Member Info for VPatientInvestor

A brief look at Mr Tovey's LinkedIn raises interesting observations

Before joining Destiny, he had been COO of GW Pharma for >8 years, before it was bought for >$7bn (>14x sales from wiki figures) by Jazz (where he was also COO for 18 months, before stepping down)

He had a year before next appointment. No idea why - except to say he was surely (imho) in demand, and had the pick of many options (incl globally)

Why would someone with such experience choose to commit to a business worth >100 times less than the one he had led? He clearly thinks there's something in Destiny (he has said as much)

Interesting to note from wiki that 9 months after becoming COO, GW Pharma listed on NASDAQ. I've often wondered what effect that might have on Destiny, given the vast differences in valuations. Someone with such experience will have first hand insight to add to the already vastly experienced Sir Nigel Rudd as chair

I dig deep into basis of research note of 15 months ago, post M3 deal.

The assumptions were to take discounted cash flow (NPV) for both M3 and XF73.

And add 50% discount extra for M3 based on probability of success.

And 75% discount for XF73, given no deal for Phase 3.

Presumably if that later comes through (when) that discount would go to just 50%.

But note. XF73 x4 market potential for M3.

Of course possible future sales are guesstimates. Hence current market uncertainty.

Roll on XF73 deal and Phase 3 for both.

Not sure why there may be news next week (but who does? They need to announce promptly as it can move markets)

BUT ... a reminder there's only two pieces of news which would make material difference:

M3 Phase 3 progress

XF73 deal for Phase 3

There has been so much good scientific data on each that it's hard to see much more data will finally cause interest.

Am long term holder of Dest as the XF-73 is huge

As to short term, an observation

End of 2022, they announced deal for NTCD-M3. SP went from 30/35 to 50/60p. Increase 15-30p.

From presentation this week, XF-73 has x4 potential market size.

Of course, Phase III for each is key, when SP wld really change.