focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
But the big 3 have been 'fighting to take this private' (FT 3rd June) surely. Im in here and want a price hike monday but i fear 220p is the best we are going to see. Most pi's have fled. The RNS is likely to confirm a delisting. The game's up. Does anyone think a much higher bid is coming? I dont think billionaires think that way.
Good news they are taking action to stem the information leaks. With the Dow Jones finishing up Friday and the formal offer due Monday we should see the sp advance..
The Times came out with 340p right before the bid was nearly 100p less than that. The press get told a load of lies on a daily basis.
No way is a lower or the same price as before will either be made or accepted. I just don't see the point - why would they be given an extra 3 weeks and told that their initial offer was low only for them to come back with the same offer. They might as well walk away so would have done so in week 1, 2 or just before 3
I don't how trio can put in a lower bid offer. If 260 "materially undervalues" ENRC why would a lower bid succeed regardless of current share price? That does not make sense. Also why would Kazakhmys accept a lower offer when the first bid was rejected as it was too low. The directors and board members of these two companies are not stupid. They knew that if the first offer was rejected the share price would go naturally go down due to the uncertainty. I think there would have to be a higher offer than last time or there will be no deal at all. Both companies can continue business as usual. ENRC may be demoted from the ftse 100 to the 250 but so have other companies. Some companies make it back too. The reuters article could have been written at any time between the last bid and now as the same would apply as the sp has only been dropping. It is one journalists opinion and speculation.
knows with these 3 playing about. Normal rules or precedents do not apply. It wont go to a second extension, the bid's unlikely to be the same as the last, so we're left with higher bid OR delisting. Have a suspicion they will take it private to take public eyes from the mess. Been the longest day in more ways than one.
Kerimov will be delighted then? Kaz would then need to take off another huge amount whose owner is racking up debt by the day. Not doing their trade relations much good either, I think they need to walk away.
This sounds more like speculation than news. I cannot refute what is being reported since I do not have a privileged contact with 'the sources close to the deal' as the journalist seems to have, but: - 'unlikely to improve' means the journalist has no firm notion of the terms of the 'new' offer, so if he does not know for sure why is he reporting? - Why would the trio stick to the original offer if the same has already been rejected? What's the point??? - KAZ did want more cash and I doubt they will lose face and knuckle down now; - KAZ has to put the decision to the vote, again I doubt the shareholders will settle for peanuts; - finally, there's us and the Independent Committee (though I am not sure how much we should rely on them): surely they can't put a gun to our head and force us to sell??? My feeling is 50/50: either the offer WILL BE higher, or the bid is going to drag on and eventually fail. Your views appreciated. P.S. Never buy anything with a russian tag again.
LONDON (Reuters) - The billionaire founders of miner ENRC are unlikely to improve a buyout offer first indicated last month, as they hammer out final details ahead of a June 24 deadline, sources with knowledge of the matter said. ENRC's founding trio and key shareholders - Alexander Machkevitch, Alijan Ibragimov and Patokh Chodiev want to buy out minority investors to take the group private after more than five years of bitter boardroom battles, corruption probes and an acquisition spree that left $5 billion (3.2 billion pounds) of debt. The bidders, backed by the Kazakh government, have until Monday at 5 p.m. local time to make a firm offer for the group. A third extension to that deadline could still be requested, but the sources said that was not expected. The cash-and-shares offer outlined last month - and rejected by ENRC's committee of independent board members - is set to remain unchanged, the sources said. The bidders, seeking to buy out the 46 percent of ENRC they do not already own, sketched an offer comprising $1.6 billion cash, plus the Kazakh government's 27 percent stake in rival Kazakhmys (LSE: KAZ.L - news) . "There are no more Kazakhmys shares and there will be no more cash," one of the sources said, pointing to ENRC's already heavy debt burden, which limits financing options. In reality, this means a lower bid, given a 20 percent fall in Kazakhmys shares since that initial offer. Per share, the trio's indicative proposal was for 175 pence and 0.231 of a Kazakhmys share - worth 253 pence using Kazakhmys share levels at the time. It is now worth 238 pence per ENRC share. ENRC is currently trading at around 219 pence, showing the market is also holding out little hope of an increase. "The bidding consortium can exercise maximum leverage in the knowledge that, given the state of the company and current market conditions, should an offer not be tabled, the share price will likely come under significant selling pressure," Macquarie analysts said in a note. KAZAKHMYS DECIDES? A bid at current levels will prove difficult for both ENRC's independent board members and Kazakhmys, whose shares are being used as currency by the government, but which is also ENRC's top shareholder with a 26 percent stake - a hangover from a failed takeover attempt before the miner listed. The independent directors have already said the current offer "materially undervalues" ENRC. But with the bidders holding almost 54 percent of the shares, there is little hope of an alternative, potentially forcing them to back an offer. ENRC has a free float of just 18 percent, with 3 percent of that held by Russian metals tycoon Suleiman Kerimov. Kazakhmys support is essential to any bid. Ultimately it will need to put any offer to its own shareholders but without at least tacit support for the mooted offer no bid is likely to be put forward at all, the sources said. Kazakhmys, which has long sought t
We're in it for revenge?! :) Like I keep saying, I hope Kerimov has them on the ropes and this was an opportunistic approach that hasn't gone quite according to plan. That said, I would have just fired in a bid of 250p and ignored the courting of the media, which makes your earlier point very valid Queen and other posters about flying their kite. This has been so messy you could write a book and I'll certainly not forget this in a hurry.
Not a million miles out from my own motives having been done over by an oligarch in the past.
heres the reason. These owners are crooks. The worst kind. And if you can make a lot of money from their mess and chaos, it feels triply lovely. I pray the bid is so big, it will make Stalins tomb look like a munchkin's coffin.
Don't understand why you are like a cat on a hot tin roof. I thought you had been trading these so wisely over the last few months that any you are still holding are freebies. You're a smart cookie though I'll grant you that in knowing to steer clear of kaz in that particular spell but the seasons change. Pastures new.
a humble Kazhak banker called Borat has been ordered to open the lid of those huge gas pipes at Astana flowing into western europe and tip wheelbarrows of sterling down them. The echoes of a billion tumbling coins can be heard round about now under the streets of Krakow, and they'll flood their way on top of some unaware dodgy broker in Shoreditch any time soon.
the traders are stacked towards a long position now and there is zero news flying around. Looks positive to me.
There has been enough pain here to deserve some considerable gain but will know soon enough. Bottom line for me is the Govt want this private imo, certainly they have given more than just their blessing as they have openly talked about uping their %....I keep coming back to what govt's want they normally get - especially when it's literally in their backyard and it's already partly their's anyway. Brinkmanship on price on both sides is clearly playing it's way through and it's first person to blink as ever. However, there is a bottom line for a Kaz and the independent board in terms of what they can/will accept so it's down to the consortium to get there - don't believe they can't for a second with a govt, 3 billionaires and a bank ready to fund it already in the room! Just driving a hard bargain til the last minute and giving everyone a bad head. GLA
in big yesterday - 941,777 bought.
I really admire your spirit and attitude, and wish you the very best of luck!
I was planning a lie down in a darkened room, regardless of the outcome, possibly for a week or two!
It's a viable explanation, although I was sure Kerimov was a thorn in their side rather than an investor coup. Not long to see anyway.
Today and Monday are huge days for ENRC, Mr Kelloggimov and my future. I have tea, toast, anti-depressants and a bottle of Krug on ice, depending on the outcome. The ural mountains are rumbling as we speak with the market tremors the bid will bring, creating mountains in holland, kent and every village on its way to the City. Strap in, bang on.
A few decent buys early on, I thought yesterday that we,d snap back to 242 ish prior to news but who knows what today will bring
"what all this have achieved?" Hopefully by Monday we should have a BETTER idea. ;-)
Seifert, in the few years I have been on the various stock exchanges, I have come to the conclusion that it is a very dirty financial world indeed. I am sorry if this may be a disappointment to some, but fundamentals and economic judgement are only a small part of the equation when it comes to share prices. A lot of it is pure speculation and manipulation by the big firms, which can put so much money on the table that they can call the shots. The rest is extreme emotions, fear, greed, panic, envy, personal bias, coupled by sophisticated algorithms on computer devices that only think in terms of numbers not common sense. It is a bit like a casino, but a dodgy one.