Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Berenberg valuation (125p) makes perfect sense and is likely based on deals such as Chevron’s proposed acquisition of Hess for 59B$, deriving $/bbl and assuming (possibly) a 1Gb net unrisked resource base in 3B/4B.
Can't help but feel Total and Qatar giving Eco the rest of the WI in Guyana at no cost, was part of this deal, unofficially.....
Eco did much the same before the 2b drill. 18p 1 year out to 45p during the drill. 50p plus post spud this time looks more than reasonable given the bigger potential in the CPR and the fact that Total are doing the drilling.
Perhaps interesting to follow Sintana Energy's share price development from summer -22 to the start of drilling in November -23. Nothing is exactly the same, of course, but it gives an interesting angle. 200% after drillstart, slowly increasing to that date. Feel free to check news under that period of time.
You might say that a farmout in Guyana would make a difference. We will see.
Did your mates at Aces bar tell you all that. Lol....
As we know the farmout was competitive with Total / QE winning. This was the best deal for Eco. They have the cash and remain with a meaningful share of the block.
The great news here is the new Operator will be Total. They have as a good, as anyone, understanding of the region and play and they have infrastructure in the area. They also have rig contracts for rigs which are / will be operating in the region.
Eco will only realize true value on firstly drilling and then finding commercial oil.
We are finally off to the races in the Orange Basin. The share price is meaningless right now for medium term holders. There is little doubt this will be multiples of today’s share price when we spud the first well.
Risk does remain. The Orange basin is little explored and the play not that that well known, never mind knowing where the sweet spot is.
Risk-reward with Eco. Not for pensions or orphans but the reward is massive.
Risk reward not so good no when looking at the market cap
As far as i can see there is no confirmation on drilling timescales, hence muted reaction so far
Find it interesting that our CEO points out the Guyana farmout, specifically, as the next big news this year.
Milestones in the form of regulatory decisions will occur continuously during the year in 3B/4B, these are events that are now in Total's hands. For ECO, we can get the upside of this, but management may concentrate on other farmouts.
Anyone, What is the last official close date for the data room in the Guyana block? Biginning of April?
12X potential opportunity. This can go huge any time. Time to buy and hold for substantial reward.💪💪💪💪💯💯💯
The cash is quite an important bit, Eco is less at the mercy of other parties in terms of activity in Orinduik.
This should hit 30p + before the drill but the time to completion and time to actual drilling is some time away yet. Good to see the team get a win.
If they're drilling major targets, 6.25% of the first drill could be much more valuable than 15% of Joe/Jethro was considered to be 3.5 years ago.
*move to clean up
As I read it. $8m cash to Eco on completion. Another $5m when the permits are granted and 6.5m on spud. MY take on the market reaction, or lack of it is drilling is at least 1 year way. Only impact here is $13m this year. Relatively immaterial to the SP, so no rush to pile in.
Also, I suspect will see AOI more to clean up its stake in ECO and that could be anything from purchase to sale in the market, both SP moving events. I would think this will happen reasonably quickly as they must have been discussing it for a while knowing that this was going to happen.
Still $20mil decent amount of cash
Correction:
Maximum transaction value is, including carry, of up to US$32.1m to Eco, which includes payments due to Eco from Africa Oil and Ricocure, not the 31 MUSD I wrote below.
Agreed, 6.25% in this huge block is also reflected the fact that ECO chose the money track; 31 million USD in stages.
The money trail strategy indicates that management sees a settlement in the Namibian blocks and or other strategic movement. ECO will now, once again, be an actor in the international arena for new projects.
ECO has, in practice, been a one-project company, another farmout lifts the company past its previous potential when it was, only - in practice, a company active in Guyana.
Also, now we benefit from Total bying into Tungsteen explorer.
Sp will get above 22p before the spud.. easy 100% from here
Total taking over is the best news eco could expect, total has the best knowledge of the geology and this farm in proves this block is all we hoped for.
With 2 funded wells and 20m$ coming its way eco is back in the game.
this is not 6.25% of orinduik for example, this block is 10 orinduiks..
Eco still got its dreams to chase with 100% at orinduik, and 80% in 4 blocks in the walvis.
Eco has just been derisked as an investment and drilling decision, rig contract, spudding and discovering oil are all catalysts to expect in the near-medium future, with more farm outs as the big bonus .
All together this is s very happy day for eco atlantic.
Is Berenberg a PR and paid for that - or are they independent?
Beginning to think ECO is just a front for a money laundering racket lol as progress has been stagnant on all fronts for too long. 6% just shows at what level we are operating at and even if we hit a sweetshop SH ain't gonna get rich. Would love to bail but no chance at these levels!
Seems to be very disproportional. Africa Oil retained 17% from 26,75% previous and we dropped from 20% to 6,25% really?
Can smeone in the know please confirm?
Berenberg note. Price target £1.25
https://twitter.com/LordBadshot/status/1765298644163387430
A muted reaction. Lets hope the hordes will arrive shortly!
Azinam its wholly owned subsidiary, will farm out a 13.75 is that all