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Well guys, it's obvious this isn't just petty rumours, we have a statement and to be honest when I see stuff on the Wall Street Journal I tend to believe it. It is however unbelievable and rather disgusting. Time to to think about the next moves: - the consortium wants KAZ to 'irrevocably accept to sell its shares', that's an easy one in principle but a bit more tricky in practice, since they always said they would put it to the vote and wanted more cash. It's hard for them to say that they will irrevocably accept to sell their shares when they know it's a bad deal and not really for them to decide. - What will the independent committee say? If they recommend it, they will look like a bunch of clowns having rejected the previous one (which was marginally higher), but even then it is up to us to vote for it so it's not automatic it will go through. What I don't understand is why the media is so convinced that the committee will have to accept 'because there are no alternatives'. Of course there are no alternatives and it wasn't the committee that ASKED for a takeover. And anyway there is an alternative, that is to say no and carry on being traded on the market. We don't HAVE TO sell! I wish journalists would stop trying to brainwash shareholders into doing what the trio wants us to do. What do we do? Scenario 1: the committee says no and the bid is rejected (or KAZ says no), all fine by me. The boat is rocked a bit, but within a week or so the market moves on and I can't see the share staying low for very long - but the SFO enquiry may start to bite. However in the mid to long term it is more likely that ENRC will trade higher than now. Scenario 2: the committee says yes and KAZ too, the issue is put to the vote of ENRC and KAZ shareholders. How long will this take? What will happen to the price in the meantime? But whereas I may see a yes coming out from KAZ shareholders (purely because they want out of ENRC, but they may still say no), I don't see the same coming from US, it is likely that ENRC minority will vote against it - what have we got to lose at the end of the day? The company is not about to go bust and most are long-term shareholders, prepared to stick it out if necessary. So, do we weather the storm or give up? I am not going to finance the deal of some ultra-rich russians and sell at a considerable loss, and I doubt the likes of Barclays, JP Morgan, Credit Suisse and others will happily write off millions of pounds in losses either. Looks like we're going to be holding for quite some time yet.
Enjoy your hill climbing, off out for brunch, might give the usual paper reading a swerve ;)
Yeah Gods, I've had a quick look at Seifert's posting history. He reminds me of Adam Ant's Dandy Highwayman. Usually urging folk to sell their rotten shares. Really can't imagine why he wants to buy kaz now after maligning the company so much in the past. Have a good Sunday folks.
Not sure what you mean about "we" got lucky." Who is we? Sharendipity hasn't t got lucky with enrc yet as he/she holds at a loss. As far as I'm aware, you are currently holding neither enrc nor kaz so the only way you could have got lucky so far is if you have been shorting kaz - but then if you are not honest enough to admit that then that makes you as dodgy as the many others you seek to criticise on these bbs and if you carry on posting in the manner you do then Ant 1986 isn't the only one who will be putting you on filter so for one reason or another, no you wont be chatting with me tomorrow. If an offer is forthcoming tomorrow then it has to be voted on and I don't think there's even any clarity as yet as to who will be able to vote .
My thoughts exactly. I don't stand to lose that much and I'm pretty incensed at the idea of an even lower bid, and remember, we weren't even given the chance to vote on the previous media given bid, besides which could have been 5p for all we know. If I had invested at 400p plus, I would be through the ceiling, and I guess there are many in that boat who will be using those reports to wipe their you know what. RNS...then rage/relief :)
You have a right to feel irate, especially as you are down on KAZ, and it is here, the ENRC gang, who are primarily the cause of that However, it must be the case, surely, that one deals with likelihoods, probabilities informed by common sense, experience, suspicions and guesswork. You would not have brought in higher into KAZ without such introspective methodologies. It is these same methodologies that, for me, kept temptation at bay and I did not buy into KAZ even when I know they are very attractive prices. I suspected it would go lower on the foregoing considerations. So, really, you ought to be fair here, I think. Yes, we got lucky with our guesses, but they were informed guessed, as aforementioned. Good morning, and no doubt will be 'chatting' with you tomorrow.
No I am one of the posters on here who hasn't been ADAMANT about anything. I'm still not adamant about anything. It's yourself and Seifert who are claiming to know for sure how things will pan out without qualifying your statements with language such as possible, probable unlikely etc. Financial journalists can be as corrupt as all the other players on these stages as far as I'm concerned. I await the confirmation of the outcome here via rns not via other bb posters and newspaper articles.
someone on here tore my head off for predicting the following v recently, and was adamant the offer would be higher: 'But the big 3 have been 'fighting to take this private' (FT 3rd June) surely. Im in here and want a price hike monday but i fear 220p is the best we are going to see. Most pi's have fled. The RNS is likely to confirm a delisting. The game's up. Does anyone think a much higher bid is coming? I dont think billionaires think that way'. ho hum. good to see the back of them frankly.
I am indeed surprised that the 'gangsters' kept the same offer on the table, albeit depreciated by exchange rate moves and a lower share price. I always suspected that these people would never up their offer. The always expects others to bear the losses. The story on ENRC and this board is almost at a close.
Kaz will be affected by the fallout tomorrow. I still believe that is a good company, and will look to buy.
Private investors need only look to the LSE and blame it for ever listing this company. We can all guess the motivations behind this.
but no other sections of the media as yet. Until Mark K at Sky and Robert P at the beeb and the rns come out and say so, I remain a doubting Thomas though it is not filling me with confidence that I seem to be the only person on this bb currently holding both kaz and enrc. I'm going out to climb a hill - I might jump off. Only joking.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/10136746/New-3bn-offer-to-take-ENRC-private.html --- Private investors should blane the for ever allowing this gang of crooks to list.
The independent board does a u turn and now accepts? Very weird and clearly not that independent if they do. Kaz are the key tho, will they recommend it to their shareholders? Cant see that any offer would be made unless this part was a done deal as Like enrc power is concentrated in the hands of the few. What kind of negotiation has gone on here I this turns out to be accurate, no one puts in their best bid first time round, makes no sense, more money to be had if we have grown ups on our side of the table, get up and walk away if they are taking the ........
Yes, it's a more believable article and I laughed too, I also remembered the PR agency they employed so I think they are being played. I've done some reading on delisting and it might not be all bad, albeit not great, still pick up dividends and entitled to some recourse if it folds or is sold. Not sure how to sell shares though? Anyone? Have no fear, no one pays billions of pounds for something that cannot be fixed. They are playing a crafty game.
This article is actually worth reading in full in that it is able to quote comments made by a named source i.e. the kazakhstan Foreign Minister. From the article "Officials also worry about Kazakhstan’s involvement in the oligarchs’ plan to take ENRC private, saying it made little sense to buy back a company that is being investigated by the SFO and could potentially be liable for massive fines." And in order to buy back this company along with the oligarchs, the Government is willing to give up its stake in kaz plc lol http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43473d9e-da7b-11e2-8062-00144feab7de.html#axzz2X1SM8u8g
No idea. If this is the case, I cannot see how the committee, the kazak government, the board (not that they care), kaz or the ftse, can keep any shred of integrity. Reject, it's all you can do, gives the SFO a chance to get on with things.
enrc would open on Monday at £2.36? The way it climbed to £3.17 on rumours of £3.40
Looks like the only hope now is for the Kaz SP to rise over the next few weeks while the deal gets put to shareholders. The London stock exchange are as bad as ENRC for this fiasco!!!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/10136746/New-3bn-offer-to-take-ENRC-private.html Equivalent to £2.36 per ENRC share. Shareholders to agree to buyout.
I will definitely be in kaz for a while because I know that we will see 4.50 by December. Enjoy the rest of the weekend and I hope we get a very good offer from the trio on monday.
With kaz at its year low on Friday and enrc at below the tentative offer level and near the year low point, the market seems to be speculating that there will be no formal bid on Monday. Why would the bidders need to delay a bid until the eleventh hour in any case if they are desperate to seize ownership asap. No offer would suit some as there are no collective we in these situations though sharendipity says there is. I would view a bid from Kerimov for enrc as being positive for kaz share price as well as good for enrc in its current situation. Can't understand why the kaz govt. would want to lose its stake in kaz plc with the developments on the go at kaz over the next couple of years. There's subterfuge around here. Commodity share price fortunes are cyclical. We investors can also take comfort from the traders' old adage: sell in May and return on St. Ledger's day. Barely past the summer solstice sam so you stay cool, enjoy your holidays in the meantime. ATB
Ii agree that it has to be a better offer or they walk. Should tthe walk both Enrc and Kaz will drop further and it will be a much better option to buy more kaz shares than Enrc. Reason being that kaz will improve much quicker in the next 6 - 12 months than Enrc will. I will definitely be buying more kaz shares regardless of the Enrc outcome. Gl Peps
my average is above where it is now so keen for a higher bid, but i think ive been caught out a little here, small ish loss at moment. I still have a hunch the RNS wont be what we all want it to be.
I may have called you a smart cookie yesterday for trading enrc not kaz over the past few months which has been my own tactic but you're not that smart. You have posted like a greedy trader over the past few months with your position at any given time all too obvious for readers. When you have wanted to buy more here, you would employ scare tactics and vice versa. In a way, your sort are worse than Seifert who has at least maintained a consistently gloomy line. The tentative offer from the consortium was rejected out of hand for being woefully inadequate so they are hardly likely to come up with an offer which is worth less than that or the same in value as that so they are either going to come up with an improved offer or no offer. If it's the latter case then they have to walk away for six months unless another extension of time is granted which would seem unlikely. You're not a kaz shareholder but I am. kaz's reputation is on the line here if they don't make efforts to extract the maximum value for their "assets" Forget the traders, read what long-term kaz shareholders with voting rights think over on the bb last night. If the consortium are told to shut up for six months would the share price fall further?. Maybe - but it's not far off its year low point now! In that six months, the free float shortfall would have to be addressed and if Kerimov does have any designs on owning this outfit then that's when he would make his move on a company which let's face it probably needs a new owner as it is not performing well, has axed its divi and will be coming under the radar of the SFO. But we all have a good idea of the minimum Kerimov would have to bid don't we. Good luck to all the minority holders here - especially those in long-term. I will be making the most of the Scottish school summer holidays and tennis season and have a busy week next week so I'm not going to be around the bbs much . PS both my husband and I sold our lloy recently after holding for about two years or slightly longer in his case to get back into profit so I'll be interested to see how that one goes after Mr. Dippy's comments on the kaz bb.