay £162 per ounce, 35% increase due to price inflation. Monchetundra + flanks, is suppose to have reserves equalling 15MOZ.
£160 × 15MOZ = £2,430,000,000 (2.4 Billion)
The wider Monchetundra area, and surrounding areas are purported to include another 25Moz, which are presently not under licence. Although should add some value. Due to the risk involved and costs, I would expect a heavy discount, so I only value this at £32 per ounce. (80% discount)
£32 per ounce × 25,000,000 = 800,000,000
Monchetundra potential value = 3.2 Billion.
SP = £1.15 (not including the extra share options)
The above does not take into account the following:
North America palluidum: grade 2.1
Eurasia-Mining: grade 3.1 (superior grade)
1. West kytlim
2. Platinum reserves
3. Rodium reserves
4. ridium reserves
5. Gold reserves.
6. Perhaps lower extraction costs at EUA?
7. Bidding war?
8. increased demand.
Any thoughts?
GLA
Solid synopsis J4ams. I would include an additional 50% as a minimum baring in mind a few surplus knowns and some to date undisclosed unknowns may take us beyond this.
Trift x
J4ams - great informative post, should REE's be taken into consideration of your valuation?
EUA is definitely something special, and like most look forward to seeing this FSP come to fruition.
GLA
Stay Safe
remember EUA owns 80% of MT
Thrift
Solid synopsis, it's all speculation!
Thanks for posting your thoughts J4ams. Don't forget that Eurasia only own 80% of MT though, so your share price needs to be discounted to reflect this.
You need to add the 'mac is a shareholder' value to it, puts the stock on a completely different level tbh lol
GLA
Mac
÷ by 2 if your a shareholder
It’s time for an outcome now, whatever it is. Hopefully we will all be very happy then we can move on.
There are knowns and unknowns and the unknowns are likely to be more valuable than the knowns. The bidders know the unknowns and are still keen.
There's also this to consider, it adds a little value, not quite as much as the mac factor though lol -
The title of the slides for investors prepared by VTB Capital is as follows: "The Last Non Consolidated Palladium Play".
GLA
Good Point guys!
So at 80% ownership, puts the potential SP at 92p.
Problem is, without a bloody feasibility study with proven resources it's a flipping nightmare.
All this chat of £10, £35, a share is complete rubbish IMO.
We know the metals are there, but we dont have the licences etc. Its like buying a house with planning permission and paying top dollar for the finished article, its fanciful!!
North America Palladium sold their company based on £120 per ounce, even when the spot market price was £1,300. This is only 10% of the spot market price.
Personally I expect a sale between 75p and £140.
GLA
Trift
You dont know the unknowns but not know the knowns
How the hell do we know what we dont know if we knew that we would know everything
All I know is you know nothing
> Personally I expect a sale between 75p and £140.
£140 would be very nice indeed.
Tbf it’s totally pointless trying to estimate or guess when we have been given no clue as to wtf is in the ground. We are totally in the hands of the board and must hope they do all the brave shareholders justice, especially when we have little to go off.
I trust but they know there’s no way of retribution whatever the outcome!
"Personally I expect a sale between 75p and £140." - covering all bases i see, including the mac factor haha
GLA
J4ams has just become king of rampers at £140 / share !
Lol, yes that is quite a broad range I guess.
Covering all my bases.
I expect £1 :-)
I just hope there will be deal bcz my hopes r if some one agreed to buy it may be more than what the price of the share is now I will be happy on 40p as well lot better than no deal
Ops!!! Put the decimal in the wrong place!!
£1...40 (one pound and forty pence)
Lol
Jam
You didnt put a decimal point in???
£140.................................
I thought for a minute Hoochy was back!.....
Only joking!
Well reasoned approach based on facts. In line with my own thinking.
This is assuming a full sale, may be more lucrative to sell MT and keep a royalty and continue mining WK.
Let's not go there with the £140,
It will encourage hoochy to trump that figure.
I fully expect the guesses to start rising now? £200, £300, £400.
Can, worms, opened!
What have I done?
Since this is the last Palladium play going this could go for £1000 a share.