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Most recent research by Align is 3.47p
https://www.alignresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Eqtec_Align_Update_July_2021.pdf
They maintain their forecast of €15m revenue for 2021.
The 5p broker note from Arden is available on the telegram group at https://t.me/eqtec
Pipeline currently over €600m and 76 projects.
Projects range from 1 - 30MW in size with capex ranging from around €7m - €200m
2 projects reached financial close in 2020
1 already in 2021 with 5 to 7 more expected 2H 2021.
€6m in Bank at start of year, £16m cash raise completed in May. Revenue for this year forecast to be €15m increasing to €63m 2022.
Tenpins will now spam the board with negativity to try and get this post away from the board.
There are some rampers, mainly all believers and maybe 2 derampers on this board! Gla and usall caveats! =)
Aandi- can I just say your hours of research and sharing of it are very much appreciated!! This looks to be a fantastic investment for the future and I for one am loading up gradually at these low prices to make the most of it! Fingeres crossed it works out for you and all others here for the long term.
In Greece even smaller plants are being built.
There is a pipeline of 13 with the first 0.5MW plant already under construction. Value to eqtec €2m, its unclear to me if this is the capex or if this is project money due to eqtec for engineering and design work done pre financial close.
We are expecting the next one to reach financial close soon, see RNS below of the last one for an example of what to expect:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EQT/financial-close-signing-of-contract-with-ewergy-bmdm7876t59pymu.html
A further 3 plants are at the planning stage in Greece, the first at 0.9mw is closest to financial closure, a 5mw planned and a 1mw with letters of intent signed.
USA we were told the other day we could see a wood biomass plant reach financial close in a few months with partner phoenix energy, kindly shared by rollonretirement:
"An interesting new article (for anyone who's interested) on the challenges developing biomass plants in California to deal with dead and dying trees and reduce the risk of forest fires. It includes an interview with Greg Stangl (Phoenix Energy CEO) and some discussion of North Fork.
I particularly liked "Stangl says his team is aiming to reach financial close on another project in a couple of months, a positive indicator of a shift in projects’ development pace."
http://biomassmagazine.com/articles/18165/on-fire
This is on top of the Northfork plant due to be completed in 2021 although there is a shortfall of funds which Eqtec will likely cover in order to turn this into a revenue erner plus technology showcase plant for further plants in the USA.
Then in the UK we have 3 projects at dessign stage, Billingham is the largest at 25MW and had planning permission granted back in December. Money from the recent placing has been earmarked for land purchase, Idex France agree to finance, we just need the EPC partner onboard, discussions ongoing. This will be the big news of the year (huge revenue at financial close and EPC partnership deal of some form)
A further 2 projects are at Due Dilligance stage with partners in the UK bringing the total to 5 UK RDF projects, 25mw, 9mw, 9.9mw (size to be confirmed due to recent Welsh EfW legislation change) and a further 2 at DD stage yet to be announced.
3 projects in Ireland, the first at Shannon has just received planning permission with conditions. No RNS yet so further details likely to be worked out before being announced.
2x Croatian projects being looked at, first was already built and now needs recommissioned under eqtec management so low capex quick turn around project once a collaboration deal is completed similar to the one done in June at the plant in Italy.
Hi All
Great to read up on some superb research much appreciated
Still holding just over 2m of these little beauties ever hopeful these contracts finally come to fruition!
Have a great weekend
MFU
**Northfork due to be online in 2022, typo previous. We will soon be majority stake holder. Annual revenue of $4m to be shared by all equity holders.
First Greek project due to be online 2022
Italian project which we own 20% of due to be online Q2 2022
July update (not part of any RNS avaible on the eqtec website)
https://eqtec.com/agricultural-forestry-waste-plant-italia-mdc-tuscany-italy/
Then there are the two R&D units to be run at the universities. Then the 6MW electric plus 6MW steam (Co-generation power and heat) Movialsa plant in Spain with 10 years operation time. Not sure what slice of the operation and maintenance contract eqtec have but every so often equipment sales revenue is announced in the updates.
https://eqtec.com/gasification-projects/
A timely reminder of the enormity of what is before us. I have my eyes on another top up as funds now in hand.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TOhJeBd2ku1Pw6hn-oB6k-8IwtwhJg0O/view?usp=drivesdk
Page 11 shows the project finance stages reached at financial close and beyond. It is now a simplified 4 step payment structure with 40% payable at the start/financial close (this was previously 25%)
Note all the hard work which goes into each project by eqtec pre financial close. This is the work being done now and over the past 18 months and more to develop the pipeline.
This is why stringent procedures are in place tto only move high quality qualifying projects onto thee pipeline so as not to waste EQTEC's time and resources on flops.
Excellent info there Aandi I'll tell a mate who's invested to read your posts there, she's doesn't follow events much and those posts will make her very comfortable to wait for the rewards. I usually just press the recommend but you do post a heck of allot of data and we all value your efforts so from me and I'm sure my friend Cheers.
Addition to above notes taken from Arden report
When a customer provides details of a type of waste and the available volume in
terms of MT/hour, EQTEC’s Kinetic Simulation Software can provide that customer
with a detailed analysis of thermochemical reactions that take place in the
gasification process, the syngas composition ratios within a +/- 5% margin of error,
and the output that would be produced from an operating plant
The process inside the gasifier is bespoke and entirely aligned to the customer’s
specific feedstock / waste requitements, the tuning of this is a function of the
patented modelling software.
A bit more detail about the software from an older Arden report (June 2020),
Proprietary knowhow: Proprietary Kinetic Simulations Software
EQTEC has developed a powerful software simulation tool that is capable of predicting
the thermochemical processes of solid degradation of its library of more than 50 waste
feedstocks that takes place inside its gasification chamber and resulting syngas
composition.
When a customer provides details of a type of waste and the available volume in terms
of MT/hour, EQTEC’s Kinetic Simulation Software can provide that customer with a
detailed analysis of thermochemical reactions that take place in the gasification process,
the syngas composition and within a +/- 5% margin of error, and the output that would
be produced from an operating plant, e.g.:
Electricity output (e.g. with a Jenbacher gas engine) in terms of kWh, per MT of
waste input
Heat or Steam output - in kWh per MT of waste input
Biofuels (e.g. with a Fischer-Tropsch unit) in terms of litres of biodiesel per MT of
waste input
Biochar - in terms of MT of biochar per MT of waste input
This software tool additionally provides data on process operating parameters and
optimal system characteristics such as operating temperature, energy balance,
residence time and volume of fluidised bed materials.
Hi Andi,
the Arden file you shared, do you have the latest report from them for Q2?
Naz,
Join the Telegram group, it's available there.
Ta TryAgain ive just joined Telgram
Thread up to the top of the board after Tenpins' useless RNS post.
And up once more ... :-)
Hopefully Aandi doesn't mind, but here's his main message in full.
2.8p, 3.47p, 5p research price targetsFri 16:14
Most recent research by Align is 3.47p
https://www.alignresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Eqtec_Align_Update_July_2021.pdf
They maintain their forecast of €15m revenue for 2021.
The 5p broker note from Arden is available on the telegram group at https://t.me/eqtec
Pipeline currently over €600m and 76 projects.
Projects range from 1 - 30MW in size with capex ranging from around €7m - €200m
2 projects reached financial close in 2020
1 already in 2021 with 5 to 7 more expected 2H 2021.
€6m in Bank at start of year, £16m cash raise completed in May. Revenue for this year forecast to be €15m increasing to €63m 2022.
For the uninitiated amongst us.
1. Price targets are exactly what they are, targets nothing more. No guarantees.
2. 76 projects of which none are signed therefore can all be effectively cancelled.
3. There are many many companies out there on AIM promising exactly the same.
This is only my own opinion, take it as you wish. Peace out.
1. Yes they are targets. Any positive surprises, such as those Eqtec can give us on occasion, could make the price fly past any targets.
2. 76 currently. They're receiving enquiries every day, which are being forwarded on their merit, so only the ones with the best likely outcomes are forwarded at every stage.
3. Like PHE, with their crooked ex minister CEO. Not like Eqtec with their successful financier CEO and CFO.
76 was the pipeline back in february, one project has already reached financial close in Italy Q2. More projects likely on the pipeline now, projects I guess will ranging from €3m to.... ~€190 each (0.5MW/25 or even 30MW theoretically although one hasn't been announced yet). impossible to say an exact capex as each project is very unique with heating systems, battery storage, biofuels all with different partners in different countries. we still await full quote for the large UK projects from the EPC partner who wins the contract, they will need to carry our precurement and construction calculations. Once the first contracts are signed then we have a template for future projects.
Top
The 2.8p price forecast was previously 3.25p before the £16m placing and is from the new broker canaccord genuity. (who helped facilitate the placing) They are also one of the 9 market makers buying and selling shares to the public on the bid and ask. 9 is exceptionally high for aan Aim share. https://www.lse.co.uk/news/EQT/canaccord-genuity-reiterates-speculative-buy-rating-on-eqtec-3p6ag2frhk8f81r.html
The 3.47p price forecast is Align research, the other company broker. Their previous price target was 1.35p and this latest forecast was made after the latest q2 update.
The 5p price forecast is from Arden who updated their previous 3.2p target post placing. Their reports are always of a high standard but not so easily accessed (as with the full Cannacord report which is only available to their clients and impossible to get hold of otherwise)
The 5p note first edition (most thorough)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dkPxaS5LXaERABkHHkIcIHqHzprr7VTE/view?usp=drivesdk
Impressive forecast gross margin to eqtec of 33%.
Do we know when this was written, as it quotes the ‘current’ share price as being 1.65p. So just trying to get a feel as to when it was done. Personally I’d be more than happy to see it reach 5p and higher so, before anyone suggests, this is not a bash or deramp
28th May, when the price was 1.65p. Their old forecast was 3.2p or there abouts.
And again,
Most recent research by Align is 3.47p (1.35p previously)
https://www.alignresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Eqtec_Align_Update_July_2021.pdf
They maintain their forecast of €15m revenue for 2021.
The *latest* 5p broker note from Arden is available on the telegram group at https://t.me/eqtec
Pipeline currently over €600m and 75 projects.
Projects range from 0.5MW - 30MW in size with capex ranging from around ~€3m - €200m depending on costs and quotes from EPC and depending on which region and design/options chosen.
2 projects reached financial close in 2020
1 already in 2021 with 5 to 7 more expected 2H 2021. 3 projects to be complete and online in 2022 with eqtec having part ownership of two. (20% of Italy and an as yet to be finalised majority stake of Northfork)
€6m in Bank at start of year, £16m cash raise completed in May. Revenue for this year forecast to be €15m increasing to €63m 2022.
Tenpins aand co will often spam the board with negativity to try and get posts like this away from the top. Boiler room tactic. Haapens to shares with great potential.
There are some rampers, mostly all here are firm believers and only a few persistent derampers on this board! GLA and see everyone when we open 7% up tomorrow.
Good morning all,
As you can read Aandi’s post below and his 7 percent up claim one can only come to the conclusion he must have a glass ball, or perhaps had a glass too many. Don’t take him too seriously in any case. GLA