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28-Feb-24 16:37:37 203.6014 1,000,000 Unknown* 2m
So this is the view of the Board taken from the RNS "The Board considered the Proposal with its advisers and considered it to be uncertain, unattractive, and that it significantly undervalued Direct Line Group and its future prospects while also being highly opportunistic in nature. Accordingly, the Board unanimously rejected the Proposal on 29 January 2024." Good for them say I. So either AGEAS come back with a more realistic offer or they depart, the ball is now firmly back in their court.
It seems that market cap is updating in (near) real time on this site under 'Fundamentals' - currently at £2.65bn.
With a total return 10-year gain of 4.08% pa annum (on yesterday's prices, according to Morningstar) this has been a dismal long-term investment.
Two fingers up at Ageas, we are going places and not being sold on the cheap. Too much potential with recent changes. Nice try though.
Thanks KK
DECIMAL POINTS IN WRONG PLACE.
Still seems cheap to me an offer nearer 300--325 would be a fairer price
CHEERS
Obviously, the Ageas SP fluctuates, and the GBP/EURO rate does too.
A year ago, Ageas SP was ~€42 roughly, and GBP/EURO rate was 1.12
That would make £1.49,
Every 1 DLG shares gets 0.03962 (to 4 dp.... calculation is 1/25.24047) shares in Ageas.
Current (as of 15:33 28/2/24) SP of Ageas €38.06 to buy
Current exchange rate is 1 GBP = €1.17
(1/25.24047) x 38.06 / 1.17 = £1.29
RNS value based on yesterdays prices (as stated in RNS)
£1.29 + £1 in cash = £2.29 at time of writing
As posted earlier
230p equiv
£1 + 130p ( Euro 38/1.17/25.024047)
38 is Ageas SP
1.17 gbp euro exch rate
25.02 etc rns conversion
I've run the figures and based on todays sp for D/Line and Ageas
I cant to the price of 233 for each share can someone please explain
eg 1000 SHARES IN D/L = £1000 1000 divided by 25.24 = 39 Ageas shares (rounded down) @ 38 each for the new share price . does not = £ 2330.00
Ty, HL had mcap at 2.04bn @ 204p which is obv not live. Ty, Krayz.
The board should be ripping off Aegeas' arm and begging them to take it or else they could easily walk away. Bloomberg says they have rejected the offer.Any dividend was only based on certain conditions being met.If they mess this up we are headed back down to £1.50.
We've done a lot to shore up the books and with average insurance premiums up by 30%, we should see a good update when we get one. Although fly in the ointment always being claims but as you say the fact someone is looking to buy us bodes well. Between here and Currys I'll lose all the hairs I have left 😂
Nicknaim - I wouldn’t sell based on today’s new. Quite a lot of advisor fees are spent getting to the bid stage. Like a mating dance, the first offer is always a bit cheeky. It’s the second one you need to wait for, and the possibility of some competition from new suitors. On balance, worth a wait.
Whatever the takeover value might be (assuming it proceeds of course), the deal should take into account the £520m cash received from sale of the brokered insurance business 5 or 6 months ago.
That cash must be sitting on the balance sheet, and if I recall correctly a 10p dividend had been mooted for April.
If it gets taken over, I won't get a DLG dividend,
Oh, wait, hang on a minute, I wasn't getting one anyway!
The "bug zapper trade" just about sums up the new kids on the block in the City. Clueless. For the most part, UK companies have a high dividend yield because they are generating consistent profits (there are always a few where the wheels come off due to a miscalulation e.g. DLG) but are undervalued because they are not the new "high growth" stocks that have become the most recent fixation of the latest City "slickers" (the previous generations of whom touted dot.coms to the heavens at the height of the late 1990s/early 2000s tech boom on the basis that profits were no longer relevant and purred about the so-called "goldilocks economy" in the 2010s which meant that the bull market would run on forever). Forgive me if I'm a bit sanguine about anything they say (growth, turnover multiples etc. etc. are all irrelevant if you can't return a profit).
DLG still has good brands despite FY22 having been an unmitigated financial disaster. DLG got its timing wrong. Coming out of Covid DLG thought that it could get a jump on its competitors and grab market share (its pricing was very competitive at the time) before it, and the rest of the industry, became fully cognisant of the post-Covid supply chain issues and the impact that would have on the cost of repairs and second hand car prices (it was unprecedented). Once the premium is written you can't turn back the clock and DLG was left to pick up the cost.
So looking like they dont take the offer as could be the likely scenario, wouldnt it be better to cash in today as your first profit if you bought in pre 160s?, been here before and greed seems to have a play only to see the share drift downward
Timed that triumphant post well didn't ya Porsche!
Thanks Mary
Well explained, especially the follow on avg 👍
Yep I have X … is there a handle I should follow ?
Thanks again 🙏
Current MC is £2.7b at 204.65p
£3.1b MC comes from 1311.4m shares X £2.33 = £3.055b ~ £3.1b rounded up
Average cost --- simple really
Buy 2000 @ 158p
Sell 1000 @ 195p
Average below 128p (121p)
Agree with the 233p value but not sure where the 3.1bn value is from as current mcap is
2bn at 204 so does this implies £3.00 - anyone care to reconcile?
[Ageas said the terms of the proposed cash and shares offer had an implied value of 233p per Direct Line share, representing a premium of 43% to 163.35 pence, closing price on Tuesday.
The terms of the proposed bid are 100p in cash for each Direct Line share, and one new Ageas share for every 25.24047 Direct Line shares.
Ageas said this would value Direct Line at around GBP3.10 billion.]
When were these ever below 128P ?
Shabz. I’m in the same position. My average is around 300p so today’s 40p+ spike has to be seen in the context of a previous 150p drop. I’m hanging in and hoping we don’t see a return to 160p if the takeover stories fizzle out. The fact that Ageas wants us suggests we’re a lot better with a lot more potential than the last half year’s results would suggest.
T