The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
In a top russian business paper, as they talk about all things 'russian palladium'
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4221391
GLA
On Twitter as well. Open in Chrome and it'll translate for you.
Another platinum group metal producer - Eurasia Mining - is working
at Monchetundra deposits on the Kola Peninsula and Western Kytlym at
Ural. Monchetundra reserves are estimated at 60 tons of platinum and palladium, project
production level - 4 tons per year. Board Strategy Director
Eurasia Mining Alexey Churakov told Kommersant that with a palladium price of about $ 2.3 thousand
per ounce the company's EBITDA after reaching full production will reach
$ 250 million. "Rising prices for palladium and other platinum group metals are already
had a very positive effect on capitalization of a company that grew in
2019 five times and currently stands at more than $ 140 million, ”said
he. In his opinion, given the resource base of the company (including on the flanks
licenses) in the amount of more than 15 million ounces in palladium equivalent, cost
Eurasia Mining May Exceed $ 2 Billion.
As it's a translation should the word 'cost' in the last sentence actually mean value?
Good find.... I’m happy to add bit more. Top up anyone?
You'll also note how big the financial rewards of such rises are to Norilsk nickel, the article highlights them very well.
With financial benefits as described within that article being so huge to them, they will be all guns blazing towards acquiring russian palladium assets IMHO.
GLA
That article in the Russian press is dynamite - if that gets publicity the price will rocket.
For those who did not see this earlier:
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4221391
Chrome does a good job of translating this.
The BoD are saying that they can make $250M per year once the mines are operational, so NorNickel or whoever will have to pay a lot for the assets.
$1 billion equates to 28.5p per share
3.925 × 8.6 = 33.755p a share!.
When you look into things, a potential high sale price looks inevitable. All imho!
GLA
What does 3.925 × 8.6 represent?
I will be very surprised if It not NN in talks of taking it over. Since they so close as in same country. They want all control over PGM to control the market. But I bet they being cheeky trying to get it on the low but DS AND CS not having it. So talks continue.
I'm hoping for more like £3 billion (fingers crossed)
NN know we are a threat. So they will buy us out at some point to neutralise that threat. DS won’t let this go below a acceptable amount as he heavily invested too.
Again just thinking out loud, does anyone know where the expected deficit will be met in 2025? Every article I've read is at least until then, so if it takes roughly 2 years to gain permit for the extra 25mil oz would you start applying for them now knowing that at the height of the deficit you've made 250mil plus you can negotiate for the extra ounces in a mega billion deal at the height of the scramble for new pd??
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/s2xo4yrub39olgt6n8audg2- bob
Link won't open(shrugs shoulders)
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/s2xo4yrub39olgt6n8audg2
Dito, any idea on the ratios? Is it pt or pd predominant do you know?
Because if its pt there's only one place they can get their filthy rich mitts on any high grade pd.......
8.6x current share price is the market average deal factor for the mining sector -
https://www.bvresources.com/blogs/bvwire-news/2019/01/03/ebitda-multiples-by-industry-new-statistics-on-private-company-selling-prices
GLA
Correction - the EBITDA multiple
GLA
"The study found that EBITDA multiples are highest for the information sector (11.1x) and the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector (8.6x)."
GLA
So where the russian article says this - "the company’s EBITDA will reach $ 250 million after full production is reached."
The potential deal value is around $2.150 billion.
I apologise for any confusion with the earlier posted figure!.
GLA
But is this your average mine? Didn't dimitry say this sets us apart or along those lines
No it's not your average mine/assets. The MT side of things is complicated, not in production but has a EPCF contract in place with sinosteel to take it to production at an agreed processing rate
Open pit, very low cost and fast to production for someone like NN.
GLA