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So, Tullow has.moved the needle on drilling in Guyana in a week.
Drilling all around indicates successful forays into the Cretaceous.
The petroleum system is deemed to be well defined and understood and the reservoirs well defined. Many targets are similar distance from shore as successful Exxon drills and the business need to.prove up.quickly to avoid a refinancing that involves any equity and gives them a chance at the jobs.
Any drill can fail but their understanding of the licence is increasing all the time.
It’s been one week and the unlikely scenario is already being proven wrong... like I said wait until the cpr and the targets and by that time I am expecting a lot more action.. one well is a minimum for this year.. especially if they drill very soon, and if they strike commercial light oil, I’ll be expecting a very aggressive campaign to kick in until the end of the year and beyond
Can you post a link to what you are referring to please?
Stop spouting fanciful nonsense. Drilling on Orinduik in 2020 is the unlikely scenario as stated by TLW (the operator) only the other day.
That's a very black and white position to take bearing in mind the permutations on offer.
For me the jury is still out and we will have a clearer picture shortly.
Given the prospectivity of the area, I'm not over bothered either way and Guyana of course is not the only game in town.
Hi noix,
Here's another line in the permutations - Total and TLW looking to (part) sell Kenya....
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m-a-oil-kenya/total-and-tullow-launch-joint-sale-of-stakes-in-kenyan-oil-project-sources-idUSKBN1ZM1FZ
Lots of moving parts, let's hope some align in ECO's favour.
ATB
In James we trust, can you expand on what you mean by the below comment on this thread?
"So, Tullow has.moved the needle on drilling in Guyana in a week."
EAs10
Look at your post of 16 Jan berating people for suggesting Tullow may drill.
"...it's unlikely, straight from the COO cant be any clearer than that..."
Now in the presentation it is possible that is a change in language and intent. Within a week.
The market still not rerating the share so how do they get that rerate - show they have 1.8bn barrels of likely Cretaceoys light sweet on Orinduik and 37.5% of however much of the light stuff Kanukku holds - by drilling.
So the needle has moved on what may happen.
Phoebus you sound worried that ECO might drill in 2020 - are you ok
James, that's what I'm asking. What presentation or quote from a presentation are you referring to that has "moved the needle"?
Also that's not berating anyone James, I'm merely highlighting the fact that Tullow have said they don't expect to drill in 2020. It's possible they will. However I'm suggesting we need to rely on official company statements from mgt or through RNS. You on the other hand are constantly posting that the will definitely drill in 2020. You are really scraping the barrel with "berating".
Here is a recent quote from you
"Whatever the 30% is struck at wont necessarily reflect Ecos value but by moving the exploration dial forward and giving an indication (through offer of carry) what the assets are worth if still bit proves them up the it is indicative."
Tullow presentation states a potential drilling option in 2020 for Guyana. This is what started the discussion.
Worried? For restating a fact that TLW stated only 8 days earlier? Get real. You sound desperate for ECO to drill in 2020 like a lot of others on here. Sadly the quality of comments on this board has gone to the dogs the last couple of week with posters falling over themselves to spin fanciful arguments proving drilling is extremely likely or definitely going ahead in Guyana in 2020 when the operator TLW said only the other day it was unlikely. It's embarassing.
As I said before, I expect a short term spike into the CPR RNS and then a drift until drilling is confirmed in Guyana (or Namibia) be it 2020 or 2021. TLW stated that 2020 is unlikley indicating a possible slot for December 2020 in their accompanying presentation, so even if 2020 is given the nod the timeline will likely slip to 2021. If left field events occur then of couse things can change, but it would be fanciful to consider that the defining factor in determining the balance of probabilities. That is how I see it and I don't really case if people disagree with me. If people have sensible arguments I will listen and when circumstances change I will re-evaluate.
Phoebus
Simply a difference of opinion, interestingly Tullow hasn't stated the option is December but that is the slant you put on it such that you can then talk about slipping to 2021.
Time ultimately will tell but this is the biggest potential prize in Tullows portfolio and they need good news.
Phoebus is completely correct.
For a company like TLW in their current position you concentrate on increasing production and efficiencies - you dont go ****ing money away on Wildcatting. They committed to Peru and Suriname in 2020 and so have to drill them - but plan nothing else.
Something like Guyana for TLW offers the carrot to the donkeys - something to propose to new investors in a big placing that likely to happen end 2020 or early 2021. The old, we need to raise 800 million but as part of that we will be drilling 3 wells in 2021 on these exciting Guyana prospects.........here is the carrot, come on, stump up some cash in a discounted placing please.
If they drill the option well and have a duster - they have just lost a big carrot to sell placing shares. Therefore I expect TLW to have a large fund raising late 2020 or early 2021 and then commit to drilling in Guyana. Until then expect them to just process the data.......come up with exciting leads to help sell that fund raising I expect them to do.
What would the shareholders prefer, a Cretaceous drill or 2 with 35% plus likely CoS or to have the value of their holding cut in half by a placing. The market cap of the business was £4bn only 3 months ago so having the value of your stake in it further reduced will appeal to nobody when less drastic options are clearly on the table.
Phoebus, chill... they stated it was unlikely.. and I kept saying that they will drill.. and atm it looks like at least one well will be drilled... if the cpr will be better than expected with big targets, I will be expecting at least 2 wells.. it’s very ironic that you of all ppl have always laughed at naivety of others for listening to the ceo.. but somehow are now surprised that they did a u turn on the unlikely and are considering drilling 1 well
Shpunken
It isnt even Gil I'm taking a steer from on darling expectations, it is thinking strategically what the biggest bang per dollar is you can get as Tullow is to drill.
May be worth keeping an eye on Tullow & Total pulling out of Kenya , this may have an impact on Eco's 20% holder Africa Oil Corp
Everything a ceo says I just take as info applicable on that day only... strategically they have to drill otherwise this might be it for tlw.. eco are too small to have a say.. total are the ones that my money is one to push everything to make the drill campaign happen.. there is too much oil for the big boys to sit around and do nothing, that’s why even after tlws update I was still sticking to my opinion that they will drill in 2020
Tullow holding back on drilling Guyana wildcats
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/tullow-holding-back-on-drilling-guyana-wildcats/2-1-740919
J, thanks for the link.
You know if we didn't know better its like Eco & TLW were no longer partners! I am sure there is more than meets the eye.
Lol it’s true, looks like a messy divorce.. best case scenario would be for tlw to sell their share and for total to become the operator
Hi all,
Meanwhile, from a global perspective, we can add this point of view to the mix :
https://economicconfidential.com/2020/01/oil-firms-stake-30bn-exploration/
Various mentions of Total, Exxon , Surinam, Guyana etc. Suggests - quelle surprise ! - that there'll be more 'churn' in assets as oilco's look to exploit quicker-payback opportunities in view of shortening (maybe) window for exploitation.
ATB
Much of the commentary around Liza is how quickly Exxon have brought the field to production. Now a repeatable, scalable process so new fields cheaper from FEED perspective and quicker to being to production
ExT I think that reads across to HUR in the opposite way, how.long with their FID and then how long to build.