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Ports,
being in the middle of carrying their due diligence wouldn't HIG know or anyway have a good idea about results before they're published?... I am not saying DX would provide them - but being in there and pottering around DX and chatting to this director and that manager while all the time stroking the company cat surely HIG would know much more the result than we'll ever do do prior to publishing
Yes I think they've been mid-month before, but no real trend.
Yes the dividend would be interesting, if they did announce then the payment turnaround would have to be a lot quicker than previous.
If the bid was made formally and accepted, from a timing perspective, how does that look for us? do they go off market straight away? thanks again
The results for year ending July 23 are due to be published in early October. It will be interesting if these are published before or after October 9th which I think is when HIG have to declare if they are to make a formal offer unless extended.
Perhaps HIG would want to go through the published final accounts before confirming an offer or pulling out.
HIG have already stated that they reserve the right to reduce the offer if DX announce a dividend.
Cheers Ports.
Yes it’s gone quick but still a couple weeks, wonder if they’ll conclude this on the 9th as planned or extend. Given the reference to multiple bids and acceptance by larger holders, I’d like to think it’ll be in line with current timescale but we’ve had our share of surprises
It's a disclosure of the current positions and remaining share options outstanding. if the offer is confirmed and accepted they will all be amply rewarded. I'm not convinced anyone else is in for them...I think we would have heard whispers and I don't think the share price would be where it is. But I may be wrong and there's still time !
Evening and apologies for the silly question, but the form 8, disclosing the share options for the 3 directors.
Is this indicating they've been exercised or just disclosure?
Thanks in advance
Could HIG be building a stake at a lower price? Would they have to RNS at this point?
See I placed order for sale at 38p 30mins before the 11/9/23 2.38pm RNS offer, lucky to get 42p.
The bid has traded around the 43p since .
Still have the older buy in W , which will be a loss .
Negotiations go on all the time between parties willing to do so. There are informal and formal negotiations. But they go on all the time!... Formal negotiations seems to me obliges parties to inform their shareholders. But of course to get to formal state they have to go through the informal stage which we small pis don't and might never know of... All major shareholders negotiate INDIVIDUALLY according to their own interests and they have no obligation to inform anybody, not even the board. They will do so if and when it's convenient to them to. Gatemore might have had their own negotiations with HIG. So might have Dunn and others - well before the board itself ie DX started their informal negotiations with HIG and then reached a formal agreement which they made public... But they might have had informal negotiations (i feel sure they had/have) with several other potential buyers ...
Great points all, I feel as if this all points to a sale to HIG
I think you raise a fair point sister. Presumably if this latest "possible offer" wasn't accepted by the board, Gatemore etc we wouldn't have known about it. I'm not 100% on reporting guidelines but it does seem a bit strange. The only reason I can think of is that they didn't want rumour in the marketplace which would have driven the SP up which certainly wouldn't have benefited HIG. It all seems very cosy !. Good Luck. Ports. !
Nice of you to pop by Sister. : )
A interesting point about the dates on the Letters of Approval and the RNS date which also reinforces Ports point about negotiations having been in play for a while.
Not only does the above come across as a "grey area" but, dare I say, is the way of the AIM!
No doubt most would still be holding had there been any inkling...
With all the nuances of the AIM, it'll be a long time before I can get rid of my 'L' plates!
Many sincere thanks for taking the time and sharing your pearls Ports.
I continue to learn enormously and am very grateful for all the contributions on this chat, which I believe will stand me in good sted.
Watching this space in anticipation.
GLA.
Having seen the news I just thought I'd post to say hello and it's certainly good news compared to where we were and what shareholders have been through if the offer is confirmed.
What strikes me is why none of the previous proposals that have been rejected were RNS'd. Don't they have a legal responsibilty to inform shareholders. I'm sure it's a "grey area" but if I'd have known there was someone sniffing around I probably wouldn't have sold.
I notice that the letters of approval from Lloyd and Gatemore were dated 6 September, 5 days before the RNS. It's obviously been going on for some time.
Anyway, best wishes all and I hope you all make a bit of money. Sister x
Both letters of acceptance have been posted on the relevant website as per RNS and they are worth a read. Interesting that Hargreave Hale have not declared their intention so far when Lloyd and Gatemores reaction to the possible offer was lightening quick. I'm beginning to think that no-one else is currently in for them. Negotiations with TIG must have been going on for months and the board must be happy with the overall proposal. If there was someone else in the picture I don't think they would have been so keen to accept this promptly. I may be wrong and that doesn't mean another competive offer won't come in but negotiations take time before offers are made.
No-one can force you to sell your shares Deep. It's only the terms of the process or the courts I believe that can do that.
If the possible offer comes and that's all it is, alot will depend on the detail. The final offer could be anything and it's my understanding Gatemore and lloyd will accept 45p and above. If the offer doesn't materialise the SP will probably drop back to mid 30 levels in my opinion if no-one else is around. That's not a risk I would take but each to their own.
May I please throw a couple of questions to the floor and please do excuse my naivety.
A non-binding offer of £0.485 has been put forward and HIG have until 9th October to formalise the same.
Would I therefore be correct to conclude if I decide not sell my shares in the interim that I will receive £0.485 per share upon 'completion' of the sale, assuming HIG do not change their minds &/or reduce/change their offer etc.
Secondly, as the SP has been hovering around £0.435, and notwithstanding associated risks, is it worth buying more shares?
I ask as there has been a flurry of buying activity since HIGs offer was made public.
PS
Wouldn't it be fab if competitors did emerge?!
Obviously we small pi's don't know what's going on behind closed doors. So whatever we say has to be counterbalanced by that. However the key seems to why HIG is buying. I can't see or imagine what HIG adding to DX and specifically improving on existent formidable DX's plans on growth and expansion and managing skills. It seems their buying is purely speculative. If that is the case a competitor is likely to emerge
That's a fair point PS65. In hindsight I should have mentioned all considerations. But I have always said that DX and recent weeks before the offer that the financial postion was relatively heatlhy. I never said that financially DX was badly managed and I never meant to infer it, infact it's managed pretty well in my view.Perhaps my wording was incorrect and lacked clarity and for that I apologise to all. Personally I do think liabilities are on the high side relatively all things considered but that's just my view. I just responded to Stemis point that liabilities are not relevant to a valuation.
Great argument and summary of assessing the value of DX. PS65.
Ports, I believe what Stemis was referring to was that you have mentioned "£100m of liabilities" about 3 times without a single mention of what the assets actually are. One without the other is not giving a full understanding or true picture. I nearly commented similar but thought it a bit of a waste of time in light of the offer.
If a company has £100m in liabilities and no assets, it is insolvent and unable to pay its debts. If it has £100m in liabilities and £1b in assets it has (on paper at least) a huge value, ie. £900m paper vale.
For clarity, the last available audited accounts (02/07/22) show Fixed Assets £145m, Net Assets of £72m, current liabilities of £75m and non-current liabilities of £86m - giving a net (on paper) value to the business of £56m.
This still not give a true reflection of value however as it does not include items difficult to value such as goodwill, contacts, its existing customer base (which can all be subject to opinion as to their value)
Even the liabilities you mention are not as simple as 'creditors to be paid', included in the £75m mentioned above is £10m of deferred income. This is not paid to anyone, it is simply sales that were invoiced in that year which need carrying forward to the next year because they actually relate to the next year.
Simple comments such as "they have £100m in liabilities" I find very misleading on its own. It gives the impression they have no cash and cant pay their bills. Cash is actually shown as £27m on the last accounts (and has increased over the last few years), and (not sure if still the case) but they also had a significant draw down facility available against sales (ie. short term borrowing if required), so I very much doubt they are struggling to pay creditors/liabilities which your posts seem to give the impression of.
Stemis... With all due respect are you seriously trying to tell me that a company's liabilities are not relevant to its valuation?
Why is it not relevant.?If liabilities are greater than assets then it is a sign of financial stress and the business may not be able to pay its creditors. If you were buying a business and considering an offer, are you telling me you wouldn't think its liability position was relevant ?
I have a different view on your final paragraph. We have no idea what HIC plan to do with the business. We know they see value that is why they have made an offer but they may plan to sell bits off. who knows.. But Is it relevant?
Do you really think seasoned succesful investment professionsals at Gatemore et al and Lloyd "can't see the value in front of their noses" ! and considered DX's potential before accepting the offer... Ofcourse they have. I've seen posters in various forums thinking the offer should be 60p plus, 75P or even a £1....based on primarily a PI's desire for more money. A business can be worth anything in the future... what matters here is what it's worth now.! I see posts all over chatboards from Pi's who own 0.0001% of the business who think they know better than seasoned investment professionals who do it for a living day after day or CEO's and think they can see value professionals can't. I'm not saying its true in your case and I certainly don't.
We can all sell our shares whenever we want, people sell for a variety of reasons. We don't know what the II's motivations may be to accept the offer but they obviously think it is an offer worth accepting.
Tuffnells demise isn't the game changer, its only a net gain of 8 depots. DX have said it will take 18 months to optimise and a margin of 10% is achievable only when everything comes together. Projections aren't that startling. If there is value that we are all missing that I'm sure there will be others prepared to make a higher offer...lets see.!
I don't know why you keep referring to £100m of liabilities as if somehow that is relevant to valuation. They are operating leases for which the vehicles sit at the other side of the balance sheet. DX have no bank debt but instead £38m of cash which will be lower in the next year as a result of the investment in ex Tuffnell and other expansion sites for which the P&L has yet to see the benefit. Easy to understand why HIG have chosen this time to make their move.
HIG bring nothing to DX to enhance its value; neither synergies nor the skills to reorganise the business. It's interest is simply that it believes it is getting it on the cheap because, it hopes, shareholders can not see the value in front of their noses...
Yep, I'm not in the same league as them... certainly as regards shareholding. What Lloyd, Gatemore et al make is of no concern to me. We have a different opinion as regards value but it's no problem. DX have 100m in liabilities and that's only increasing now they have Tuffnells infrastructure to bring on board etc. As a turnaround play DX attracted me... as a growth stock it doesn't but I fully appreciate others a have different opinion. If the offer comes we can all vote the way we want. !
Ports,
you can place yourself in Gatemore & Lloyd's camp but you're not in the same league as them... Try to calculate how much they are getting out of this - compared to you - and me. From my point of view DX promised much more than this offer - and it won't be easy to find a similar alternative
Confirmation from HIC today with confirmed support from Lloyd and Gatemore. Full of the usual garb but they obviously feel 45p+ is fair value at this point as I do. Some think it falls short but I am in the camp that takes the known rather than putting faith in the unknown.