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Started: Huckl3berry, 14 Jun 2024 14:44
Last post: Tillerman, 14 Jun 2024 17:06
Mind you selling a 100million packets OTC for $2 profit a time to worried people in Japan vs a few thousand prescription cases at $1500 dollars each, you begin to see the power of prohylactics.
Perhaps just possibly in the long term as a prophylactic, never as a treatment for the full blown condition.
Is this something the XF platform could help with?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/flesh-eating-bacteria-streptococcal-toxic-shock-syndrome/
Started: Barnacle, 13 Jun 2024 14:27
Last post: Tillerman, 14 Jun 2024 12:09
POLX is a primarily a medical device startup is it not? Those are rarely good investments ime. I don't follow it but looked at it briefly a while back and dismissed it for that reason. Also US Co's listing in the UK is usually a red flag by itself .
The obvious medical device comparison for Dest is not POLX but Ondine (a Canadian co listing on the AIM is also a red flag imo), despite this and a poor record they have had no problem raising cash recently and on an ongoing basis on the back of their story, which is in the same space as but rather less compelling than Dest's imo.
They have started that no one is interested and they are at the beginning of going back to potential partners with he new P3 costing. I think that is a smoke screen, they know they wont get 100% external funding for P3 and IMO they have already made their mind up to raise funds which was obvious with the awkward response to the direct question about it.
The presentation was poor and did not look like something intended to drum up interest in a fund raising imo, they can do much better than that, for example very little was said about M3 which is curious in itself. Plus if Ondine can raise cash with little fuss Dest can, especially with their board. Finally the SP fell on relatively minor volume so there will only be limited stock at these levels.
Personally, I see a deal coming with an upfront payment, and further staged payments at key milestones. I think you are forgetting the huge potential and future revenues of this treatment. Any indication of a deal and this share price will rocket.
Have to agree with Bantham an equity raise looks likely, and even if not, the impact on the share price will not be positive in the short term.
Look at POLX to see how not to handle a placing, and they have an excellent product that is FDA approved.
That share was 75p on FDA approval day but dropped to 50p on future funding concerns. BOD did a presentation to 'settle' the market and it dropped another 20% instead.
Despite having a couple of heavily invested strategic partners the share kept drifting down to c5p and eventually the placing was done at 1p.
Unbelievable you'd think, but unfortunately not.
Started: VPatientInvestor, 17 Feb 2024 12:32
Last post: ripley94, 13 Jun 2024 20:49
Today spread 10% drop 10.64%
Topped up again 10.5p the order went through lower then the 11.5p limit set .
5% spread seen at 9.30am.
Yesterday topped up with a third tranche today at 15.5p on 30% one day fall.
Bep now 18.5p
With the market cap at £9m, surely the only way to raise that kind of money is 1) a buyout or 2) a huge dilution?
Chris and Nigel haven't been in their roles long at DEST. They've gone away and redesigned the phase 3 trial to reduce the cost from ~£60m to £25m and are now going back to potential partners and funders with this new improved proposition.
They are being written off on here as having failed to secure non dilutive funding way, way too early.
We wait and see but they only deserve the ire if they do end up placing tons and tons of shares at 10p or below, that is far from definite right now.
Ondine playing a poor hand well, Tovey/Rudd playing a mixed but potentially exciting hand badly. Ondine now valued higher than Dest despite needing to raise more cash sooner, plus having significantly higher cashburn and a much larger trial to fund, and last but not least no 500m partner tie up a la M3.
Topped up again 10.5p the order went through lower then the 11.5p limit set .
Saw 10% spread at the 9.15am buy time, 5% spread at 9.30am.
Started: ElderlyBird, 12 Jun 2024 10:38
Last post: edbowsher, 13 Jun 2024 14:41
My understanding is that you can't start a Phase 3 trial unless you can demonstrate that it's fully funded. Otherwise regulators won't allow it to start.
If they had omitted the words "existing cash runway" from the RNS I suspect most of the drop could have been avoided. The only thing the company appears to be truly "laser focused" on at the moment is the destruction of shareholder value.
A lengthy and well publicised strategic review does play to the BOD's sense of self importance however, but it is something other companies manage continuously without any fanfare.
Well Chris continues with the narrative that non dilutive partnerships are the focus and there is no change to that - there can never be guarantees that management pull it off hence can't stand there and rule out a placing but the focus in this whole trial redesign is to find willing partners to fund XF73 through P3.
Its seems fairly common now for companies to signal that they will be raising funds in the future rather than just doing it and taking the discount hit they also get the massive drop on sentiment, as if that is better for anyone involved, except maybe the broker placing the shares. Now there is no floor under the share price until the placing is announced.
The potential cost of OBI's 5,000 patient trial is rather large, hard to see how they could fund it themselves realistically. They will need to make some kind of nominal start to it in q3, as they have indicated, to enable them to keep fund raising. Their last results were not encouraging it is fair to say, considering they have been pushing the tech for some years.
Started: unhooked, 13 Jun 2024 08:41
Last post: Sefton82, 13 Jun 2024 09:02
One should always be very careful about BB postings Some can be brilliantly insightful. Some are garbage. And some are agenda-driven (trolls/rampers).
So, take my observation with a pitcher full of salt.
But I am out here. Sold down completely (and those aligned with me).
I think the company is a good one with potentially significant incipient VALUE.
But I always get nervous when it becomes clear that there is not quality investment banking advice being given. Because with these smaller IP-driven companies, the product is one thing - the much more important thing is the financing flightpath to VALUE crystallisation.
Fear of a sub-optimal placing is basically a Sword of Damocles over the SP of any compamy.
It would appear to me that there is no clear financing flightpath here.
I am surprised and disappointed that Sir Nigel could not have seen that and sorted it out.
Whatever.......I am out of this one.
Fair comment HarChris!
Haha and in case I'm accused of being a bit too positive after buying down here at these lows let me just say that I think that that 'fair value' below is absolutely BS!
In case I'm accused of being a bit too negative after the post below (lol), I should say that Equity Development released a research note on Destiny today. and they state fair value remains at 234p per share. Remarkable! For balance, I should say that Equity Dev. are paid-for content.
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/agm-statement-and-recent-progress?utm_campaign=Destiny%20Pharma&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--6LzJsRuq1CJQViPwiBhxkm-J4lRzQU-TFLv3y8k34kDUxvL3Umsb0Vhg5IViL9TRVqvafqlNrLbdPKCZu61hvLu2mHQ&_hsmi=311410597&utm_content=311410597&utm_source=hs_email
Last post: alamo55, 13 Jun 2024 08:53
Best to do it now as if it keeps dropping it'll be no better than 5-6p😣😎
Started: EquityDevelopmen, 13 Jun 2024 08:44
Last post: EquityDevelopmen, 13 Jun 2024 08:44
New research note here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/agm-statement-and-recent-progress
Destiny’s AGM included clinical and business development updates which we summarise below. In addition, there has been an increasing tempo in broader market news that helps augment Destiny’s investment proposition. These include the UK Government and GSK’s pledge on antimicrobial resistance.
The group CMO also detailed the revised clinical program for XF-73 Nasal and what struck us most was the expected £25m cost. To most potential licensors of XF-73 Nasal, this level of cost (and any upfront payments) would be a ‘steal’ for a license that gets them to the other side of Phase 3, the rights to XF-73 Nasal in some jurisdictions, and a pathway to a regulatory submission.
In a recent, well-received announcement, Destiny said its product XF-73 had been awarded an IPD that provides entry into the UK’s Innovative Licensing and Access pathway (ILAP). After a similar award by the US FDA of Qualifying Infectious Disease Product (QIDP) status, this means endorsement by two transatlantic regulators, plus many tangible benefits from access to ILAP.
Our fair value for Destiny remains at £212.0m (or 234p / share) since our recent changes to reflect the longer times until Phase 3 studies start and revenues flow back. Ironically the recent IPD award may shorten some of these timelines, while QIDP status also extends exclusivity.
Started: Sorcerer, 12 Jun 2024 23:34
Last post: Tillerman, 13 Jun 2024 08:32
The melodrama of this over publicised drawn out strategic review by contrast, is doing Dest no favours.
Without more time to pursue licensing opportunities, if available, of the reduced cost trial they don't even know what target they are aiming at.
ODI raised cash with little fuss recently at above par, enough to fund Dest for a year almost, that is all they need while they cut costs and get M3 back on track, italso gives the leeway to explore licensing. They did this by being relentlessly upbeat with the funding of their 5000 patient trial simply left an open question.
There isn't much you can do about that in this market for a cash hungry drug development company.
Those like me with a low average would obviously much rather a partnership with an investor that takes on the risk and funds this P3. Yes eventual profits to Dest would be a lot lower but at £11m mcap vs the $0.5B-$1B sales in the US alone they'd obviously be many multiples to the upside to be seen still if P3 is successful.
Only problem with raising the cash through a SI is that the SI will virtually own the company.
I watched the presentation this evening and I think it still all looks pretty compelling. They're basically saying that they're trying to get the industry to change the way that it thinks about antibiotics.
The investment case is still hugely compelling on so many different counts - there was a killer slide in the deck today that compares XF-73 Nasal to Mupirocin and you can see why this could easily become the new standard of care - it's the real deal and beats the current SOC hands down on all fronts. But, Big Pharma need to change the way they think about anti-biotics and understand how to unlock the commercial opportunity.
The revised P3 design is significantly cheaper, and has more specific end-points targeting the specific commercial opportunities they want to go after first. If Big Pharma still aren't persuaded, I expect them to bring in private equity as a Strategic Investor to fund the trials - I'm sure there are plenty out there who would be attracted to the potential returns on their investment - and having an SI on board isn't the same as a placing, they can be tied in with lock-ins etc. to make sure they see it through to fruition.
Started: katstrangler, 12 Jun 2024 14:54
Last post: katstrangler, 12 Jun 2024 14:54
If there's a placing coming i doubt they'd wait for the price to drop on this announcement so, on the basis sp is sitting mid 11s from 16 i can see a dilutive placing at around this price, having been agreed when sp was nearer 16. even a 30% discount would seem harsh, considering what asset they have.
and, if it's non-dilutive the... goodbye 20p.
One after the other biotech (AVCT, GDR, FAR and others) and others are going for placings. This is the 5th in less than 2 months hitting my portfolio. A part from me being a bad stockpicker, are there others seeing similar patterns? Do boards just follow the trend seeing that consequences are minimal and nobody will or can challenge?
Last post: Tillerman, 12 Jun 2024 13:09
The last thing we heard here, just a few weeks ago, was that talks about xf-73 nasal were effectively suspended until the new FDA approval (60% cheaper phase 3) was (hopefully) obtained, now it seems talks are in fact still ongoing but feedback does not seem positive ie. even with new improved trial design there is no one likely to sign up as a partner???
Thsat would seem a reasonable interpretation of the RNS, though feedback from the AGM may supply more nuance.
"While licencing activities continue, given our current cash runway, feedback from potential partners has led us to evaluate a range of strategic options. Our review of these options has continued since the Full Year Results and we intend to provide an update to the market in the coming weeks."
These are dangerous times to bet against a young pharma requiring a fundraise but the above wording certainly doesn't smack of one yet and certainly not immediately after the AGM.
Would this highly experienced management team really stand up in an AGM and signpost strategic options to be announced in a few weeks (so guided) that are just a fundraising campaign? Knowing that said path immediately damages their ability to raise at higher prices.
Surely if said options were only about a fundraise then they would simply get on with the fund raise and then explain why it was required after the event. This smacks of something else being in the mix which in turn may come with new equity. But then WTFDIK.
The bigger difference is that AGL had the market cap to raise what they needed via straight equity, DEST doesn't and hence there's a greater chance that DEST goes down a different route ie partnership.
If they do place though it will be highly dilutive unfortunately and a huge blow seeing as they were valued as high as 84p six months ago and there's been good news and progress since.
Agreed, but AGL were in a similar position and by addressing it early they managed to pull off a placing with a circa 16% discount. I would not expect a placing here to be heavily discounted either.
Not ideal but 6-9 months on runway is certainly better than negotiating when right on the edge like so many have found themselves in recently.
Started: nofear52, 12 Jun 2024 12:34
Last post: HotChip, 12 Jun 2024 12:54
I think the opposite, cash runway running out and need to fund raise & further dilution likely to happen imo.
This is a binary bet, so if you are happy with that than stay in there - its 50/50. However, this is high risk and the odds are heavily stacked against this progressing in a great way unfortunately.
DYOR
Watch these double in few months!
Last post: Sonnets, 12 Jun 2024 12:18
Wow how to unsettle a market.... Unimpressed Board
Started: unhooked, 12 Jun 2024 09:29
Last post: unhooked, 12 Jun 2024 09:29
Presentation and Q&A at 11am today
Started: DavidAsh, 14 May 2024 09:34
Last post: Nova888, 11 Jun 2024 20:41
What a load of rubbish
Certainly the biotech sector is out of favour at the moment, but that happens in the market,
sectors come and go, it`s all about Ai and tech , they`re flavour of the month, but bio will
come back, just got to hang in there.
That's exactly the dilemma for me, Tatty99. I've resolved it by bailing out this afternoon. Took a cold bath on it, which has eaten up the majority of the juicy profits I had made on Destiny Pharma back in January. I haven't had a single biotech come good for me, Destiny was the only one... and now I've just lost a good chunk of my previous gains here.
I wish all remaining holders good luck - I genuinely do, because anyone clever enough, brave enough and lucky enough to have made money on these sorts of companies will have totally deserved it.
Ciao!
Difficult to disagree with this prognosis. What to do? Stay in and risk losing everything or sell up while you can? This is a binary play. Only invest on actual good news not BS.
I’ve lost count of the companies I’ve been involved with who appoint a new CEO, credentials off the scale, only to find they’re in on the scam to bleed share holders dry. So here we are, massively underwater, a market that’s almost impossible to raise funds unless you do a GDR, POLX or AVCT style disastrous rase. Me thinks the new boy wonder is massively in over his head so expecting the worst unfortunately
Started: nofear52, 11 Jun 2024 08:22
Last post: Sonnets, 11 Jun 2024 10:26
Partnering and other discussions should be eased with this latest tick
NTCD-M3 Worth over half a billion in North America.
XF73 one step closer to licensing deal with passport today.
Started: s_o_h, 11 Jun 2024 10:23
Last post: s_o_h, 11 Jun 2024 10:23
Anyone going to the AGM tomorrow, can you find out more about the cash situation, and how solid the prospects for non-dilutive finance are currently looking?
Last post: ShangrLa, 11 Jun 2024 08:13
May get a long awaited re rating
Some good news!
Destiny Pharma for their AGM at 11 am on Wednesday 12th June.
Obviously no value here - only at phase 2 so there's ages to go for any result or sellable product.
Fundraise too soon so any holders will have their holding devalued by that! Haven't even got an XF-73 deal yet and it was supposedly a slamdunk/.
Started: alamo55, 8 May 2024 08:38
Last post: alamo55, 8 May 2024 08:38
.....for Octp shareholders today, dest could go the same way as investment in bio's in the UK is at an all time low
Started: kipper1960, 3 May 2024 13:00
Last post: kipper1960, 6 May 2024 08:02
Van, sorry I thought this was being read by people who could distinguish between opinion based on facts in the public domain and ramping. But I suppose if you cast the net wide enough you are going to catch a few morons
Kipper, you and brooko are in the same bracket, you have no credibility. You were ramping this at 80p, why should anyone take your comments seriously, you are down on your investment.
Interesting to note that OBI has a successful fund raise today and SP is up about 30% today. They are a company of similar size as DEST and in the same market sector. Their cash raise was at a 40% premium; yesterday's SP being about 5p, with the fundraise at 7p. I guess it goes to show that if DEST decided to raise cash to fund XF-73 trials - and that's a big if - then the fundraise could also be at a significant premium
Started: Bufflehead1992, 26 Apr 2024 15:59
Last post: edbowsher, 2 May 2024 16:38
I don't think it really matters whether XF-73 goes into a seperate company. New company or not, raising extra cash at current low valuations would be very dilutive for current shareholders. If miraculously, the share price has risen by October, then a fund raising wouldn't be so dilutive. But at current valuations, if you wanted to raise £7 million for a new company - say, XF-73 plc - that new company would have to own a big chunk of the product to get that fundraising away.
BigBiteNow, thanks for your work and comments.
Equity developments in their note have said:
“The clinical development program for XF-73 nasal is in transition while partners review the recently available protocol changes and costings.
Destiny could start the Phase 3 studies alone to increase the value of the asset before partnering, but this would require further funding that could involve a stock offering. All the options for XF-73 nasal will be explored in the strategic review.
Destiny have also discontinued and returned of the rights to the SPOR-COV program on commercial grounds since the emphasis of this product was the prevention of respiratory infections and evolved as a result of the pandemic. Destiny’s other earlier-stage programs are grant funded.”
My understanding is the Strategic Review will cover partnering and the potential funding for the company to conduct phase three.
The company has said it will consider a range of strategic options for XF-73 nasal, including licensing and the company securing finance to enable it to conduct the Phase 3 clinical studies. In the presentation with questions and answers the CEO said he wants to avoid dilution for shareholders. The fundamentals of the business remain unchanged except that phase 3 has been redesigned to improve it and lower the cost.
Destiny has said it will continue negotiations with prospective partners and also consider other possibilities to fund phase 3. This is a good move as it gives Destiny flexibility and enhances its negotiating position.
One option is to put XF-73 into a separate company. This would allow funding for this subsidiary company and avoid dilution for shareholders of Destiny Pharma Plc. This finance could be a combination of equity and debt.
While Destiny would be reducing its 100% ownership of XF-73, it would end up with a more valuable product after phase 3 and FDA approval. XF-73 would then command a higher price from a big pharma partner. Destiny would have a smaller share of a bigger pie.
Would a partner be found for the XF-73 company? There is plenty of cash out there looking for projects, especially ones that offer relatively low risk and high return.
Destiny Plc would only need funds for admin expenses and any non-grant funded development of t=other products. Once the Sabela deal progresses stage payments will be paid and contribute to the company’s needs.
IMO any news of a pharma deal or a deal funding phase 3 at a subsidiary company level will put this company right on track to meet broker share price valuations.
I would need to look closer at the Ondine data but I know it's not approved yet in the US because it also hasn't yet commenced phase 3.
In addition, a successful product does not remove the market for other follow-on ones. There are many factors that decide market share including price, effectiveness etc.
Personally I don't see Ondine Bio as a direct competitor to DEST. Although they are both attacking the same issue - AMR - they are completely different methodologies. XF-73 stops infection through medication, whereas OBI uses a device for Photodisinfection. Given that AMR is one of WHO's top 10 issues, there is plenty of room for more than one methodology to tackle the same problem.
Started: tom2468, 29 Apr 2024 09:32
Last post: Bantham, 29 Apr 2024 10:11
I agree. Fundamentals remain good. I had lost confidence over the Spring - but the presentation was solid. This should be at least - at a minimum - where it was before the results. IMO the results had more positive messaging than anyone expected. The price drop reflected the very poor RNS - hence a buying opportunity arose that i took.
Betcha