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A bounce back from the daft fall the other day.
Who cares what Blackstone do when the UK power system in on a tightrope!!!
Look at spot lower prices and the forward curve.
Anyone want to sell that? PLEASE!!!
huge volume today for drax.....anyone know whats going on?
By EFFIX
"Just exactly as I said. This dud cannot clear 500p zone. It's been trying for a few weeks now and every time gets mercilessly rejected. Tons of sellers there. Sell and forget!!!"
No doubt he will be back with "this cannot clear 600p zone".
Excellent share.
“There may be some occasions when we see exports to continental Europe, however this is unlikely to be during peak times and should GB experience some tight/stress periods, we would expect GB prices to escalate and interconnectors to import,”
– National Grid ESO Electricity Winter Outlook
* Structural vulnerabilities in the power market makes security of supply less assured*
National Grid ESO’s Winter Outlook sees a capacity margin of 3.9 GW, or 6.6%, lower than the 4.3 GW or 7.3% it anticipated in it’s early outlook published in July with a loss of load probability of 0.3 hours, up from 0.1 hours in the early outlook. The reasons for the deterioration are changes to the generation mix with slightly lower gas-fired generation and the IFA outage which has removed 1 GW of interconnector capacity since the early outlook.
Unfortunately National Grid ESO has left its nuclear forecasts unchanged, which it explained in the early outlook was based on average availability over the past 3 years. This may be optimistic: as these assets age their reliability is rapidly declining. Right now, EDF has two reactors on planned maintenance, and five on un-planned outages, with seven reactors operating at normal full load. The winter outlook assumes a de-rated capacity of 5.4 GW for nuclear this winter (versus base case installed capacity of 7.1 GW, with a 75% de-rating factor). The reactors currently on un-planned outages have a combined capacity of 3.4 GW representing 2.6 GW of de-rated capacity or two thirds of the capacity margin.
https://watt-logic.com/2021/10/15/security-of-supply-3/
Have a look at nordpoolgroup.com
Scroll down to ‘Price development’ and click on the button for UK Day ahead prices.
We have had belting prices this week and the price for Friday…
This is all in October before the clock change when demand ratchets up further for lighting and heating.
They will be making enough at these prices to run the ‘spare’ unit that is not CFD or ROC. (I put the biomass cost at £60/MWh).
Their only constraint is sourcing enough biomass (great for Pinnacle either way).
On top of this is they have pumped storage.
My only concern this winter is if they have outages, other than that, nothing but live for this one.
@ Tues 22:06 - I continue to analyse and ponder the possibility of disinformation. Solve that puzzle in the next fortnight and it will determine further investment.
Drax is biggest polluter in the UK- sp falls - does that mean Drax is finished - I dont think so , Boris is desperate as are UK as a whole to keep the lights on and energy supplied with Putin having closed the gas taps. Drax will keep going up! It's not finished! Would means a multi billion pound project that UK relies on goes to the ground - dont think so- there will be a solution, Drax will come up with a solution.
Hmmm, not sure I fully agree with this. The BECCS/SP bit, yes. However, as recent circumstances are suggesting; Security of Supply > Cost > Sustainability (at least for politicians who will have an electorate to answer to if the lights go out or people have to choose between eating and heating). So if you own dispatchable assets in a wind-driven system, you are going to be OK until someone solves the storage problem. The same applies to the carbon accounting used to get to 'carbon neutral'. There is no viable solution I am aware of that can deliver 100% wind, solar etc without some kind of transitional combustion in the stack, and biomass seems to be the most acceptable option.
wont be many people left by 2027 after the poison mRNA experimental jabs have taken their course with never ending boosters to finish people off
BECCS is the only future Drax has after 2027 of succeeding when all subsidies will disappear and Drax will no longer make millions like present from generating electricity.
Burning biomass claiming it’s carbon neutral is a joke. The current claims Drax is one the biggest co2 producer tells it all.
Successful Beccs project and the SP will fly. Fail to deliver like many previous projects and it will die.
yip
lebanon in darkness
usa needs more coal produced to keep lights on too
a city in india of 19 million i read either in darkness or in danger of it
china manufacturing working 1 day a week to conserve energy and street lights off
blackouts worldwide coming
Further information. Word is that Drax and Engel have been dropped from the Blackrock iShares Clean Energy ETF.
Blackrock have declined to comment.
Ah well, the volume can be picked up by others in the market.
We aren’t going to keep the lights on this winter with good intentions alone.
thanks - that's helpful!
yes i know that but uk gov cant have it every way as they banned coal.....and sturgeon in scotland has banned shale gas...and is anti nuclear, oil/gas....and defence
i found this in search re austria, germany, swiss.........looks stagnant over last 2 years but could be seen as stable prices
https://www.propellets.at/en/international-prices-wood-pellets
Does anyone know what the price of wood pellets is doing?
That article is the only thing I can see.
I think it is daft as the CFD and ROC arrangements are set.
Would be very bad form to make such a change in policy especially as UK needs new investment in the transition.
It wouldn’t help.
I just think it is nervousness with the big moves we have had.
the articles below. just google drax and it talks about drax is biggest CO2 generator in UK and 3rd biggest in Europe.
does anyone know reason for sizeable drop this morning? or is it profit taking
You really didnt pay attention during your arithmetic or basic stats class did you effix? A quick review of the tend shows that in three of the past 5 years, the Drax share price actually rose over the colder months. In 2018 the share price did retreat across the year but this may have been related to unusually warm winter. In 2019/2020 its hardly rose before collapsing in early 2020. I seem to recall that most other equities were also part of that Lemming rush to disaster but presented an excellent buying opportunity which I was pleased to take.
I am sure you could restore your credibility if you were able to share the inside information you seem to infer you have access to but I rather doubt you can and a 'zone' equating to 8% around the current midpoint is a bit of a challenge for any share in the short term. Mind you, my GGP holding has made 25% today - does this qualify me as a 'big gun'?
Ps - did you enjoy the coloured chalks?
I see a 500p zone to be around 480 to 520p. And the zone is a range not a point. Clearing a zone is closing consistently above 520p. Enough of an explanation now?
Airfix03…I know you are busy building your model planes etc…but you constantly keep avoiding the same question….what is your take on “zone”.if the current price of 496p (which it has been for some time now) isn’t in the 500p zone then what is? You never seem to explain why this was NEVER going to get over the 300p zone EVER…that’s your words not mine….so please expand to everyone on this board….I bet you can’t!!!
Not the first winter coming and they never gained in share price at this time before. I know - this time will be different -)